Alert archive / New York / Storm Warnings in 2022

Storm Warning 3, NWS New York, NY

February 17, 2022

NWS New York, NY issued this storm warning at Feb 17, 2022, 3:58 AM EST. It took effect at Feb 17, 2022, 3:36 PM EST. It was in force for 18 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 17, 2022, 3:58 AM EST (08:58 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 17, 2022, 3:36 PM EST
Expired
Feb 18, 2022, 10:00 AM EST
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS New York, NY

The text

As transmitted.

825 
WHUS71 KOKX 170858
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
358 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

ANZ332-180000-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220217T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.SC.Y.0023.220217T1500Z-220217T2300Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.SR.A.0003.220217T2300Z-220218T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0003.220217T2300Z-220218T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
358 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, southwest winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 50 kt and seas 6 to 9 feet expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound east of Orient Point and the 
  Connecticut River.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM 
  EST Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM this 
  morning to 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ355-180000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220217T2300Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.GL.W.0009.220217T2300Z-220218T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0003.220217T2300Z-220218T1800Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
358 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, southwest winds 30 to 40 kt with 
  gusts up to 50 kt and seas 9 to 14 feet expected. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, south winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt and seas 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM 
  EST Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EST this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ331-340-345-180000-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0023.220217T1500Z-220217T2300Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.SR.A.0003.220217T2300Z-220218T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0003.220217T2300Z-220218T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
358 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, southwest winds 25 to 35 kt with
  gusts up to 50 kt expected. Seas 3 to 6 feet on eastern Long
  Island Sound. For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 
  to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...The south shore and eastern bays of Long Island, and 
  Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to 
  the Mouth of the Connecticut River.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM 
  EST Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM this 
  morning to 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-180000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220217T2300Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.SR.A.0003.220217T2300Z-220218T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0003.220217T2300Z-220218T1800Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
358 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, southwest winds 30 to 40 kt with 
  gusts up to 50 kt and seas 12 to 17 feet expected. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts 
  up to 30 kt and seas 6 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM 
  EST Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EST this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ335-338-180000-
/O.EXB.KOKX.SC.Y.0023.220217T1500Z-220217T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0009.220217T2300Z-220218T1800Z/
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
358 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, south winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  and seas 1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound west of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM 
  EST Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM this 
  morning to 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
3 follow-up statements
910 
WHUS71 KOKX 172036
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
336 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

ANZ335-338-181100-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-220217T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0009.220217T2036Z-220218T1800Z/
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
336 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45
  kt.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound west of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ331-332-340-345-181100-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-220217T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.SR.W.0003.220217T2036Z-220218T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
336 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50
  kt and seas 4 to 7 feet on Long Island Sound.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound east of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, Peconic and Gardiners Bays, and South Shore Bays from 
  Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-181100-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220217T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.SR.W.0003.220217T2036Z-220218T1800Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
336 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and 
  seas 13 to 18 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
072 
WHUS71 KOKX 180851
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
351 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355-182200-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.A.0005.220219T1800Z-220220T1100Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
351 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, southwest winds 30 to 40 kt with
  gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 18 feet on the ocean, and 4 to 8
  ft on eastern Long Island Sound. For the Gale Watch, northwest
  winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 6 to 9 feet
  possible on the ocean and 3 to 6 ft on eastern Long Island
  Sound.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm, Long 
  Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the 
  Mouth of the Connecticut River, Long Island Sound East of the 
  Mouth of the Connecticut River, Peconic and Gardiners Bays, 
  and South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, until 10 AM EST this morning. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Saturday afternoon through late 
  Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ335-338-182200-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-220218T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.A.0005.220219T1800Z-220220T1100Z/
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
351 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts 
  up to 45 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, 
  northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 2 
  to 4 feet possible.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound west of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 1 PM EST this afternoon. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Saturday afternoon through late 
  Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
021 
WHUS71 KOKX 181459
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
959 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355-190400-
/O.EXP.KOKX.SR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.GL.W.0009.220218T1500Z-220218T2100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.A.0005.220219T1800Z-220220T1100Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
959 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
...STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 10 to 15 feet expected. For the 
  Gale Watch, northwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt 
  and seas 6 to 9 feet possible.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm, Long 
  Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the 
  Mouth of the Connecticut River, Long Island Sound East of the 
  Mouth of the Connecticut River, Peconic and Gardiners Bays, 
  and South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 4 PM EST this afternoon. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Saturday afternoon through late 
  Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ335-338-190400-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-220218T1900Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.A.0005.220219T1800Z-220220T1100Z/
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
959 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts 
  up to 45 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, 
  northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 2 
  to 4 feet possible.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound west of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 2 PM EST this afternoon. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Saturday afternoon through late 
  Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Feb 17, 12:55 AM EST, 3 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 17, 12:55 AM EST, 3 hours 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1255 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will slowly give
way to a frontal system over the mid section of the country
today. The associated cold front will then move across from late
tonight into into Friday morning. Weak high pressure briefly
builds late Friday and Friday night. A cold front moves through
the second half of Saturday, followed by stronger high pressure
Sunday into Monday. A complex frontal system approaches Tuesday,
presenting the chance of unsettled weather through the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Winds making the difference in radiative cooling tonight despite
an abundance of clouds with a vast range of temperatures from
lower 30s in parts of the region north and west of NYC where
winds are very light to mid 40s across much of Eastern Long
Island where there is around 10-15 mph SW flow with gusts up to
20-25 mph at times.

