Severe Thunderstorm Warning 621, NWS Norman, OK

565 
WWUS54 KOUN 280157
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
857 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

OKC065-TXC197-487-280206-
/O.EXP.KOUN.SV.W.0621.000000T0000Z-221028T0200Z/
Jackson OK-Wilbarger TX-Hardeman TX-
857 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...
NORTHWESTERN WILBARGER AND EAST CENTRAL HARDEMAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 900 PM CDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe 
levels, so the warning will be allowed to expire. However gusty 
winds and small hail will still be possible in southeastern Jackson 
County and far northern Wilbarger County.

LAT...LON 3463 9960 3464 9919 3454 9918 3454 9919
      3449 9922 3446 9922 3445 9923 3442 9923
      3443 9924 3439 9923 3439 9921 3437 9922
      3435 9919 3431 9921 3428 9921 3428 9919
      3424 9920 3427 9956
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 045DEG 26KT 3449 9937 3437 9934 

$$

..speg.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
635 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

Compact but potent closed low is clearly evident on water vapor this
afternoon as it continues to dive southeastward into northern New
Mexico. A few light showers are evident on radar ahead of this
wave across the panhandles into western OK, but not much is
reaching the ground at the moment. This will change as we go later
into the afternoon as ascent ahead of this wave increases, aiding
in the development of thunderstorms late this afternoon into this
evening along a dryline to our west across the TX panhandle.
Although surface moisture is somewhat lacking (dewpoints in the
upper 40s to low 50s), mid level lapse-rates will steepen with
the approach of the trough and lead to upwards of 1000-1500 J/Kg
of MUCAPE to the east of the dryline across far southwest OK and
western north TX. With 40-50 knots of deep-layer shear, initial
thunderstorm development will have the potential to achieve
supercellular characteristics, but activity is very likely to be
elevated. Therefore, the main threat with these storms will be
large hail as they enter into our area this evening.

Instability is forecast to wane with time as we go later into the
evening, with the severe threat likely diminishing as well after
midnight. Nevertheless, showers and a few thunderstorms will spread
north and eastward across more of western and central Oklahoma
overnight, with the heaviest rainfall totals focused mainly south of
I-40 and west of I-35.

As the closed low tracks along the I-20 corridor on Friday, light
to moderate shower activity is expected to continue for much of
the day across central and especially southern portions of the
area, while parts of northern Oklahoma are likely to remain
mostly dry. Temperatures will likely stay in the 50s during the
day tomorrow for much of southern and central Oklahoma and western
north Texas, while less precipitation and perhaps even some
breaks in the clouds during the afternoon allow temperatures to
reach the mid 60s across north-central Oklahoma.

Rainfall totals look to be quite beneficial for the southern parts
of the area, with greater than an inch of rain possible for much of
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas with isolated amounts up
to two inches not out of the question. Totals will then drop off the
further north you go, dwindling to a quarter inch or less across
much of northern Oklahoma.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

Shower activity will linger through Saturday morning across
southeast Oklahoma, with clearing skies expected during the
afternoon as the system continues to pull eastward. Some of the
models depict a trailing piece of energy crossing the area on the
backside of the trough on Sunday, bringing at most some light
showers to portions of northern and northeastern Oklahoma, but
overall ensemble support is lacking for this scenario so maintained
a dry forecast for now.

A warming trend will ensue for early next week as heights rise and
winds return to southerly. Highs will be back in the 70s areawide by
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Towards the end of the forecast period another trough is forecast to
deepen over the western US. Model solutions diverge regarding
details and how soon we may see impacts locally, but it has the
potential to bring our area another shot at much needed rainfall
towards the end of next week or next weekend.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions expected across our area tonight.
Developing convection in the far southwest part of the CWA may
impact KSPS and KLAW around 0400-0700, with reduced visibility and
gusty winds possible. A precipitation shield will develop behind
the storms and impact much of the area toward morning. Cloud bases
will remain low tomorrow particularly south of I-40. MVFR or
potentially IFR conditions are possible where low cloud bases and
rain collocate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  49  59  47  60 /  80  50  40  10
Hobart OK         48  55  44  62 /  90  80  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  50  54  48  63 /  90 100  30   0
Gage OK           45  58  38  65 /  80  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     47  65  43  64 /  50  10  20  10
Durant OK         50  58  49  62 /  60  90  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Norman OK
216 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281930-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
216 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, primarily this
evening, across western north Texas and adjacent parts of
southwestern Oklahoma. The primary hazard is hail up to the size
of ping pong balls with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

The risk for severe weather should decrease during the overnight
hours. However, rain with embedded thunderstorms will remain
possible across southwest and south central Oklahoma, and western
north Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
The chance for rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue
into the day Friday, primarily across southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
639 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

TXZ083-280015-
Hardeman TX-
639 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Hardeman County through 715 PM CDT...

At 639 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Kirkland, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Goodlett and Lazare.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 10000 3455 9989 3452 9986 3449 9982
      3448 9982 3442 9975 3441 9973 3438 9969
      3438 9963 3423 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 237DEG 28KT 3432 10005

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.