Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
642 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

The effective cold front has finally stalled from around
Cheyenne, to Seiling, to Enid, and Ponca City. Within the warm
sector, mesoanalysis suggests it is already very unstable with
MLCAPE around 3-3.5K J/kg and very little CIN present. Most CAMs
depict CI around 21-22Z or so, but given current environment and
enhanced convergence along the boundary would not be surprised if
this occurred slightly earlier. Main threat will still be very
large hail with supercells this afternoon and evening,
transitioning to a wind threat later on especially across
southwestern and western/central OK later as storms build upscale.
A couple of clusters could produce significant wind damage along
and south of I-40 as they progress eastward through tonight. In
addition, very steep low level lapse rates, low LCLs, increasing
low level flow, and a slight backing surface winds just ahead of
the front early this evening will result in a nonzero tornado
threat. The threat of severe weather should end after midnight as
CIN increases, although a few stronger elevated storms behind the
front will remain possible. Tomorrow's threat and location of
severe weather will depend on the progression of the cold front.
This will likely be influenced by how much post frontal precip
develops early in the morning. Right now, would lean slightly
further south near and south of the I-44 corridor. Generally, both
instability and deep layer shear appear slightly lower for
tomorrow but will remain high enough for supercells. Heavy
rainfall will also become a concern as more widespread rainfall
and training storms occur into the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Models certainly vary with regards to the position of an outflow
boundary(ies) and less so with a synoptic cold front late Wednesday
afternoon into early Wednesday evening.  Will continue with the idea
of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across the
southern half/southern two-thirds of Oklahoma and western north
Texas Wednesday evening and night.  The mid to upper level flow will
not be overly strong, but enough to support strong to severe
thunderstorms and areas of high rainfall totals.  The cold front is
expected to push well into northern Texas early Thursday which will
significantly reduce the chances of severe storms and heavy
rainfall.

Surface high pressure center to our north will generally keep winds
on the lighter side Thursday into Thursday night. Albeit weak, mid-
level warm air advection may result in scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms mainly across the Texas Panhandle. Some of this
precipitation may move into parts of western Oklahoma and western
north Texas overnight Thursday into early Friday morning.

Rather warm temperatures around 7h will overspread the area Saturday
into Sunday.  This too may result in late night into early morning
high-based convection with the area shifting more east each day.
There is also the possibility of a shortwave trough skirting the
area Saturday afternoon and night.  This may result in more
organized storms during the early evening into the overnight hours.
Very warm mid level temperatures may limit how far west storms can
develop.  Very warm to hot weather is expected Sunday into Monday
with rain chances limited to the far eastern part of the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

TSRA will be included most terminals through the forecast period.
TSRA will be most numerous/persistent across western and northern
Oklahoma tonight, with a small complex possibly moving toward
central Oklahoma terminals toward and after 05Z. MVFR cigs will be
widespread northwest half of Oklahoma late tonight and tomorrow
near and north of a slow moving cold front. While there will
likely be showers and a few storm lingering into the post 12Z
time frame, redevelopment of TSRA appears likely after 18Z near
central and southern Oklahoma terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  79  58  70 /  70  80  70  30
Hobart OK         68  82  56  71 /  90  70  70  30
Wichita Falls TX  72  92  61  75 /  30  50  70  40
Gage OK           62  65  50  71 /  80  80  50  10
Ponca City OK     66  72  56  73 /  80  80  60  10
Durant OK         73  90  64  77 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     015>020-022>030-035-038.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011645-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1141 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A cold front will drop south across parts of northern and western
Oklahoma today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front this afternoon and evening. There is an enhanced risk of
severe thunderstorms along a swath from southwest Oklahoma to
north central Oklahoma. Very large hail up to the size of
baseballs, damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 miles per hour, and
heavy rainfall will be the main hazards with these storms. An
isolated tornado is also possible, especially across far western
Oklahoma.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Flooding could result from heavy rainfall this afternoon and
tonight for portions of central and western Oklahoma.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel should
prepare for severe weather operations after 3 PM today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
The slow moving front will continue to be a focus for
thunderstorm development on Wednesday with a chance for another
round of severe storms across parts of the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
the main hazards along with heavy rainfall.

There will be a chance for thunderstorms daily through Monday.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Flooding could result from heavy rainfall on Wednesday across
portions of Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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