Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
207 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Ongoing convection is expected to continue to move eastward into
parts of north central Oklahoma by early this morning. Severe
winds and large hail are expected to be the main threats. Trended
down on temperatures this afternoon owing to outflow from the
overnight/early morning convection. Nevertheless, another day of
unseasonably warm temperatures is in store with temperatures in
the low 90s for most of the area, and into the 100s across
portions of western north Texas. Southerly surface winds will
recover this afternoon to about 15-25 mph across the area. Dry RH
values in western north Texas in addition to the gusty winds will
foster near critical fire conditions.

For this evening, winds will continue to be breezy through the
overnight hours. This warm advection will keep lows into the mid
70s for most of the area and in the upper 60s for northwest
Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

On Friday, unseasonably warm temperatures will continue across
the area, where most places will get into the 90s and into the
100s in western north Texas. Southerly winds will drive mid 60s
dewpoints into central Oklahoma Friday afternoon ahead of an
advancing cold front. Convergence along this boundary could foster
scattered strong to marginally severe thunderstorms along and
east of I-44 Friday afternoon and evening. Sufficient instability
and effective shear could help storms organize some, with the main
hazards being large hail and damaging winds. The aforementioned
cold front will cool temperatures this weekend and early next week
down significantly from what we have had the last several weeks.
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70s on Saturday and
into the upper 60s on Sunday and Monday, before gradually warming
back up into the 80s by the end of the week.

Medium range models are in good agreement with a mid-level trough
across the Western CONUS early next week. This trough will bring
widespread precipitation chances starting Monday early morning and
going into Wednesday morning. As of right now, thunderstorms
could be strong and are not expected to be severe. Flooding is
expected to be the main hazard. Subsequent forecasts will continue
to monitor these trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Mostly VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. An
MCS is moving through parts of the OK/TX Panhandle and are
expected to traverse northwestern and north central OK overnight.
Could see storms impact KWWR, KPNC, and KSWO into the early
morning. Otherwise, outflow from the aforementioned storms are
expected to alter the winds slightly out of the north before
recovering late morning and becoming southerly. LLWS could impact
KLAW and KSPS overnight and into the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  75  90  63 /   0   0  20  20
Hobart OK         99  74  95  61 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX 101  75 101  69 /  10   0  20  20
Gage OK           97  61  81  50 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     92  74  85  57 /  20  10  20  40
Durant OK         91  71  90  72 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
824 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-200130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
824 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late this evening through
overnight, especially across northern Oklahoma, as a complex of
thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward across the area.
Damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph is the primary hazard, but hail
up to the size of golf balls cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Heat...
Record to near-record temperatures continue on Thursday. Limit
outdoor activities and drink plenty of water. Be sure to
take heat precautions to avoid heat related illnesses.

.Fire Weather...
Near critical fire weather conditions are possible again on
Thursday with elevated conditions on Friday across parts of
western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Texas.

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible on Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible
over southeastern Oklahoma Saturday with widespread chances
returning Sunday night through Tuesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale/Barnes

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