A combination of southerly winds (10-15 mph) ahead of an
approaching frontal system and abundant clouds through the night
will lead to an unseasonably mild night with lows mainly in the
lower 40s for NYC and coastal areas of Long Island and
Southeast Connecticut (typical highs for this time of the year).
Elsewhere, lows will be mainly in the low to upper 30s. Lows
are expected to be reached in the early part of the overnight
period after which southerly flow is expected to increase
leading to nearly steady to slowly rising temperatures going
into early this morning.

The area will be strongly inverted with a deep southerly flow,
keeping gusts more occasional in frequency even with a tight
pressure gradient between the approaching frontal system and
departing offshore high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Southern branch shortwave energy will lift up across the
southern High Plains and interact with a northern branch
longwave trough moving into the upper Mississippi Valley. This
will lead to a deepening frontal wave that lifts up into the
Ohio Valley this evening, and then up into Northern New England
by Friday morning, sending a strong cold front across the area.
A deep-layered SW flow will send a moisture rich airmass up
from the Gulf Coast states (PW values 3 to 4SD above normal).
The good news here is that the upper trough is positively-tilted
and progressive. Deep-layered lift will produce moderate to
locally heavy rainfall (embedded convection with marginal
instability) which will develop from west to east tonight.
Rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 1/2 to 3/4" with
localized higher amounts above an inch. Any flooding at this
time looks to be of the minor nuisance variety.

However, the main impact from this system will likely come from
strong pre-frontal winds from the S/SW. Models are in overall
good agreement with the timing of the frontal system with some
subtle differences in the magnitude of the LLJ that develops
out ahead of it. A 45-55 Kt LLJ will be across much of the
area today, but it will remain strongly inverted as 85h temps
approach or even exceed 10C late tonight. This will limit the
gust potential to around 25 kt this afternoon. The LLJ will
then max out across LI and SE CT between 70-80 kt after midnight
before passing to the east around daybreak. Even speeds of
55-65 kt will be present as far west at the Lower Hudson Valley
and NE NJ. As is often the case at this time of year and heading
into the springtime, especially due to the cool nearshore
waters, is how much of this momentum can we transfer down to the
surface. Used a blend of the NBM and its 90th percentile along
with the previous forecast to maintain continuity. Even taking
half of the max jet will produce winds around 40 kt across
eastern areas, but preference was somewhere in between the
strongly inverted NAM profiles and the better mixed GFS. One
only has to go up to 500 ft across eastern LI and SE CT to tap
into 50 kt winds. Thus, will stay with the High Wind Watch
across this area as there still remains some uncertainty.
Elsewhere, a wind advisory is a good likelihood and could be
issued early this morning.

