Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
613 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

Slow moving upper low was over the Mid Mississippi Valley region
early this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued
mainly along and east of the MS River. The general theme will be the
same again today through tonight. An increase in coverage is
expected through the course of the day, diminishing tonight. Locally
heavy rain is once again a concern with PW's at or above 1.8"
primarily over southern IL, west KY and southwest IN. Like yesterday
it will be hard to pin point favored areas given the wide range of
solutions seen in the short term, HiRes data. Convection should
progress steadily over west KY into southwest IN on the SE flank of
the low, while over southern IL, convection will likely move little
in close proximity to the low. Also, like yesterday, not concerned
with any marginal severe weather. We are not outlooked and agree
with that. Mid level lapse rates are once again o.k. for some
lightning, but otherwise poor, hindered also by a decent amount of
mid level moisture and a deep warm cloud layer on the order of 4000m
(Frzlvl-LCL). The overall mean flow is weak as well (slightly better
over west KY).

The focus for convection Labor Day should be a little farther north
(of the Ohio) from southern IL into southwest IN, and the KY
Pennyrile region. Drier air works in across SEMO and far west KY,
reducing the likelihood of anything more than isolated weak
convection. Then from Monday night through Tuesday night, we
transition back to a chance anywhere from time to time.

We stayed fairly close to the NBM for temperatures. Not enough
confidence with the clouds and convective influence to deviate much
from a blend. We saw this play out yesterday with highs from the
upper 70s some areas to mid to upper 80s elsewhere. There should be
a little more uniformity today. Like yesterday we steered the
overall forecast toward the HREF and NBM output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

The long term forecast period continues to feature a shortwave
trough over the Lower Ohio/Mississippi River Valleys pinned between
a large ridge over the Western U.S. and a ridge over the Southeast
coast. Midweek, ensembles are in moderately high agreement on a 500
mb low dropping towards the Lower Mississippi and many form a closed
low, with the GFS ensemble merely a little less aggressive with
closing off the low.

Daily chances of showers and storms will continue through the rest
of the week into the weekend. The lowest rain chance is Thursday as
northeasterly flow from high pressure moving across the Great Lakes
and the likely timing of the southernmost location of the closed low
shifts convergence areas a little further south. Otherwise,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon hours, with decreasing rain and thunder potential late
evening through the morning. Winds shift towards easterly Friday as
rain chances improve. Moisture levels will be slightly above normal
at 1.5-1.75 inches but below the 90th percentile for PW. The
tendency for slower moving storms can result in locally heavy
rainfall.

Model confidence is fairly high for the long term forecast period,
with the 25th-75th percentile spread for high temperatures only
around 5 degrees and slightly lower than that for lows. Highs are
likely to be in the low to mid 80s with lows mainly in the mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

With the presence of an upper level disturbance over the region
today through Labor Day, the forecast will be very challenging,
with highly variable conditions. A fairly large area of MVFR/IFR
conditions developed early this morning. Still mostly VFR across
the KY Pennyrile region. Conditions should improve some through
the day as we warm up, and mix out just a bit. Showers will be
scattered to numerous again today, especially along and east of
the MS River. Wind will not be much of a factor at all, light for
the most part. Conditions may go down again tonight, returning to
MVFR/IFR as cigs lower again and some restriction in visibility
develops.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....ATL
AVIATION...CN

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