Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
632 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Instability is increasing again as the clouds associated with this
morning's convection moves out and dissipates. A number of the
models have been showing precipitation developing in the west near
or ahead of the dryline and added POPs this morning for this
afternoon and this evening, and have expanded the POPs in time
through 06Z based on the current model trends. Any storms that do
develop are expected to be widely scattered given that there is
still a bit of convective inhibition, so currently do not think
that POPs higher than 20 percent are needed. Although the dryline
itself looks to remain farther west in the panhandles, surface
moisture will still mix out some in far western Oklahoma leading
to high temperature-dewpoint differences supporting an environment
where thunderstorms could produce strong downbursts. There will
be some hail potential as well given the expected instability. The
HRRR is explicitly forecasting some heatbursts with dissipating
convection late tonight. We did have some heatbursts overnight and
this morning, and the environmental set up would support
additional heatbursts this evening if convection does develop.

Another very warm day is expected tomorrow with triple digit
temperatures expected in the southwest. A surface front will
slide into at least the northwestern part of the area tomorrow
taking a little of the edge of the forecast temperatures northwest
of the boundary. With the hot temperatures and low dewpoints in
the southwest, minimum humidity values will fall to 10-15 percent
in the southwest elevating fire weather concerns, but fortunately
the winds will not be too strong as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes near the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 421 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

A fairly unstable upper-air pattern is expected to continue
Wednesday night through Friday, where a zonal flow with frequent
perturbations and shortwaves. Across southeastern Colorado
through the Texas panhandle, another round of storms will likely
develop along a boundary, however they are anticipated to
dissipated before making it into western Oklahoma and north Texas.

A more established troughing pattern arrives in the northern US
Friday morning, with an upper level cyclone moving through North
Dakota/Minnesota on Friday. A cold front extending from the
associated surface low will begin moving through the region Friday
night through Saturday, bringing much cooler, below average
temperatures on Saturday. Precipitation chances increase through
Friday night into Saturday, mainly along and east of I-35.

Large differences continue within the long range models/ensembles on
the upper air pattern early next week, in particular the development
of a trough across the southwestern US and the possibility of a
trough moving through the region, bringing widespread precipitation
chances. For now, low precip chances have been included, but trends
be monitored through the weekend.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

VFR will apply through the forecast. A few storms may try to move
into western OK from the TX panhandle, but confidence is not high
enough to include a mention at WWR or CSM. Mid to high clouds
will increase, however, over most terminals tonight. Wind speeds
will decrease overnight and then a shift from the north and
northeast is expected Wed afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  95  67  95 /  20   0  10   0
Hobart OK         71  99  66 102 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75 106  69 105 /  10   0  10   0
Gage OK           60  91  60  99 /  20   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     68  90  64  93 /  20   0  10   0
Durant OK         70  95  71  94 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1158 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
and evening across western and northern Oklahoma, and western
north Texas. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, but
large hail is possible as well.

.Fire Weather...
Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
this afternoon across western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma.

.Heat...
Record to near-record temperatures are expected this afternoon.
Be sure to take heat precautions to avoid heat related illnesses.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe storms appear possible over southeast parts of Oklahoma on
Friday. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
early next week.

.Fire Weather...
Near critical fire weather conditions are expected again Thursday
across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Texas.

.Heat...
Record to near-record temperatures are expected to continue
through Thursday. Be sure to take heat precautions to avoid heat
related illnesses.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

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