Highs today will get well into the 50s, but remain shy of record
highs. Lows tonight will be the 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Friday as the front pushes through early, the winds will switch
around to a drier northwesterly direction. This will usher in
noticeably colder air, with temperatures gradually falling during
the day. The winds may still be rather gusty and still strong for
the first few hours in the morning until about 11 am or noon as
mixing will be maximized and 40-50 mph winds can still be brought
down to the surface just behind the cold front. The threat for the
strongest and potentially damaging winds should be gone by midday,
with gusts more likely at 30 to 35 mph, or thereabouts. Still a
windy to breezy afternoon, but the stronger winds should be done and
it will be drying out with sunshine quickly returning from west to
east during the late morning. The most noticeable change will be the
temperatures falling to more seasonable levels as a much colder air
mass arrives for Friday night and into the weekend.

The upper level trough will begin to pivot through later on
Saturday. In more recent runs of the global guidance the trough has
been progged to be deeper. Thus the cold front that swings through
should bring back a period of gusty winds as there appears to be
some colder air aloft now compared to previous guidance cycles. The
winds however will not be nearly as strong as the very beginning of
the period for Friday morning. As far as any precip with the frontal
passage on Saturday, the low levels appear very dry. Perhaps a few
snow showers inland and rain/snow showers along the coast are
possible but nothing in terms of sensible or impactful weather
is expected. The cold fropa will reinforce the seasonably cold
air for Saturday night into Sunday. Look for mainly dry
conditions with temperatures overall averaging slightly below
normal through the weekend.

Upper level ridging/height rises should start to work back in
quickly to begin next week. Another kink ridge type set up
appears to be in order as a return flow should start up quickly
for the new work week. The question for early next week pertains
to how soon any energy escapes from another trough getting
established in the Western/Southwestern states. WPC noted the
large spread in the ECMWF ensemble members with regard to the
timing of embedded energy spokes. Thus it will be quite
difficult timing disturbances on the back side of ridging in the
SW flow regime. For now introducing POPs late Monday night,
with likely POPs into the day on Tuesday. There remains lots of
uncertainty as to whether there is a break in precip Tuesday
night into Wednesday, and how long any break will be. Thus,
carried chance POPs late Tuesday night into Wednesday. With a
milder regime in place all precip is expected to be in the
liquid form.

Temperatures will average above normal, especially at night
starting Monday night. During the day time Monday through
Wednesday there may be a sharp temperature contrast when clouds
aren't prevalent as the prevailing flow looks to be southerly.
This should lead to the wind coming off a cold ocean for coastal
/ eastern sections. Thus temperatures further west and inland
could be more than a few degrees warmer compared to eastern
locations during the day time hours for late in the period.
Overall temperatures will be above normal with western locations
at a minimum getting into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will slowly give
way to a frontal system over the mid section of the country.
The associated cold front will move across the area late
tonight into Friday morning.

Mainly VFR cond expected through the day today. MVFR cigs
however may be possible into early this morning at KGON/KISP.
Rain showers with MVFR cond will begin to move in tonight, along
with slight chance of a tstm.

Winds tonight will be S-SW 10-15 kt, with ocnl G20kt into early
this AM, also some LLWS given SW winds at 2kft AGL increasing
to 40-45 kt. SW winds will then increase today to around 15 kt
with G20-25kt and LLWS continuing into early afternoon. For
late afternoon into early evening, winds at 2kft AGL decrease
for the NYC metro terminals and points north/west, but should
remain near 45 kt at KISP/KBDR/KGON.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible for wind gust timing today. SW winds 40kt at 2kft
AGL from 18Z-24Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.Late tonight...Rain with MVFR/IFR cond and slight chance of a
tstm. Occasional LIFR possible. SSW-S winds G40-45kt coastal
terminals, G35-40kt inland. Peak winds 50-55kt possible,
especially KISP/KGON. LLWS with SW winds 65-75 kt at 2 kft AGL
E of the NYC metros and 50-60 kt for the NYC metros north/west.

