Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Paducah, KY

009 
WGUS73 KPAH 011055
FFSPAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
455 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYC047-219-011400-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220101T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Christian KY-Todd KY-
455 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING 
FOR CHRISTIAN AND TODD COUNTIES...

At 455 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
waves of thunderstorms producing occasional heavy rain across the 
warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional 
rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash 
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hopkinsville, Oak Grove, Elkton, Fort Campbell, Clarksville, 
  Guthrie, Pembroke, Trenton, Lafayette, Allegre, Herndon, Clifty, 
  Justice and Allensville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8769 3697 8766 3700 8773 3704 8712
      3706 8705 3664 8706

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

RJP

537 
WGUS73 KPAH 011203
FFSPAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
603 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYC047-219-011400-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220101T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Christian KY-Todd KY-
603 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING 
FOR CHRISTIAN AND TODD COUNTIES...

At 603 AM CST, the heaviest rain has temporarily come to an end. 
However, several rounds of heavy rain overnight have likely caused 
at least some flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Between 
1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. New thunderstorm activity may 
bring up to an inch of additional rainfall to the warned area 
through 800 AM.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hopkinsville, Oak Grove, Elkton, Fort Campbell, Clarksville, 
  Guthrie, Pembroke, Trenton, Lafayette, Allegre, Herndon, Clifty, 
  Justice and Allensville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8769 3697 8766 3700 8773 3704 8712
      3706 8705 3664 8706

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

RJP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
523 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

Aviation section updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

The main concerns through Saturday continue to be flooding
and severe weather. As of 19z today, the leading edge of moist
and marginally unstable air has moved into western Kentucky.
Mixed-layer capes ranged from 500 to 1000 across most of western
KY. A few storms developed earlier today over west KY, but they
were likely elevated due to a capping inversion seen on model
soundings in Bufkit. If surface-based storms can develop this
evening, wind shear parameters are very favorable for organized
severe storm structures. However, this potential remains low at
the current time.

During the night tonight, large-scale forcing will increase ahead
of an upper-level impulse over the southern Plains. Rain will
increase in coverage this evening. As a strong cold front sags
south into the lower Ohio Valley late tonight, strong low-level
moisture convergence will result in a band of heavy rain. The
cams models suggest the heavy rain will initially set up near the
Tennessee-Kentucky border area late tonight, then move north.

On Saturday morning, a rather large band of training showers and
thunderstorms is forecast to occur along the front. Model qpf has
cycled back upward with the 12z runs. The nam in particular has
increased its qpf since yesterday. The exact amounts are probably
not well-handled by any model due to the mesoscale nature of the
training convection. However, href probability-matched mean qpf
supports isolated amounts of up to 4 to 5 inches in the watch
area. The href and wpc axis of heaviest rainfall is mainly across
western Kentucky down into southeast Missouri, south of a kcgi-
kpof line. The Flood Watch remains in effect for most areas except
the I-64 corridor of southern IL, which should be north of the
stalled front.

By early Sat afternoon, a surface low is forecast to track
northeast of our region along the front. The trailing portion of
the front will surge southeast across western Kentucky in the
afternoon. There remains strong agreement among the cams models
such as the hrrr that parts of west Kentucky will remain in the
warm sector for all or part of the afternoon. Therefore, the
combination of marginal instability, strong forcing, and very
strong shear will pose the risk of a significant severe weather
event as far north as the Tennessee border counties. The exact
northward extent of the significant severe weather still varies
depending on the model. The gfs and ecmwf remain quite stable
across western KY, but the cams models are likely to be more
reliable within 36 hours of the event.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

Two main areas of focus in the long term. First, a blast of arctic
air accompanied by some light wintry precipitation Saturday night
into Sunday. Then a second system Wednesday night into Thursday that
may produce more wintry weather.

Gusty northwest winds will usher in significantly colder temperatures
Saturday night. Sub-freezing temperatures reach our northwest
doorstep around 05z and transition across nearly the entire region
by 13z. While the majority of the precip is expected to move out of
the region before the temp drops below freezing, there may be enough
leftover moisture to squeeze out a light wintry mix. Soundings
struggle to generate saturation in the ice nucleation layer, so
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain certainly is still on the
table. Not expecting much, if any, accumulation though.

As we move into Sunday, there is good agreement on a band of snow
developing on the backside of the system as the upper trough axis
pivots through the TN and lower OH Valley. What is less certain is
the exact placement and timing of this. 12z GFS and NAM suggest it
primarily remaining south of our cwa down into TN. The ECMWF and
Canadian depict greater areal coverage of the snow and are also
further north into west Kentucky. GEFS and ECS ensemble members are
varied, but there is enough support from them to boost PoPs higher
and increase snowfall totals somewhat across west Kentucky. This
still looks like a minor event with any accumulations primarily
confined to elevated surfaces.

High pressure builds in Sunday night into Monday, setting the stage
for our coldest air temps down into teens. Highs on Monday will
remain in the 30s. Afterwards, stronger southerly flow boosts our
highs into the 40s, and perhaps even low 50s for southern counties
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Our next system looks to sweep into the region sometime in the
Wednesday night-Thursday time window. A strong upper trough is
expected to dig across the central U.S. with an area of low pressure
developing somewhere in the TN/lower Ohio Valleys. The exact track
of the surface low will be key in determining where any snow sets
up. There certainly appears like a decent chance for wintry
precipitation across at least portions of our area. With it still 6
days out though, fluctuations in the track are likely. Just
something to monitor for now. It took its sweet time in arriving,
but winter is finally here as we flip the calendar to January.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

VFR conditions early on this evening will transition to MVFR then
IFR in the 03-06 UTC time frame, with IFR conditions prevalent for
the overnight into Saturday. We will start off with SSW winds 10
to 20 kts and gusty at times. They will diminish in speed as a
front pushes into the area and slows down. We will likely have
widely varying wind conditions later tonight into Saturday with
low pressure systems along the boundary across our area.

Showers will develop this evening, then become solid and increase
in coverage overnight into Saturday along the slow moving
boundary. Some thunder is expected, especially across portions of
southeast MO into west KY. Flight conditions late tonight into
Saturday will be particularly poor say 50 miles either side of a
line from KPOF-KCIR-KPAH-KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ILZ081>094.

MO...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...CN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1220 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1220 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Tornado Watch is in effect for southern Kentucky and far
southeast Missouri until 7 AM. Refer to the Watch for details.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for most of the area. Refer to
the Watch for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A Flood Watch remains in effect for Saturday for all but the
Interstate 64 corridor of southern Illinois. Please refer to the
Flood Watch for details.

There is an enhanced risk of severe weather on Saturday across
the Tennessee border counties of western Kentucky, where the
potential exists for an organized severe weather event. Damaging
winds and a few tornadoes are the main hazard. Further north, a
few isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the rest
of western Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois
south of the Marion-Carbondale area.

Gusty northwest winds will usher much colder air into the region
Saturday night. Wind chills on Sunday will dip into the teens and
20s for many locations, which will be potentially hazardous to
storm victims without heat. Temperatures will struggle to climb
much, if any, above freezing for most of the area. There is also
a chance of light freezing rain or light snow Saturday night and
Sunday. At this time, any light accumulations are expected to
remain confined to elevated surfaces.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation for the Tornado Watch and Flood Watch is
requested.