Special Weather Statement, NWS Spokane, WA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT Mon Jul 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The 4th of July will see another round of showers and
thunderstorms and will be on the cool side with highs in the
upper 60s in the Panhandle to the mid 70s near the Cascades.
The rest of next week looks to trend drier and warmer with
showers and thunderstorms isolated and mostly over the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Independence Day and night: The Inland Northwest will come under
influence of an upper level pressure system for one more day. The
low has meandered onshore with the center of the circulation
situated over western Washington. A couple of shortwave
disturbances will pivot around through this morning and afternoon.
The first is moving into southeast Washington with showers and
isolated thunderstorms forming out ahead across the southern to
central Idaho Panhandle at 2:00 AM. This shortwave is relatively
weaker than the next one that is quickly moving northward on its
heels. This second shortwave disturbance will push up into the
Inland Northwest later on this morning. Radar mosaic is picking up
on showers associated with this next wave from northern California
to central and eastern Oregon. Convective allowing models (CAMs)
show a band of showers that will increase mostly over south-
central to southeastern Washington after about 6 AM this morning.
This band looks to pivot northeast through the morning into the
Panhandle and then wrap northward across northern Washington by
the early afternoon. Mid level instability will be a bit weaker
with this feature with lightning expected to be fairly isolated
with some embedded thunderstorms possible.

We then see surface based instability in the afternoon mostly
across the Okanogan Highlands over the east slopes of the northern
Cascades where sun breaks will be more likely earlier in the day.
Dew point temperatures will be less this afternoon with P-wats
also coming down from around an inch on Sunday to 0.6 to 0.8
inches today. This is due to some drier air that was entrained
into the atmosphere over the region behind the shortwave that
moved through on Sunday. The atmosphere will continue to be
conditionally unstable, but this drier air entrainment will
result in lower CAPE's today compared to yesterday. Surface based
CAPEs off of the 00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions look reasonable with
values in the range of 500-800 J/kg in that northwest corner of
our forecast area. The lack of shear over that portion of our
forecast area should limit how strong developing storm cells will
get. We will still see the threat of heavy rain with
thunderstorms, but much less of a severe threat due to wind/hail
compared to storms that we saw in a higher CAPE environment on
Sunday. With P-wats being lower compared to yesterday, it would
seem that the threat for any flooding impacts will be any spots
that received heavy rain yesterday and recent burn scars.
Otherwise, there is less of a threat for flash flooding today.
Will continue with the Flash Flood Watch as is, although, the
Northern Panhandle has even less of a chances for seeing flooding
impacts today compared to the rest of the areas under the watch.

Temperatures today will remain below average and cool for early
July with highs in the mid 70s where we have more sun in central
Washington and highs in the 60s over the Idaho Panhandle where we
will see more cloud cover today.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: We start to dry out after an active 4th
of July holiday weekend. Temperatures will rebound with back into
the mid 70s to low 80s. Any threat of showers looks to be near the
Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue Mountains, and possibly
right near the Canadian border over the far northern mountains.
/SVH

Wednesday through Monday: The region will be a southerly flow
pattern as it is in between a ridge to the East and a Low off the
coast. It will lead to a warming trend for the region. Models have
increased the amount the amount moisture with the pattern from
previous runs. The Inland Northwest can expect periods of rain
showers with isolated thunderstorms. The better chances are the ID
Panhandle and Cascades. Afternoon winds will increase across the
Basin. Gusts are expected to reach near mid 20 MPH. Highs for the
period will be it the 80s and low 90s through the end of the week.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s and low 60s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A deep upper level low pressure system will be situated
over western Washington through this afternoon. There is ample
boundary layer moisture across the northern mountain valleys where
marginal VFR to IFR conditions around Republic to Colville and the
Northern Panhandle. Showers will increase in coverage this morning
as a shortwave disturbance rounds the upper level low. The
atmosphere will destabilize with diurnal heating mostly over the
Cascades to the Okanogan Highlands where the best chances for
thunderstorms is expected for the afternoon. Thunderstorms over
the east slopes of the Cascades will shift off the higher terrain
toward KEAT, KEPH, and KMHW late in the afternoon into the early
evening. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  50  78  58  84  58 /  60   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d'Alene  67  49  78  56  84  57 /  70  10   0  10  10  10
Pullman        66  50  76  56  80  55 /  60   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       74  55  85  61  88  63 /  70  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       69  47  78  53  84  53 /  80  30   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      68  48  75  53  84  57 /  80  20   0  10  10  20
Kellogg        66  50  76  58  82  60 /  70  10  10  10  20  20
Moses Lake     76  53  83  61  87  59 /  20  20   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee      76  55  81  62  83  61 /  30  30  10  10  30  10
Omak           75  52  81  58  83  57 /  50  30  10  10  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch through this evening for Northern Panhandle.

WA...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Chelan County-
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-
     Western Okanogan County.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Spokane WA
556 AM PDT Mon Jul 4 2022

IDZ001-WAZ037-038-041-043-044-047>049-051300-
Northern Panhandle-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Wenatchee Area-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-
Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-
Western Okanogan County-
556 AM PDT Mon Jul 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Idaho...
Central Washington...North Central Washington and Northeast
Washington.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected today.
Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the late morning
and afternoon hours. Storms will be capable of producing very
heavy rain with flash flooding and debris flows possible,
especially in steep terrain and near recent burn scars. Stronger
storms will also be capable of producing small hail and gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Please refer to our Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=otx for the latest information
on potential weather hazards in the region.

IDZ002>004-026-027-WAZ031>036-051300-
Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Central Panhandle Mountains-
Lewiston Area-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-
Northeast Blue Mountains-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Washington Palouse-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Spokane Area-
556 AM PDT Mon Jul 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Idaho...
North Central Idaho...East Central Washington...Northeast
Washington and Southeast Washington.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Please refer to our Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=otx for the latest information
on potential weather hazards in the region.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Spokane WA
621 AM PDT Mon Jul 4 2022

WAZ038-041345-
Okanogan Highlands WA-
621 AM PDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Ferry
County through 645 AM PDT...

At 621 AM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southeast of Nespelem Community, or 46 miles southeast of Omak,
moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Keller.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4798 11861 4797 11874 4829 11882 4828 11849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1321Z 176DEG 25KT 4805 11868

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JCLEV