.Friday...Conds improving to VFR by late morning/early
afternoon. W-SW winds G30-40kt in the morning, highest E of the
NYC metros, shifting NW G25-30kt by late morning, then G20kt late
afternoon into early evening.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR. SW-W winds G25-30kt.

.Sunday...VFR. SW winds G15-20 kt in the afternoon.

.Monday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conds expected on the ocean overnight as well as on far ern
Long Island Sound. Then today all waters except the western
Sound and NY Harbor should experience SCA conds.

A strong frontal system approaching from the west and departing
high pressure will bring a period of strong winds to the waters
with gales likely all waters tonight, possibly even storm force
across the eastern waters. Gale warnings are in effect for the
western half of the marine area with a storm watch to the east.
There is still enough uncertainty at this time to not upgrade to
a storm warning.

High ocean seas of 12-16 ft likely to build tonight into Fri
morning.

Decreasing northwesterly flow is expected late Friday morning and
into the afternoon as any storm and gale conditions will be
subsiding to small craft. Seas will remain quite elevated into
Friday evening out on the ocean, especially the eastern ocean. Seas
will then continue to subside Friday night into early Saturday with
only marginal small craft conditions remaining on the ocean due to 5
ft seas. Then seas and a SW flow will begin to pick up again quickly
on Saturday as another cold front, this time from the northwest
approaches. Thus, small craft conditions will become increasingly
likely through the day on Saturday, with gale conditions now looking
likely at least on the ocean waters, and potentially the eastern
most non-ocean waters. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning
conditions will improve as high pressure begins to build into the
waters. Sub SCA conditions are expected on Sunday, but a S-SW flow
will start to increase out on the ocean late in the day and into the
Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall of 1/2" to 1" is likely, locally 1" to 1 1/4" possible
late today into early Friday. Most of this falling in less than
6 hr period. Localized minor urban and poor drainage flooding
is possible.

If higher end rainfall amounts are realized, some minor flooding
of quick reacting small streams in the Hackensack/Passaic river
basins of NE NJ is possible based on 3-6hr FFG around 1 1/2".
In addition, will have to monitor for localized ice jam flooding
potential across our far interior river/streams with mild temps
and rainfall allowing for ice breakup and increased stream flow.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     CTZ008-011-012.
NY...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     NYZ078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ335-338-355.
     Storm Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for
     ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ332-
     350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ331-340-345.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BG/JM
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 16, 4:11 PM EST, 11 hours 47 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
411 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

CTZ005>007-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-172115-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
411 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Confidence is increasing in the potential of wind gusts of 45 to 55
mph Thursday night into Friday morning as a strong frontal system
tracks through the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ008-011-012-NYZ078>081-172115-
Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
411 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-340-345-172115-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
411 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ335-338-172115-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
411 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ355-172115-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
411 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Gale conditions are also possible again Saturday into Saturday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ350-353-172115-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
411 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Watch.

Gale conditions are also possible again Saturday into Saturday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 16, 11:59 PM EST, 3 hours 59 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1159 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

NYZ067-171200-
Orange-
1159 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

Patchy black ice development overnight with temperatures hovering
in the upper 20s to around freezing, allowing for freezing of
condensation on surfaces. This will be most prevalent in valley
locations, sheltered from the winds.

Walkways and any untreated surfaces in these areas may be
slippery. If driving overnight, please use extreme caution,
especially on bridges, overpasses, and around curves. Allow plenty
of stopping distance and avoid braking suddenly.

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 17, 3:59 AM ESTHigh Wind WarningOKXNassau, Suffolk30 hr
Feb 17, 3:59 AM ESTWind AdvisoryOKXBronx, Kings, New York, Orange, Putnam, Queens and 3 more30 hr

Nearby

Storm Warnings in New York, 2022Every storm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.