River Flood Advisory 21, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
603 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Storms are currently ongoing in much of southwestern Kansas and
parts of the Oklahoma panhandles. In particular, the beginnings of a
complex in Texas (OK) and Stephens (KS) counties seems to be
developing.

Current expectation is for storms to congeal into an MCS and move
through northwestern and central Oklahoma in the 7z to 15z
timeframe tonight. Environment looks very capable of supporting
convection late tonight (SBCAPE: 2000-2500 joules, effective bulk
shear: 30-45 knots, MCS Maintenance probability: ~70). CIN remains
high for the first part of the night, suppressing most of the
convection through about 7-9z, but starts to erode after that as a
shortwave moves over the region. Damaging winds and heavy rain
will be the main concerns with these storms.

A few caveats: A few runs of the HRRR (02 and 04Z) suggest we may
get nothing overnight. The two environmental points that may lend
some support to this are: a) storms may struggle some with the
capping in place, especially if it does not erode as fast as
forecast, and b) the low-level jet looks fairly weak. That being
said, these runs are an outlier from other HRRR runs and most of the
rest of the CAMs. Additionally, with the otherwise supportive
environment and already developing complex in the panhandles, a null
solution seems fairly unlikely.

Some convection may linger into the morning hours before moving on.
Average temperatures are expected during the day (mid 80s in
northern Oklahoma to 90s in north Texas).

Tuesday night will bring another possible MCS into the area. This
shows up in most of the CAMs, though timing/area are still
uncertain. Severe hazards including flooding will be possible again
with these storms as a very similar environment sets up.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Models show the MCS parade continues through the end of the work
week then ridging begins to influence the region leading to a drier
forecast.

Models show that the relatively zonal flow with various weak
shortwaves will continue until later this week when the upper flow
becomes more northwesterly. This will continue the pattern of
overnight/early morning storm chances.

Storms could linger across portions of the fa Wednesday morning from
the Tuesday night's MCS. The chances for storms/MCS Wednesday night
into early Thursday are currently a bit lower but then it looks like
there will be a better chance for storms/MCS across portions of the
fa once again Thursday night into Friday with NW flow aloft and
another cool front moving into the area. Models show storms could
develop west of the area in eastern NM Wednesday afternoon/evening
then move east. There is some question on how far east the storms
will be able to propagate but looks like there is a chance the
convection could move into and across parts of the area Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Storm development with eventual MCS
moving across at least northern portions of the fa seems more likely
Thursday night into Friday morning. Strong to severe storms will
continue to be possible with these rounds of storms. Heavy
rain/flooding will also continue to be a concern. Of course, there
continues to be one caveat to storm potential and that is the
unknown affects of the previous night's convection.

Models show some mid/upper ridging beginning to influence the region
this weekend which will make it harder for storms to affect the
region. The ridging will also lead to warmer temperatures across the
fa.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

A thunderstorm complex just east of Clinton has been gradually
building eastward toward Oklahoma City. These storms will affect
KOKC and KOUN (gusty winds and reduced visibilities) through the
early morning hours before moving off to the south and east. Storms
moving east across northern Oklahoma have transitioned to just
showers. Winds will be more or less easterly throughout the day with
generally VFR conditions outside of convection. Late tonight another
storm complex is expected to affect the area, but confidence is low
in timing and location.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  69  82  67 /  50  40  30  30
Hobart OK         89  68  86  67 /  20  40  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  95  73  93  71 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK           85  64  80  63 /  30  50  10  20
Ponca City OK     85  67  82  63 /  50  60  30  10
Durant OK         90  72  89  71 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
416 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-080915-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
416 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Storms are possible over parts of central and west central Oklahoma
through the early morning hours. Some thunderstorms could become
severe with damaging wind gusts and hail. Flooding of low lying
and poorly drained areas could also be a concern in areas that
have seen recent heavy rain.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible again late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. The highest chances will be across the
northern half of Oklahoma. Damaging winds and large hail will be
possible with these storms as well as heavy rains leading to
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will remain possible across Oklahoma and western
north Texas through Friday. The storms will mainly occur during
the late evening into early morning hours each day and will be
most numerous across the northern half of Oklahoma. Some severe
storms will be possible each night with damaging winds and hail
the main concerns. Locally heavy rain could also cause a flooding
concern in some locations.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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