Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
613 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from just
south of KSTL to just west of the PAH forecast area into north
central Arkansas. Based on its current movement, it should be east
of the PAH fa by 14z. Numerous showers, briefly moderate to heavy
at times, will continue ahead of the front, with isolated
thunderstorms mainly across west Kentucky into extreme southeast
Missouri. Showers will end from northwest to southeast through
the morning, possibly lingering into the early afternoon in
portions of the Pennyrile region. After early morning highs in the
middle 40s to lower 50s, temperatures will be dropping through
the day as much colder air follows the front. Temperatures by
sunset will be in the lower to middle 30s.

Skies will clear out tonight. Temperatures will drop into the
middle teens to around 20 degrees. Surface high pressure will
slide southeast out of the northern Plains into the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys by Monday night. West to
northwest flow will keep temperatures well below normal despite
plentiful sunshine. High Monday will be in the middle 30s
northeast to middle 40s southwest. Lows Monday night will again
drop into the middle teens to around 20 degrees.

As the surface high pushes east of our region, winds will become
southerly. Temperatures will remain below normal Tuesday with
similar readings to Monday, but will moderate Tuesday night into
the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

Unlike the Saturday morning ensemble model runs, the GEFS/ECMWF/CMC
QPF and height fields are more variable with each member.  However,
there is a sufficient enough signal from each ensemble model output
to at least support chance PoPs Friday into Saturday. The timing has
been at least consistent for this next weather system the last few
model cycles, with the NBM initialization providing a good
compromise.

The deterministic guidance appears to utilize a strong shortwave
diving south into the central Plains, then rotating through the WFO
PAH forecast area on Friday and Saturday.  The deterministic GFS is
the most progressive with this wave and further to the south than
the ECMWF/CMC guidance.  The ECMWF is the slowest and deepens the
low across the WFO PAH forecast area. The CMC is a little faster and
also deepens the low near the WFO PAH forecast area on Friday. The
degree of ageostrophic response and moisture advection is variable
with each of the models, so am ok with just chance PoPs for this
event, along with marginal instability/CAPE.

Backed off slightly on temperatures for Friday and Saturday,
dropping max/min temperatures by 1-2 degrees from Saturday's
forecast. Utilized a mix of the Canadian and NBM guidance for
temperatures during the extended forecast time period. Not extremely
confident on any diurnal mixed precipitation potential, but will
leave a mention in Saturday morning/evening for collaboration
purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 613 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

Cigs will continue to bounce between MVFR and LIFR at
KPAH/KEVV/KOWB/KMVN through 18-20z, then cigs will improve to VFR.
Vsbys will vary between VFR and IFR at KPAH/KEVV/KOWB/KCGI with
light to moderate showers, which will end from west to east
between 14z-18z. VFR conditions are expected from 21z through the
end of the TAF period. Variable winds around 5 kts will become
northwest to north at 10-18kts with gusts up to around 25 kts by
15-17z with the passage of a cold front. Winds will decrease to
5-10 kts after 00z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...RST

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
424 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
424 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through late morning, mainly
across west Kentucky and extreme southeast Missouri, with locally
heavy rainfall and winds gusting to around 30 mph the main
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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