Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
348 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

The line of convection moving in is more or less on track with CAM
modeling, within an hour or so. There is some concern the models are
producing minor inversions that may inhibit deeper convection, but
we're going to make a judgment that the overall forcing and
increasing layer ascent will overcome any such inhibitor. As a
result, convective drafts should be able to push down damaging
winds, especially in accelerated lines or quasi-linear modes that
are anticipated to evolve. Non-thunderstorm winds are already
gusting into the lower 50s mph, as expected, it won't take much
for damaging downdrafts.

The event should draw down this evening, as the convective line
exits our eastern counties by/before 03Z. After that, the forecast
is routine, and cooler. Some wrap-around may prolong a chance of
showers and delay a clear-out, as the actual primary long wave
trof does not fully pass until 24-36 hours later. Then it's high
pressure sliding in/overhead and cooler air, with 50s/30s temps
to finish out the near term.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

There will be another opportunity over the weekend for some light
rain in the northern half of the region as a minor mid level
shortwave moves eastward through our region. Otherwise, expect
gradually moderating temps and mostly clear skies through the
weekend. Early next week, the medium range models suggest we will
enter a wetter, but mild period as a complex series of mid level
shortwaves and surface low pressure systems move through our
region, with limited lightning potential. However, rainfall will
not be occurring constantly, but clouds will be on the plentiful
side.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Strong winds will be the primary hazard amongst a variety of
issues this TAF period. Southerly non-thunderstorm winds will
continue with 20-25 kts sustained and gusts to 35-40 kts during
the daytime hours. Showers will continue to move eastward across
the region, followed by an organized line of storms moving
eastward into the early evening. Thunder is included for the more
likely time of arrival. A temporary drop to MVFR or IFR vsby is
likely with the heavier rain/storms and a drop to MVFR cigs is
likely during and in the hours after the storms. A cold front
behind the storm line will shift winds towards westerly for late
this evening and overnight as winds decrease but remain breezy.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...DH/DB
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...ATL/DB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
259 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-311000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
259 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 PM CDT for the entire Quad
State, with the exception of Carter and Ripley counties in
southeast Missouri. Refer to the Watch for details.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire Quad State until 7 PM
CDT, for winds gusting up to 55 mph possible. Refer to the
Advisory for details.

Localized heavy rain my produce isolated flooding issues this
afternoon or evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 W VALIER              38.02N 89.14W
03/30/2022                   FRANKLIN           IL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
            OF 40 MPH RESULTING IN A POWER OUTAGE AND
            BLOWN TRANSFORMER IN VALIER, IL, JUST WEST
            OF BENTON, IL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1143 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW JACKSON           37.39N 89.67W
03/30/2022                   CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   PUBLIC

            WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAS CAUSED A FEW
            SHINGLES TO BE BLOWN OFF ROOF.

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1202 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW MURPHYSBORO        37.76N 89.35W
03/30/2022  E43 MPH          JACKSON            IL   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE. MINIMAL DAMAGE TO
            STRUCTURE. POWER LINE WRAPPED ON TREE.

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
428 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW ADVANCE           37.10N 89.93W
03/30/2022                   STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6 INCH TREE LIMB DOWN ON INDUSTRIAL DRIVE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
432 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S DEXTER              36.73N 89.96W
03/30/2022                   STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN ON HWY D.

&&

RST