Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Updated the aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Unsettled weather expected early in the short-term portion of the
forecast humid conditions in place. Relief from the humidity will
arrive Tuesday evening and linger through much of the work week.

Today and tonight: A shortwave/trough axis is expected to move from
northeast OK/northwest AR through our CWA from roughly late morning
through the afternoon. Timing looks to be fairly good with each of
the models with plenty of moisture and instability around to produce
showers and thunderstorms by late morning or early afternoon. Have
POPs increasing from west to east, with likely POPs in the afternoon
during peak heating and as the wave passes through the area.
Instability is progged to be around 1500-2500 J/kg by early
afternoon. Deep layer shear may briefly jump up to around 25kts
with a bit stronger winds between 5 and 7km, but overall flow is
fairly weak. Not out of the question for a few of the storms to
pulse up and become strong or marginally severe. The main threat
from the stronger storms will be gusty wind and marginally severe
hail. Much of the area is outlooked for a Marginal Risk of severe
weather and excessive rainfall for today. In addition, any of the
storms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall with PWAT
values expected to be around 2 inches or 150%-175% of normal. Not
really surprising with dewpoints surging to the mid 70s! Showers
and thunderstorms will linger through much of the night, but the
storms may become more scattered with loss of daytime heating.
That will be the case until the cold front sags south into the
area late in the night, which may concentrate another area of
showers/storms along and ahead of it. Temperature trends/forecast
will be a bit challenging with precipitation and cloud cover. The
going forecast maintains high temperatures in the mid to upper
80s with lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Tuesday through Wednesday night: The aforementioned cold front will
continue drifting south/southeast through the area through early
Tuesday afternoon. This will lead to isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms ahead of the front, diminishing from northwest to
southeast throughout the day. The front will drift south of the area
by Tuesday evening, bringing and end to the precipitation and
pushing the higher dewpoints south of the CWA overnight. High
pressure will then build across the area, leading to tranquil
conditions through Wednesday night. Highs are expected to be in the
mid to upper 80s (with a few 90 degree readings possible) and
overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, coolest across southern
IL.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

A large 500 mb ridge will encompass much of the nation late this
week. Mainly dry conditions are expected, aside from a few diurnally
induced showers or thunderstorms over the weekend. A slight increase
in temps and humidity will occur over the four-day period.

On Thursday through Friday, a surface high pressure center will pass
east across the Great Lakes. This high will produce a dry northeast
wind flow. Plenty of sunshine is expected. Afternoon dew points will
be around 60. Daytime highs will be 85 to 90. Overnight lows will be
mainly in the lower 60s.

Over the weekend, the surface high will move far enough east to
allow for some moisture return. Dew points will rise into the mid to
upper 60s. Daily highs will be around 90, with overnight lows in the
60s. A weakness in the 500 mb ridge over the Mississippi Valley
could help support a few diurnal showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the night
with the better storm chances during the afternoon and late
evening hours. Cig drops to MVFR are possible with the heavier
showers/storms, as are decreases in vsby. Fog may develop
overnight but cloud cover should be a limiting factor. Winds out
of the SSW around 7-10 kts today will shift to WNW tomorrow
morning following a cold frontal passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...ATL
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...ATL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
349 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-300900-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
349 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 /449 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today and
tonight, most numerous in the afternoon. Locally heavy rain and
lightning are the primary hazards to expect from the storms;
although, a few strong to marginally severe storms are possible
with gusty winds and marginally severe hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger through Tuesday
morning before gradually diminishing from northwest to southeast
throughout the day. Locally heavy rain and lightning are the
primary hazards to expect from the storms

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday,
mainly over western Kentucky and parts of southeast Missouri. Any
storms that occur are forecast to be non severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1242 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W DIX                 38.44N 89.03W
08/29/2022                   JEFFERSON          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUE ON N COPPLE LN, WEST OF DIX.

&&

ATL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1256 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

ILZ087-291830-
Gallatin IL-
1256 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Gallatin
County through 130 PM CDT...

At 1256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shawneetown, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Gallatin
County, including the following locations... Old Shawneetown and
Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3783 8808 3782 8809 3780 8806 3781 8804
      3780 8803 3774 8806 3770 8813 3766 8816
      3766 8826 3772 8829 3784 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 248DEG 9KT 3774 8819

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ATL

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
138 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

KYZ007-008-011-291915-
Marshall KY-Lyon KY-Livingston KY-
138 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Livingston, north central Marshall and Lyon Counties through 215 PM
CDT...

At 138 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Calvert City, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Eddyville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 29 and 49.
 Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 68 and 73.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3694 8826 3704 8831 3713 8820 3713 8818
      3714 8816 3715 8813 3716 8813 3716 8812
      3718 8810 3717 8804 3707 8797 3702 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 248DEG 18KT 3702 8822

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ATL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
216 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

KYZ016-291945-
Hopkins KY-
216 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Hopkins
County through 245 PM CDT...

At 216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Madisonville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Hopkins County.

This includes Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 109 and
115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3737 8730 3734 8734 3731 8734 3732 8737
      3731 8738 3730 8737 3729 8738 3726 8739
      3724 8753 3730 8757 3742 8734 3740 8733
      3740 8731 3739 8730 3738 8731
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 247DEG 19KT 3730 8747

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ATL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
246 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

KYZ007-010-292030-
Crittenden KY-Livingston KY-
246 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Crittenden and northeastern Livingston Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Joy, or 15 miles west of Marion, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Salem around 305 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8848 3746 8824 3727 8811 3721 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 240DEG 9KT 3732 8837

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RJP