Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
222 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along a
stationary and outflow boundary across western OK near a mesolow.
As clusters and additional outflow emerges, additional moist
convection should start to spread eastward along within modest
instability axis. PWATs into the 90-95th percentile will support
efficient rain production and perhaps some localized flooding.
This precip loading combined with inverted V profiles/DCAPE along
I-40 may also support damaging wet microbursts similar to
yesterday. Later this evening and overnight the trend in coverage
should shift a bit southward as drier mid level air enters OK and
the surface low drifts southwestward. Low chances will persist
into tomorrow morning along and south of the Red River as a
result. The pattern will be similar by tomorrow afternoon/evening
but shifted further south. Most of our zones should remain dry but
the TX counties will have a good chance of receiving more. The
slightly cooler trend will remain present tomorrow afternoon with
easterly to northeasterly surface flow over OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

Near seasonal temperatures and dry weather will characterize the
late work week period...with a warming trend expected through the
weekend.

Ensemble/cluster analyses show remarkable agreement in the synoptic
scale throughout the long term period.  In fact, 100% of solutions
fit into a single cluster featuring an approximate 594-595 dam
midlevel high over the central CONUS.  Thus targets of opportunity
to deviate from NBM will not exist, as the range/distribution of
potential daytime highs (for example) is low Friday-Saturday. The
pattern does support relatively backed easterly to southerly low
level winds over Oklahoma and western north Texas on the periphery
of an expansive eastern CONUS surface high through at least
Saturday. The slight upslope surface component and northward
displacement of the upper air high and associated weak northeasterly
flow aloft will keep temperatures from getting too hot until the
ridge shifts a little southeast late in the weekend. Rain chances
look to decrease (from current) and remain generally south of the
Red River (south of the upper air high). With lee troughing expected
to begin to deepen on the high plains to our west by Sunday...we
will be at risk for another possible heat wave episode with
temperatures again reaching 100 to 105 deg F by the start of the
next work week/Monday.

While beyond the current forecast period, cluster analyses do start
to signal changes in the large scale pattern by day 8-10...with at
least 33% of solutions showing evidence of pronounced shortwave
troughs propagating through northwest flow as the ridge amplifies
well to our west.  This gives at least modest hope for a break in
the dry/heat prone pattern that again becomes established early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

A high coverage of scattered showers and storms is expected this
afternoon/evening across the western half of Oklahoma and adjacent
portions of north west Texas. While VFR conditions are expected
through most of the period, brief reductions to MVFR vis (along
with wind gusts to 30-40 knots) are possible should a storm
impact a terminal. At present, KOKC/KOUN/KCSM appear to have the
highest chance for this outcome.

Safe travels!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  95  69  93 /  60  10   0  10
Hobart OK         72  97  70  97 /  50  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  74  96  73  97 /  30  30  10  10
Gage OK           69  94  66  94 /  40  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     70  94  66  94 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         73  96  71  95 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...34

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1214 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through early
Wednesday with the greatest coverage expected later this afternoon
and this evening. Some of the storms could become strong with
localized damaging wind gusts and small hail, but widespread
severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, locally heavy rain
which could cause minor flooding and cloud to ground lightning are
the main concerns with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Wednesday but
chances will gradually shift south before ending Wednesday night.
Gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and lightning will be the main
concerns with any storms.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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