Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Spokane, WA

397 
WWUS56 KOTX 070128
SVSOTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Spokane WA
628 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

IDC061-069-070215-
/O.CON.KOTX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220707T0215Z/
Nez Perce ID-Lewis ID-
628 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM PDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEZ PERCE AND SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTIES...

At 627 PM PDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles southwest
of Winchester, or 22 miles south of Lapwai, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4591 11686 4602 11692 4626 11663 4616 11647
      4612 11648 4612 11651 4605 11652 4602 11657
      4604 11664 4600 11665 4600 11669 4596 11675
      4592 11675 4588 11682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 225DEG 28KT 4609 11672 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

RP

094 
WWUS56 KOTX 070145
SVSOTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Spokane WA
645 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

IDC069-070155-
/O.CAN.KOTX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220707T0215Z/
Nez Perce ID-
645 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEZ PERCE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4604 11671 4620 11670 4626 11663 4616 11647
      4612 11648 4612 11651 4605 11652 4602 11657
      4604 11664 4600 11665 4600 11669
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 232DEG 23KT 4611 11652 

$$

IDC061-070215-
/O.CON.KOTX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220707T0215Z/
Lewis ID-
645 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM PDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTY...

At 645 PM PDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Craigmont, or 23 miles northwest of Grangeville, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4604 11671 4620 11670 4626 11663 4616 11647
      4612 11648 4612 11651 4605 11652 4602 11657
      4604 11664 4600 11665 4600 11669
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 232DEG 23KT 4611 11652 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

RP

056 
WWUS56 KOTX 070204
SVSOTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Spokane WA
704 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

IDC061-070212-
/O.CAN.KOTX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220707T0215Z/
Lewis ID-
704 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled, however a severe 
thunderstorm warning remains in effect for Northeastern Lewis 
County. 

LAT...LON 4604 11671 4620 11670 4626 11663 4616 11647
      4612 11648 4612 11651 4605 11652 4602 11657
      4604 11664 4600 11665 4600 11669
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 225DEG 28KT 4621 11638 

$$

RP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
407 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
There will be widely scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight
and Thursday. Friday will trend drier with isolated showers mainly
over the mountains of north Idaho. The weekend will be seasonably
warm and dry. Next week will feel like summer. Tuesday and
Wednesday will likely be the hottest days with widespread 90s and
some of our typical hot spots like Lewiston and Moses Lake
flirting with 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This evening: Deep, moist southerly flow persist through the
night and into Thursday as a broad upper low churns well off the
Washington coast. For the remainder of the afternoon into the
evening, we will be watching showers travel up the spine of the
Cascades. So far this afternoon, an abundance of cloud cover has
limited destabilization over the north Cascades, but the
potential for a few thunderstorms remains over the high terrain
near Lake Chelan and the upper Methow Valley. We will also be
monitoring the likely development of showers and thunderstorms
over the high terrain of northeast Oregon as it may track into
portions of far southeast Washington as well as the L-C Valley.
The good news is that despite our moisture rich environment
(precipitable water values around an inch), there is enough mid-
level south/southwesterly flow to keep showers and thunderstorms
moving. Unlike our slow moving storms over the holiday weekend,
these should have faster speeds which is an important factor in
decreasing flash flood potential.

Overnight into Thursday morning: Similar to last night, our region
will have a deep moist profile and weak conditionally instability
in the mid-levels. On afternoon water vapor imagery, there is a
distinct shortwave off the Oregon coast that is progged to pivot
into our region late tonight into the early morning hours. While
some high resolution models generate clusters of showers across
central and eastern Washington overnight, others do not. The
morning operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF support the idea
that clusters of showers will develop late tonight near Tri Cities
after midnight and track northeast during the morning. Since our
air mass is similar to last night, lightning has been included in
the forecast across the Columbia Basin into northeast and north
central Washington. This is a low confidence forecast since
elevated moisture and instability tend to be razor thin and not
initialized particularly well by the models.

Thursday afternoon and evening: Increasing west or southwest
surface winds will push some drier air through the Cascade gaps
during the day Thursday. While there may be a few showers over the
Cascades Thursday, they should be light in a low instability
environment as precipitable water values (PWATs) trend down.
Overall, PWATs will begin trending down region-wide Thursday
afternoon and evening, but there will be enough residual surface
based instability to retain the mention a 20 to 40 percent chance
of showers and thunderstorm over the mountainous terrain of
northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.

