Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1046 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches today and moves through the area
tonight, stalling south of the area on Tuesday. Weak high
pressure is then expected to build in on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A frontal system approaches Wednesday night and moves across
Thursday into Friday. High pressure then returns, building in
from the west heading into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Montioring an area of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms,
across Upstate NY and PA as it tracks north and east in
association with a pre-frontal trough. Cloud cover is increasing
and skies will go overcast as it nears, and this throws some
uncertainty into exactly when and where any potential severe
threat materializes this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicates
rebounding instability behind this rain, and CAMs hint at new
convection firing and tracking east later today. No significant
changes for now, though adjusted temps and PoPs in the near
term to account for the incoming rain.

Another hot day (albeit less so than yesterday) is expected for
the region with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
A persistent southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front
will allow for continued moisture advection into the area
through the day. This will allow for dew points to remain in the
low 70s through much of the day. Warm temperatures combined
with these high dew points will allow for heat index values to
rise into the middle 90s for the NYC metro and surrounding
areas. As a result,the heat advisories have been expanded to
include NYC, eastern Passaic, Bergen, southern Westchester,
Nassau, and northwestern Suffolk counties. There does remain
some uncertainty in how quickly the cloud cover from approaching
convection to the west can obscure skies. If it were to move in
faster, high temperatures may not rise as quickly or as high so
heat index values may fall below 95.

The approach of a cold front to the west will bring the potential
for strong to severe scattered thunderstorms today. A warm and moist
boundary layer will support strong instability with 1500 - 3000 J/kg
of CAPE by the late morning and into the early afternoon. With 0-6
km shear of 30-40 kt, thunderstorms will have ample opportunity to
remain organized and become strong to severe. There remains ample
surface and upper level forcing with an upper level jet streak
allowing for divergence aloft, an approaching vorticity maximum in
the mid-levels, and a surface cold front allowing for lift
through the entire atmosphere. Thunderstorms likely become more
widespread and more intense into the afternoon as instability
is maximized. The primary threat for thunderstorms is damaging
wind gusts, though hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.

Additionally, PWAT values on the order of 2 - 2.3 inches will allow
for any thunderstorm that develops to produce heavy rainfall with
rates up to or exceeding 1" per hour. This may result in
localized flash flooding, especially in more urban and
vulnerable areas. Poor drainage flooding can be expected in any
thunderstorm. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall today.

Thunderstorms continue into the evening, gradually making their
way eastward through Long Island and Connecticut. The front
moves through and allows dew points and temperatures to drop a
bit. Lows will be in the middle 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure then attempts to move into the area on
Tuesday with conditions expected to remains mostly dry. High
temperatures will be more seasonable with temperatures in the
low to middle 80s.

The front slows its forward progression south of the area
possibly allowing for a weak wave of low pressure to develop
along it Tuesday night. It is still uncertain on if this
develops and how close to the area it may be, but allowed for at
least slight chance of showers Tuesday night and into
Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday are expected to increase a bit
with temperatures in the middle 80s to possibly low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Large upper level low opening up to a trough takes place in the long
term over the Northeast. At the surface, weak high pressure during
midweek gives to an approaching frontal system Thursday into Friday.
High pressure then returns, building in from the west for the
weekend.

Chances for rain showers from time to time mid to late week. Mainly
dry conditions expected for the weekend. Chances for thunderstorms
Thursday into Thursday evening with daytime increase in surface
instability.

Temperatures forecast to stay above normal for highs. Upper 80s to
lower 90s generally expected for forecast highs with hottest day
forecast to be Thursday, when highs get more into the 90s with low
to mid 90s across Northeast NJ. Thursday is also a day where it is
forecast to be humid enough for forecast heat indices to reach low
to upper 90s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front approaches today and moves across tonight. The
front stalls south of the region Tuesday.

Mainly VFR outside of SHRA/TSRA today.

TSRA activity weakening into northern NJ/SW NY this hour as it
approaches KSWF/KHPN. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue to develop and move east, mainly this afternoon into
early evening with a timeframe of 18Z-00Z. The showers and
thunderstorms eventually taper off late tonight from NW to SE.

Winds will be generally 10-15 kts out of the SW with gusts 20-25
kt developing and continuing into this evening. Winds decrease
to 10 kt and back to W-NW late tonight into early Tuesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely to refine the timing of thunderstorms
between 18Z and 00Z. Timing and coverage of
showers/thunderstorms uncertain and may be off by +/- 1 or 2
hours.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Tuesday...VFR. Slight chance of showers early in the morning,
mainly east of the New York City terminals.
.Wednesday...VFR in the morning, then a chance of showers in
the afternoon and at night with MVFR possible.
.Thursday...Chance of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms.
.Friday...VFR. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA has been extended into Tuesday morning for the western ocean
and Tuesday evening for the two eastern ocean zones given
remnant swells for the ocean waters this afternoon through Tuesday.
Non-ocean waters stay below SCA criteria, though there may be an
occasional gust to 25 kt on the Great South Bay today.

SCA conditions will likely linger on the ocean waters Tuesday,
mainly east of Fire Island Inlet. For Wednesday night through Friday
night, conditions on the waters remain below SCA thresholds
without any tight pressure gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Thunderstorm activity with associated heavy rainfall could lead to
flooding in urban and poor drainage areas as well as localized flash
flooding this afternoon. With some potential for hydrologic
impacts from heavy rain, WPC has placed our entire area in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

No significant widespread heavy rain expected Wed night through the
upcoming weekend at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk is today for all Atlantic
facing beaches. The high risk of rip currents is expected to
extend into Tuesday as well due to lingering 5ft@8 sec
southerly swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ071>075-078-
     176>179.
     High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     104>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
357 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-079-260800-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Northeast Suffolk-
357 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a threat for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and
flash flooding this afternoon into evening. Main threat with severe
thunderstorms would be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>074-078-176-177-260800-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
357 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a threat for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and
flash flooding this afternoon into evening. Main threat with severe
thunderstorms would be damaging wind gusts.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ075-178-179-260800-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
357 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a threat for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and
flash flooding this afternoon into evening. Main threat with severe
thunderstorms would be damaging wind gusts.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a threat for isolated to scattered instances of severe
thunderstorms and flash flooding on Monday afternoon into evening.
Main threat with severe thunderstorms would be damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-081-260800-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
357 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a threat for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and
flash flooding this afternoon into evening. Main threat with severe
thunderstorms would be damaging wind gusts.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a threat for isolated to scattered instances of severe
thunderstorms and flash flooding on Monday afternoon into evening.
Main threat with severe thunderstorms would be damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-260800-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
357 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a threat for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and
flash flooding this afternoon into evening. Main threat with severe
thunderstorms would be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1216 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

NJZ004-006-104>107-NYZ072-251700-
Hudson NJ-Eastern Essex NJ-Western Union NJ-Western Essex NJ-
Eastern Bergen NJ-Eastern Passaic NJ-New York (Manhattan) NY-
1216 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Hudson, eastern
Passaic, northwestern Union, southeastern Bergen, Essex and New York
(Manhattan) Counties through 100 PM EDT...

At 1215 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Morristown, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Passaic, Hoboken, Bloomfield,
Hackensack, Orange, Bergenfield, Summit, Lyndhurst, Millburn,
Rutherford, Secaucus and Harrison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4067 7443 4076 7436 4076 7438 4079 7437
      4082 7433 4086 7432 4087 7434 4091 7433
      4091 7429 4089 7428 4091 7427 4093 7429
      4093 7414 4089 7412 4093 7407 4094 7396
      4071 7398 4069 7421 4071 7424 4068 7428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 261DEG 34KT 4077 7447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>