Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1205 AM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

An approaching wave will touch off showers/storms as it spreads
its energy across the FA tonight. While most instability will be
elevated, some surface based instability works in as the night
wears on. Dew points increase from the 40s thru the 50s, and may
push 60F by daybreak along the MO/AR border on breezy (and at
times gusty) south winds. Temps aloft will be cold enough to
marginally support severe hail there. Other than that, there is
nothing exceptional w/this system. Storm total qpf still looks to
be 1/2 to 1 inch, highest amounts west, least east. The energy
ultimately drags a boundary across the FA tmrw morning, and as the
energy at least moves out, the boundary should dissipate/lose
identity over the course of the day. Mean zonal flow aloft
transitions to a rebound in upper heights, as new storm
development takes shape in the Plains. As a result, we see dry
weather return, with a nice warmup commencing Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Breezy south winds Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front will
again give us temperatures well above normal, with highs in the
lower 80s, and lows Saturday night in the lower to middle 60s.
Models bring light showers into our far west and northwest counties
late Saturday night, with showers and eventually some thunderstorms
slowly spreading east across our region on Sunday.  The best chances
and most substantial rainfall will be late Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning with the passage of the cold front, and went with
likely to categorical pops.  The NBM lingers showers across mainly
our southeast half of counties into Monday night.  Looking at the
latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, this seems a bit overdone, but will
just keep some low end pops in for now.  QPF totals for this system
will be generally from around an inch up to one and a half inches.
These amounts over an 18 to 24 hour period should cause little to no
issues.

Temperatures Sunday into Sunday night will continue to be well above
normal, with highs Sunday in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, and
lows Sunday night dropping into the 50s.  Cooler air will be
filtering in by Monday into Monday night, and temperatures will be a
little below normal, with highs Monday in the 60s to around 70
degrees, and lows Monday night in the lower to middle 40s.

Dry conditions will return to the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
valleys for Tuesday through Wednesday as surface high pressure moves
from the central U.S. eastward.  Winds will continue out of the
north, so temperatures will remain a little below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

SHRA activity will continue through the night, gradually ending
between 09-15z, from northwest to southeast. TSRA is possible
throughout the area overnight, but most likely at KCGI/KPAH/KMVN
terminals. Some of the heavier activity will lead to brief periods
of MVFR or IFR vsbys. MVFR cigs are encroaching into the area now
and will progress eastward through early morning. Cigs will
deteriorate further into IFR range during the morning and may be
slow to scatter out through much of the day. Some guidance keeps
restricted cigs into the evening, but tended to go with a bit more
optimistic approach for now. SSW winds will gust between 20-25
kts initially before decreasing towards 12z and after. This should
tend to limit LLWS through the night even with a strong low level
jet producing winds of 50-55 kts at 2kft.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...SP
AVIATION...SP