Friday: Our drying trend will continue Friday as onshore flow
persists and our fetch of subtropical moisture is pushed eastward.
Look for seasonably warm temperatures with highs in the 80s. With
dewpoints in the 40s and low 50s, the air will feel less "humid"
than many of our recent days when mid to upper 50 dewpoints were
common in our region. /GKoch

Saturday:
ECWMF EFI and shift of tails plots indicate no anomalous events in the
long term. A weak PV anomaly off the California/Oregon coast may
bring some shower activity to SE WA/ID. Dprog/dt for the PV
anomaly has slowed it down to the Blue Mountains by 21Z Saturday.
The steering flow is from the SW/WSW around 30 knots at 500 mb,
enhancing shower and thunderstorm chances over the interior
Cascades and the Blue Mountains where PWATs range from 0.6 to 1
inch. 700-500 mb theta-e lapse rates of -2 to -3 K/km in the early
afternoon are favorable thermodynamics for thunderstorms in the
Blue Mountains, but the near surface moisture is limited and the
synoptic forcing window with the PV anomaly remains brief and
weak. However, MUCAPE values range from 500-1500 J/kg in the Blue
Mountains. Effective bulk shear values from 30-45 knots may
support stronger cells. There may be a couple Cascade showers as
well, but mid level theta-e lapse rates are positive, so thunder
is unlikely. Saturday could be gusty in the Columbia Basin as
boundary layer heights approach 700 mb mixing down 15-20 knot
gusts. Temperatures will remain seasonal in the upper 70s to upper
80s as this perturbation comes through.

Saturday night through Wednesday:
Upper level flow shifts from WSW Saturday night to westerly as
height rises occur as an Omega blocking pattern takes shape with
an Aleutian Low, 4 corners upper level high, and an upper level
low over the Hudson Bay and northern Quebec. This pattern seems to
stick around through the late forecast period, leaving us hot and
dry in/near the ridge axis. Highs Sunday will range from the
upper 70s to upper 80s. Highs Monday will range from the mid 80s
to mid 90s. Highs Tuesday will range from the lower 90s to perhaps
low 100s in the Columbia Basin. Fuels will start to cure as
minimal precipitation is forecasted through Saturday. Min RH’s
will be around 15-20% in the Columbia Basin. GEFS Hot-dry-windy
index (HWDI) shows several spikes into the 50 and 75 percentiles,
but the fire risk will likely be minimal as fuels are just
starting to dry out. Shower chances may return Wednesday as the
Aleutian shifts southeast into NW BC, shifting the ridge axis east
into central Montana. Details in this will be ironed out as the
omega block temporarily shuts down. Temperatures could remain in
the 90s Wednesday depending on the position of the upper level low
over BC and the ridge axis just east of us. /dbutler

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Widely scattered showers with cloud bases generally
above 7000 feet are expected over the next 24 hours. We will be
watching the high terrain of northeast Oregon for the possibility
of evening thunderstorms that could track toward Lewiston and
Pullman. There is a small chance that storms at these TAF sites
could produce brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Overnight clusters
of showers with embedded thunderstorms will be possible across the
Columbia Basin. If these cells develop, they will track north-
northeast toward Moses Lake, Spokane, Coeur d'Alene, Colville, and
Sandpoint. Rain cores with high-based late night and early morning
showers tends to be spotty. Unless a core goes right over an
airport, visibility reductions below 5 miles are rare. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  80  58  82  57  82 /  20  30   0  10   0   0
Coeur d'Alene  60  81  59  82  58  80 /  10  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        57  77  57  78  55  79 /  30  10   0  10  10   0
Lewiston       64  86  63  87  63  87 /  30  10  10  10  10   0
Colville       55  79  54  83  53  82 /  10  30  10  10  10   0
Sandpoint      56  80  56  80  54  79 /  10  20  10  10  10   0
Kellogg        60  80  59  80  59  77 /  40  20  10  20  10   0
Moses Lake     60  85  57  86  55  87 /  30  30   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      60  83  58  85  57  84 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           59  84  58  86  55  85 /  10  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Spokane WA
626 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

IDZ001>003-WAZ031>038-041-043-044-047>049-071330-
Northern Panhandle-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-
Northeast Blue Mountains-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Washington Palouse-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Spokane Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Wenatchee Area-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-
Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-
Western Okanogan County-
626 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Idaho...
Central Washington...East Central Washington...North Central
Washington...Northeast Washington and Southeast Washington.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Please refer to our Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=otx for the latest information
on potential weather hazards in the region.

IDZ004-026-027-071330-
Central Panhandle Mountains-Lewiston Area-
Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-
626 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Idaho and
North Central Idaho.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may become strong
producing isolated damaging wind gusts and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms may become strong producing
isolated damaging wind gusts and hail.

Please refer to our Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=otx for the latest information
on potential weather hazards in the region.