Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
626 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

An upper level trof, currently extending from over the Great
Lakes region to Missouri, will continue to push slowly southeast
tonight. Concurrently, at the surface, a weak boundary to our
northwest will also be slowly moving through the PAH forecast area
tonight into Monday. The latest HRRR shows convection becoming
widespread across the entire PAH forecast area between 01z-04z,
then gradually moving southeast through the overnight hours. Went
with likely to categorical PoPs through this evening, then chances
will slowly decrease from northwest to southeast late tonight
through Monday. Our northwest and west counties should be dry by
Monday afternoon, with just a few light showers possibly lingering
in our far southeast counties early Monday evening. Additional
rainfall amounts are expected to be generally in the one to one
and a half inch range, with isolated higher amounts.

Portions of southeast Missouri, far west Kentucky and extreme
southeast Illinois remain in a Slight Risk for severe storms,
where we have had the best heating and least rainfall. If storms
can get going in the next few hours, we could see a few strong to
severe storms into this evening. This will be something to watch.

The clouds and precipitation have given us a break from the above
normal temperatures today, and this will also be the case
tomorrow. With lows tonight and Monday night around 70 degrees,
highs Monday will range from the middle 80s east to near 90
degrees west. The heat begins its return Tuesday, when we expect
highs to range from around 90 degrees northeast to the middle 90s
southwest.  With dew points in the lower 70s, afternoon heat
indices in southeast Missouri will reach from 100 to around 105
degrees. Lows Tuesday night will be much warmer in the middle to
upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

The long term forecast period will feature mainly hot and dry
weather through the weekend with an upper ridge building into the
Middle Mississippi Valley area.

With breezy southwesterly winds bringing in ample moisture,
Wednesday looks to be the most concerning day of the week for heat
related issues. Highs are forecast to be in the mid-90s for the
Evansville Tri-State to near or just above 100 in Southeast Missouri
with peak heat index values of 105-110 likely for most of the area.

A shortwave low moves across Lake Superior into Ontario Wednesday,
resulting in a weak cold frontal passage through the Quad State
Wednesday evening. While there is plenty of CAPE and DCAPE along
with high mid-level lapse rates, a strong capping inversion sharply
limits PoPs in the ensembles ahead of the front. The lone PoPs left
in the NBM are Wednesday evening for the KY Pennyrile area, as
precip chances are higher southeast of the forecast area. The front
will provide some temporary relief from heat and humidity, though
highs on Thursday are still projected to be in the upper-80s to mid-
90s.

The upper ridge expands eastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley
for next weekend. Some models are forecasting extreme heat,
particularly the operational GFS, though this appears to be way
overdone. Due to the clear overstating of highs in some models, and
the slight chance of showers/storms for the weekend in some ensemble
members that tend to occur in scenarios with a reduced intrusion of
the ridge, highs were nudged lower relative to the NBM
initialization, but still at or slightly above the 50th percentile.
This puts highs Friday-Saturday in the mid to upper 90s with
temperatures around 100 possible in Southeast Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the Quad State region
this evening. Clusters of storms in a very disorganized line will
provide for a few hours in which thunder is most likely at each
terminal. Thunder cannot be ruled out completely overnight or
with potential new convection in the morning in Western Kentucky
but is left out of the TAF due to low probability. Vsby will drop
with thunderstorms and heavy rain, and will likely remain somewhat
reduced overnight as fog forms. IFR cigs move in behind the main
storm line, especially for KEVV/KOWB, while other sites may only
drop to MVFR. Aside from thunderstorm gusts, winds will be light,
shifting from southwesterly to northwesterly.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...ATL
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...ATL
AVIATION...ATL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
523 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-182230-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
523 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms
across the area through tonight. The best chance should be this
evening. Damaging wind is the most likely hazard. Hail up to or
slightly greater than 1 inch is possible. A brief tornado or two
may occur, and produce narrow paths of wind damage similar to any
straight line wind damage.

Locally heavy rain is possible through tonight. While most of the
area will benefit from the heavier rainfall, isolated instances
of minor flooding cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Peak heat index values of near 105 degrees are possible Tuesday in
southeast Missouri, and heat index readings of 105 to 110 degrees
are likely on Wednesday across the entire area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this evening.

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