Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
613 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

The forecast area remains under the influence of an H5 trough
centered over the Midwest. Small lobes of vorticity associated
with this trough have kicked off scattered thunderstorm coverage
this afternoon across southern and central KY, with some activity
impacting the CWA's far southeast counties.

Better chances for shower and thunderstorm activity will arrive
tonight into early Sunday morning as a frontal boundary sags into
the area. Have likely PoPs in our far west/northwest counties
tonight. A corridor of 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE is present here,
with modest effective shear of 20-30 kts. This could support a
few brief stronger cells, with strong winds being the primary
hazard. This is supported by the ongoing SPC Day 1 marginal risk
for this area. Scattered, non-severe shower and thunderstorm
activity will shift to the east through the night as the front
progresses. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the middle to
upper 60s.

On Sunday, mentionable PoPs will be confined to west Kentucky
where the frontal boundary will be located. Chance to likely PoPs
will reach a crescendo across the southern KY Pennyrile in the
afternoon, coinciding with peak diurnal heating. High temperatures
will reach lower to middle 80s. The entire region will be dry
Sunday night as the front departs the area and high pressure
begins to exert its influence. Low temperatures will fall into
the lower to middle 60s. Monday will be dry and pleasant, with
high temperatures again climbing into the lower to middle 80s,
with relatively tolerable dew point temperatures in the middle to
upper 60s. Low temperatures Monday night will again fall into the
lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

The long term forecast period begins with an upper trough axis
approaching the east coast while a ridge covers the western two-
thirds of the country. Northwesterly flow may bring a small scale
disturbance into the Midwest but ensembles keep precip north of the
Quad State. Meanwhile, a stalled out front across the Deep South
will limit the northward reach of Gulf convection. This southern
front slowly shifts towards the east coast by the end of the week.
Light northeasterly winds across the Quad State most of the week
will keep dew points in the lower half of the 60s until the end of
the week when moisture advection increases. A front is likely to be
positioned somewhere in the Midwest at the end of the week but
ensembles generally position it north of the Quad State. A slight
chance of showers and storms is included Friday afternoon due to a
subset of ensemble members that bring a southern stream of moisture
into the area from Texas.

Highs in the mid-80s on Tuesday trend slightly warmer with highs in
the upper 80s by the end of the week. Lows in the lower 60s with dry
weather midweek increase to the mid to upper 60s late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Generally VFR conditions are forecast outside of scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity. The showers and storms may result in
brief MVFR to IFR conditions. Winds will be light SSW tonight,
then veer to the west, northwest Sunday. Sky will basically
contain clouds tied to convection, from debris high clouds to
remnant lower level clouds mostly at or above 3000 FT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             1 S DU QUOIN            37.99N 89.23W
08/20/2022  E0.70 INCH       PERRY              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER REPORT OF DIME SIZE HAIL IN DU QUOIN.
            RELAYED BY WSIL TV. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

RJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1049 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

ILZ082-210430-
Hamilton IL-
1049 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Hamilton County
through 1130 PM CDT...

At 1049 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Benton, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mcleansboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 8837 3798 8837 3791 8868 3791 8871
      3812 8870
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 257DEG 32KT 3804 8880

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CN

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