Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
230 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

The cold front responsible for today's active weather will be
exiting our forecast area this evening, bringing the chance for
severe weather further to the south and east. Behind it, an Arctic
airmass is in place with temperatures already in the low 40s per
regional observations. Lingering showers will be likeliest in a
developing deformation band in northwest and north Oklahoma shortly
after sunset. The upper-level low will be directly stacked over this
band, and with very cold air aloft most mesoscale models indicate
that some of the precipitation will fall as snow. With a warm ground
and marginal surface temperatures (near or perhaps even a smidge
above freezing), accumulations are not expected. Rain and snow
should taper off as the deformation band pivots out of the area
after midnight.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Conditions will clear tomorrow with rapid height rises following the
passage of the trough. Because of the strength of the cold front,
highs will likely  remain in the lower 60s. However, as a ridge
builds back in to our east over the weekend and into early next
week, temperatures will once more warm to above normal on the
strength of return southerly flow. By Monday, 60s dewpoints will
have returned to at least our southern CWA. Given the anomalously
strong moisture and a trough once more digging into the west coast,
storm chances will exist from Monday evening through Tuesday
evening. Another chance for rain will exist Thursday across much of
the area. The forecast will be refined further as confidence
increases.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will continue to
impact aviation weather this afternoon. The front is currently
from SWO to OUN to SPS and continuing southeastward. Storms have
developed behind it, with conditions frequently dropping into
MVFR/IFR. Gusty northwest winds and low ceilings can be expected
for several hours behind the front, with clearing occurring from
west to east overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  35  61  47  71 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         33  63  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  38  69  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           29  66  37  67 /  50   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     34  62  43  68 /  40   0   0   0
Durant OK         40  63  48  75 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
244 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051945-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
244 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
The greatest severe weather risk will be across southeast
Oklahoma, where tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are
possible during the afternoon and evening hours. This area of
greatest concern will be near and east of Ardmore, Ada, and
Holdenville.

Farther to the north and west, strong to severe thunderstorms may
develop along a cold front and dryline as they move from west to
east this morning into the afternoon. The primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail with a low tornado risk.

Thunderstorms should end from west to east Friday afternoon
through the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
The next chance for thunderstorms will be Monday into Tuesday,
mainly across southeast and central Oklahoma. Organized severe
storms are not expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
209 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

OKZ023-038-044-041945-
Cotton OK-Caddo OK-Comanche OK-
209 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Comanche,
southern Caddo and northwestern Cotton Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 209 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Faxon, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lawton, Elgin, Geronimo, Fletcher, Sterling, Chattanooga, Faxon,
southeastern Lake Ellsworth and eastern Fort Sill.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 23 and 62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3443 9866 3444 9866 3490 9829 3476 9809
      3469 9809 3468 9810 3468 9814 3464 9814
      3432 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 218DEG 47KT 3444 9854

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Zwink

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
212 PM CDT FRI NOV 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N CALERA              33.95N 96.43W
11/04/2022                   BRYAN              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AT CALERA HIGH
            SCHOOL. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

MDU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 PM CDT FRI NOV 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             ARCHER CITY             33.59N 98.63W
11/04/2022  M1.00 INCH       ARCHER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
233 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

OKZ052-042000-
Bryan OK-
233 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Bryan County
through 300 PM CDT...

At 233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Achille, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Durant, Caddo, Bokchito, Achille, Bennington, Kemp, Armstrong,
Hendrix, Blue, Utica, Albany and Calera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3377 9628 3377 9629 3374 9631 3370 9636
      3372 9637 3375 9641 3378 9643 3378 9648
      3416 9633 3416 9627 3404 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 208DEG 41KT 3384 9637

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mahale

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
249 PM CDT FRI NOV 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW CALERA             33.91N 96.45W
11/04/2022                   BRYAN              OK   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA IMAGES OF 18-WHEELER OVERTURNED
            ON US-75 SOUTHWEST OF CALERA. TIME ESTIMATED
            VIA RADAR.

&&

MDU

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