Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
726 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

In the short term the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning remain in
effect until this evening. The Red Flag Fire Warning remains in
effect for the same areas until 1 AM Wednesday. The strong MSLP
gradient across OK today and strong mid-level jet approaching this
afternoon from the southwest will generate the 30 to 40 mph
sustained winds and higher gusts that are already occuring over the
panhandles. These will overspread a large part of northwestern
Oklahoma through the afternoon driving any wildfires that exist. In
contrast, boundary layer moisture is advecting northward across all
but the western part of Oklahoma today. This will mitigate the fire
risk farther east. It currently appears that thunderstorms will
likely begin after 00z along the dry line just south of the Red
River and grow northeastward into a line through central and into
northeastern Oklahoma between 9 PM and midnight. Most of the
potentially severe weather is expected to move east of the
southeastern corner of Oklahoma by 6 AM. In the meantime a cold front
will have entered northwestern Oklahoma with gusty northwest winds.
A second wind advisory will be in effect for roughly the western
half of Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas for much of
the daylight time. Winds will subside during the afternoon in
northwestern Oklahoma and over central Oklahoma by sunset as the
front moves very quickly into the lower Mississippi valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

A shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains from the
north Wednesday night and will move east of the area by mid to
late morning Thursday. The main result will be an increase in mid
and high clouds with a low chance of light rain and or sprinkles.
Overall a light wind is expected Wednesday night and a few
location will approach or reach freezing by sunrise Thursday,
especially across northern Oklahoma. Although somewhat cooler
than the past several days, Thursday should bring abundant
sunshine and a light wind.

Another trough will approach the southern Plains late Friday into
Saturday morning.  Moisture return ahead of this system will be
limited, but enough forcing should result in areas of light rain,
especially across the northern half of Oklahoma. The air mass
behind this system will not be overly cold or dry, so very nice
weather is expected Saturday with mild temperatures and a light
wind.

A southerly wind will increase on Sunday as another system begins to
approach the area.  Decent moisture return on Sunday should keep
afternoon humidity from dropping below 30 percent, so overall the
fire danger will be low to perhaps elevated.

Weak to moderate instability may develop east of a dryline in the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles by late Sunday afternoon.  With only weak
forcing for ascent, thunderstorm chances will remain low.

A strong low level jet is expected to develop Sunday night which
may result in elevated storms. As a trough approaches Monday
afternoon/evening, strong to severe storms may develop along a
dryline in western Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Gusty winds are expected. Winds will be west to southwest this
evening, but will shift to northwest overnight as a cold front
moves through the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this evening ahead of the cold front with some stronger
storms potentially producing gusty winds and hail. There will also
be mid-level convection where rain evaporates before reaching the
ground, and these areas can produce some strong, gusty winds as
well and associated wind shear. MVFR (and potentially locally IFR)
conditions will be associated with the showers and thunderstorms,
and also with low clouds that are expected north of the cold
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  58  36  61 /  80  20   0   0
Hobart OK         44  61  36  66 /  30  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  51  64  42  68 /  80  10   0   0
Gage OK           36  59  30  64 /  30  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  58  32  58 /  70  20   0   0
Durant OK         57  70  41  65 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     015>020-022>029-034>038.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>040-044-045.

     Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>017-021-022-
     033>037.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-009-010-
     014-021-033.

TX...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.

     Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>085-087.

&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening
from around 9 PM to 4 AM early Wednesday morning. The slight risk
covers locations near and east of a line from Cherokee, to
Watonga, to Frederick, to Knox City, Texas. While damaging winds
will be the main severe weather hazard, brief tornadoes and large
hail cannot be ruled out.

.Fire Weather...
Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon and evening across northern and western Oklahoma, and
portions western north Texas.

.Strong Winds...
Strong south to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon,
especially across western and northern Oklahoma where wind gusts
of 45 to 60 mph will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Strong Winds...
A strong, gusty northerly wind is expected Wednesday,
especially across the western half of Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Wind gusts over 40 mph are likely.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances return Friday but severe storm chances
appear quite low. Additional thunderstorm chances are expected
Monday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             1 W PURCELL             35.01N 97.38W
03/29/2022  M1.00 INCH       MCCLAIN            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 39 WEST OF PURCELL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1101 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 NNW KAW LAKE          36.88N 96.91W
03/29/2022  M69 MPH          KAY                OK   MESONET

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>