Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
529 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

The very warm and windy weather today will create critical fire
weather conditions across western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of
northern Texas. An 80kt jet streak will translate northeastward with
the mid-level short wave trough from northern Chihuahua to west
central Oklahoma early this evening. Cirrus will mute somewhat deep
vertical mixing, Even so, wind gusts around 40 mph are still
likely. The Red Flag Warning remains unchanged.

With rapid boundary layer moisture advection ongoing over most of
southern and central Oklahoma, showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected early this evening over southwestern/south central Oklahoma
and adjacent parts of northern Texas. These will be in advance of an
approaching dry line and also in the right rear quadrant of the
aforementioned short wave trough. Additionally, later this evening
and into the early part of Tuesday, a second mid-level short wave
trough (over southern California late this morning) is expected to
move across the southern Texas panhandle around midnight. This wave
will give additional cooling/lift over the moist boundary layer and
in advance of a triple point in west central or southwestern
Oklahoma. That will be the intersection of the dry line with the cold
front that is expected to enter northwestern Oklahoma early this
evening and then contribute to the severe weather potential
overnight as the front accelerates southeast. Although temperatures
are expected to fall 15 to 20 degrees rather quickly behind the
front, temperatures are expected to rise again under mostly sunny
skies until the main part of the surface ridge moves toward Oklahoma
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

Cold air will continue to move into the region behind the cold front
Tuesday night. The cold air combined with breezy northerly winds
will lead to dangerous wind chills Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Below zero wind chills will be possible generally along and
NW of I-44 with -10 to -15 wind chills possible in NW OK. A wind
chill advisory will likely be needed.

The cold air moving into the region will then set the stage for
winter precipitation Wednesday into Thursday. Models show
essentially two rounds of the heavier winter precipitation will
occur. The first will begin Wednesday morning and continue
throughout the day as isentropic lift increases across the area. The
primary precipitation type is expected to be sleet and some freezing
rain, with light snow possible on the NW edge of the precipitation.
This round of precipitation will decrease/end by Wednesday evening,
although freezing drizzle could be possible in some locations before
the next round of precipitation moves in. The second round of winter
precipitation is expected to move in late Wednesday night/early
Thursday as the main upper trough gets closer to the region. This
round of precipitation is expected to move out of the area Thursday
afternoon/early evening although this will be dependent on how
quickly the dry slot moves into and across the area. The second
round is also primarily expected to be sleet and freezing rain in
the area of heaviest precipitation, although snow will also be
possible further NW/N. There continues to be some uncertainty on how
much sleet/freezing rain and where exactly the most impactful winter
precipitation will occur. Right now, it looks like ice accumulations
of 0.10" to 0.25" will be possible across the southeast quarter or
so of the fa, with some locations maybe receiving over 0.25" in far
SE parts of the fa. Sleet accumulations of 0.50"-0.75" will be
possible in some areas.

So overall, two rounds of heavier winter precipitation are expected
with maybe some freezing drizzle in between. Sleet and some freezing
rain will be the primary precipitation types with snow possible on
the periphery. Still some uncertainty with more finer details. Some
travel impacts could be possible in some areas.

Winter precipitation aside, cold conditions are expected across the
area with temperatures not climbing back above freezing, once they
go below freezing behind the front, until Friday for some areas.
There is some uncertainty with this late this week depending on the
impact of any winter precipitation left on the ground. Temperatures
are expected to gradually warm through next weekend but still remain
below average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

We sped up the timing of frontal passage by about 3 to 4 hours
from previous forecast given observations of frontal movement and
latest high res model output. MVFR restrictions are expected
mainly across central and north central Oklahoma terminals with
high moisture availability and potential for restrictive TSRA this
evening into the overnight hours. Several hours of MVFR post
frontal cloud cover also possible from KPNC down through
KOKC/KOUN. Toward and after 15Z, forecast will be VFR
all terminals through end of forecast period. Northerly winds
will be moderate to strong, with most post frontal wind speeds
20KT to 30KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  33  37  15  23 /  50   0   0  50
Hobart OK         31  41  14  25 /  20   0   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  46  54  21  28 /  70   0   0  50
Gage OK           18  31   6  25 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     25  32  11  25 /  40   0   0  30
Durant OK         56  67  26  31 /  90  10   0  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ004-005-
     009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
725 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
725 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening through early Tuesday
morning across southern and central Oklahoma, and western north
Texas. A few of the storms could be severe with damaging wind
gusts and hail up to the size of half dollars across southern
Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas. There is also a low
risk of a brief tornado across southeast Oklahoma.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
southern and central Oklahoma, and western north Texas should
be prepared for severe weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Winter Weather...
A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible
Wednesday and Thursday. The potential for impactful amounts will
be primarily focused across the southeastern half of Oklahoma in
the form of freezing rain and sleet. The first wave of wintry
precipitation will commence Wednesday morning, mainly across
southeast parts of Oklahoma. The second wave of wintry
precipitation is expected on Thursday, with greater coverage
across Oklahoma and western north Texas but lighter amounts.
Impacts to travel is still a possibility, so stay up to date on
the latest forecasts and road conditions.

