Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1239 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

A few healthy cells have developed over southeast Missouri. There
is very little wind in the column, so individual cells should be
short-lived. There is a lot of dry air in the mid-levels, so some
gusty winds will be possible as they collapse. The strongest cells
could also produce some hail.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022

High pressure aloft that has brought the record heat of the past
couple of days will finally begin to break down today and Saturday
as we become squeezed between an upper low across the southeast
U.S. and an upper trof out over the Plains. There is some
indications amongst the deterministic models and SPC CAMs that a
cluster of convection may develop, esp this afternoon along a
moisture/instability axis along the MS River region. May need to
monitor for a few stronger storms, tho bulk shear seems limited.

A mid level short wave is progged to settle southeast into the
region Saturday within a weak nw flow regime, which could spark
some additional shower/thunderstorm activity , esp along and east
of the MS River. Wind shear still seems meager, 0-6 KM values
less that 30 kts for the most part. Thus, while a few stronger
storms may be possible, the severe threat appears quite low.
Saturday night looks primarily dry, as the shortwave moves east of
the area.

A more significant round of storms may affect the forecast area
later Sunday into Sunday night as a stronger H50 short wave and
associated cold front drop southeast through the mid/upper MS
River Valley. While stronger flow aloft may tend to stay to the
nw side of the sfc front, moderate westerly/northwesterly flow
aloft spreading into the pre-frontal warm sector could support
organized/strong to severe storms with some upscale/linear QLCS
growth possible. Locally damaging winds will be the main severe
risk, though some hail would also be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Surface high pressure is expected to make an appearance to start
the long term. Dry conditions and seasonal temps will be on tap
for Monday into Tuesday over most of the forecast area. Things
become a bit more muddled as we head toward mid week though, as
impulses will be possible within a progressive zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

The TAFs are VFR. Convection could sneak into KCGI this afternoon,
but may stay to the west. Outflow winds will be the primary
impact. Another round of convection could move into the KCGI and
KMVN areas before dissipating late tonight into early Saturday. It
looks like any convection later Saturday will mainly be over west
Kentucky. Pretty low confidence forecast in details. Some fog
development is not out of the question tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
442 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
442 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast, mainly across southeast
Missouri this afternoon, then across the remainder of the four
state region tonight. Though locally heavy rainfall and deadly
lightning are expected to be the main thunderstorm hazards, a few
stronger storms cannot be ruled out in southeast Missouri this
afternoon.

In additions, minor flooding will continue on portions of the mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday. A
few strong to severe storms will also be possible, especially
Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging wind gusts and hail look to be
the main thunderstorm hazards at this time.

Additional thunderstorm chances return, mainly Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Deadly lightning and locally heavy rainfall
are expected to be the main thunderstorm hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required, especially on Sunday into
Sunday night.

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