.Wind Chill...
Dangerously low wind chill values between zero and 15 degrees
below zero will be possible Wednesday morning across central,
western, and northern Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
511 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

OKZ033-034-036-TXZ083>085-087-088-220000-
Harmon OK-Greer OK-Jackson OK-Foard TX-Knox TX-Wilbarger TX-
Baylor TX-Hardeman TX-
511 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Jackson, Harmon,
south central Greer, Foard, Knox, Wilbarger, Baylor and Hardeman
Counties through 600 PM CST...

At 509 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking showers along a line
extending from 6 miles south of Kirkland to near O'brien. Movement
was northeast at 60 mph. Strong to possibly damaging wind gusts and
blowing dirt are possible as these showers move into southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Blowing dirt will reduce visibility for
         motorists.

Locations impacted include...
Altus, Vernon, Mangum, Seymour, Quanah, Hollis, Munday, Knox City,
Crowell, Benjamin, Chillicothe, Olustee, Eldorado, Goree, Martha,
Gould, Elmer, Westover, Bomarton and Margaret.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 10005 3424 10001 3423 10000 3485 10000
      3497 9945 3340 9895 3340 9999 3383 10000
      3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 233DEG 54KT 3429 10007 3340 9986

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
601 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

OKZ033>037-TXZ083>085-220030-
Harmon OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Greer OK-Jackson OK-Foard TX-
Wilbarger TX-Hardeman TX-
601 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

...Strong southwest winds will impact portions of Jackson, western
Kiowa, Tillman, Harmon, Greer, Foard, Wilbarger and Hardeman
Counties through 630 PM CST...

At 558 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking showers near Olustee and
Vernon, with additional showers out toward Swearingen. Movement was
northeast at 50 to 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar and automated observations.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Areas of blowing dirt will reduce
         visibilities for motorists.

Locations impacted include...
Altus, Vernon, Frederick, Hobart, Mangum, Quanah, Hollis, Crowell,
Granite, Snyder, Tipton, Blair, Chillicothe, Olustee, Eldorado, Lone
Wolf, Mountain Park, Davidson, Roosevelt and Manitou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 10005 3424 10001 3423 10000 3475 10000
      3506 9968 3512 9909 3439 9877 3384 9935
      3387 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 244DEG 49KT 3455 9951 3397 9905

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
757 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

OKZ047-050>052-220230-
Love OK-Johnston OK-Marshall OK-Bryan OK-
757 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Johnston,
western Bryan, eastern Love and Marshall Counties through 830 PM
CST...

At 757 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles southwest of Lebanon to near
Thackerville to near Muenster. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Madill, Tishomingo, Marietta, Kingston, Mannsville, Ravia,
Thackerville, Milburn, Woodville, Fillmore, Lebanon, Russett, Willis,
Little City, northern Lake Texoma, Oakland and Mcbride.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 0 and 13.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 9715 3374 9717 3380 9721 3387 9718
      3435 9675 3431 9641 3390 9664 3391 9665
      3383 9671 3383 9676 3387 9681 3385 9686
      3395 9691 3395 9698 3385 9702 3385 9709
      3382 9705 3380 9709 3373 9709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 222DEG 30KT 3395 9700 3383 9713 3367 9734

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
818 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

OKZ043-047-048-050>052-220245-
Love OK-Coal OK-Atoka OK-Johnston OK-Marshall OK-Bryan OK-
818 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Johnston, northwestern Bryan, southeastern Love, southeastern Coal,
Marshall and southern Atoka Counties through 845 PM CST...

At 818 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles north of Little City to near
Thackerville. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Durant, Madill, Atoka, Marietta, Kingston, Colbert, Caddo,
Thackerville, Wapanucka, Stringtown, Lehigh, Silo, Milburn, Tushka,
Caney, Kenefic, Mead, Armstrong, Cartwright and Fillmore.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 0 and 13.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 9583 3381 9652 3384 9662 3389 9659
      3392 9666 3383 9671 3387 9681 3385 9685
      3396 9693 3395 9700 3387 9700 3385 9709
      3382 9705 3380 9709 3373 9709 3372 9715
      3376 9719 3389 9718 3456 9614
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 226DEG 36KT 3414 9661 3379 9716

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11