Alert archive / Connecticut / High Wind Warnings in 2022

High Wind Warning 1, NWS New York, NY

January 16, 2022Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut; Suffolk County, New York

NWS New York, NY issued this high wind warning at Jan 16, 2022, 3:38 AM EST for Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut; Suffolk County, New York. It took effect at Jan 17, 2022, 12:00 AM EST. It was in force for 9 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 16, 2022, 3:38 AM EST (08:38 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 17, 2022, 12:00 AM EST
Expired
Jan 17, 2022, 9:25 AM EST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS New York, NY

Counties Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Suffolk County, NY

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 17, 4:59 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 603 W Hither Hills State, NYMESONET STATION XNAP NAPEAGUE. 52 KT GUST.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2022-01-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2022-01-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -177 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1557 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
75 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-177 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

905 
WWUS71 KOKX 160838
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
338 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

CTZ012-NYZ079-081-162200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0001.220117T0500Z-220117T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0001.220117T0500Z-220117T1500Z/
Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
338 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern New London County. In New 
  York, Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NYZ071>075-176>179-162200-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.220117T0500Z-220117T1300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
338 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern Fairfield County. In New 
  York, Southern Nassau, Southern Westchester, Richmond (Staten 
  Island), Bronx, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Southern 
  Queens, New York (Manhattan) and Kings (Brooklyn) Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ008-010-011-NYZ078-080-162200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.220117T0500Z-220117T1500Z/
Northern New London-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
338 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern New London, Southern 
  Middlesex and Southern New Haven Counties. In New York, 
  Northwest Suffolk and Southwest Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
357 
WWUS71 KOKX 162128
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
428 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

CTZ012-NYZ079-081-171100-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0001.220117T0500Z-220117T1500Z/
Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
428 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts 60 to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern New London County. In New 
  York, Southeast Suffolk and Northeast Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CTZ008-010-011-NYZ078-080-171100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.220117T0500Z-220117T1500Z/
Northern New London-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
428 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 45 to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern New London, Southern 
  Middlesex and Southern New Haven Counties. In New York, 
  Northwest Suffolk and Southwest Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NYZ071>075-176>179-171100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.220117T0500Z-220117T1300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
428 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 45 to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern Fairfield County. In New 
  York, Southern Nassau, Southern Westchester, Richmond (Staten 
  Island), Bronx, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Southern 
  Queens, New York (Manhattan) and Kings (Brooklyn) Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
279 
WWUS71 KOKX 170831
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

CTZ012-NYZ079-081-171500-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220117T1500Z/
Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
331 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern New London County. In New 
  York, Southeast Suffolk and Northeast Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CTZ008-010-011-NYZ078-080-171500-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220117T1500Z/
Northern New London-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
331 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern New London, Southern 
  Middlesex and Southern New Haven Counties. In New York, 
  Northwest Suffolk and Southwest Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NYZ071>075-176>179-171300-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220117T1300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
331 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern Fairfield County. In New 
  York, Southern Nassau, Southern Westchester, Richmond (Staten 
  Island), Bronx, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Southern 
  Queens, New York (Manhattan) and Kings (Brooklyn) Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
673 
WWUS71 KOKX 171207
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
707 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

NYZ079-081-171315-
/O.CAN.KOKX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220117T1500Z/
Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
707 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The damaging winds have moved northeast of the region. Southwest 
winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected to 
redevelop this morning and continue into tonight.

$$

CTZ009-NYZ071>075-176>179-171315-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220117T1300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
707 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The strong winds have moved northeast of the region. Southwest 
winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected to 
redevelop this morning and continue into tonight.

$$

NYZ078-080-171315-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220117T1500Z/
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
707 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The strong winds have moved northeast of the region. Southwest 
winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected to 
redevelop this morning and continue into tonight.


$$

CTZ012-171500-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220117T1500Z/
Southern New London-
707 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Southern New London County.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CTZ008-010-011-171500-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220117T1500Z/
Northern New London-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
707 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Northern New London, Southern New Haven and Southern 
  Middlesex Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
942 
WWUS71 KOKX 171425
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
925 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

CTZ012-171530-
/O.CAN.KOKX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220117T1500Z/
Southern New London-
925 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The threat of damaging winds has ended. 

$$

CTZ008-010-011-171530-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220117T1500Z/
Northern New London-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
925 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The threat of wind gusts over 45 mph has ended. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Jan 16, 1:07 AM EST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 16, 1:07 AM EST, 2 hours 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
107 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure settles just north of the area tonight before
moving offshore on Sunday. Meanwhile, a developing low pressure
system over the southeast will track north and intensify as it
passes just west of the area Sunday night into Monday. The
storm system lifts into southeast Canada Monday night as high
pressure builds into the area through Tuesday. A quick moving
frontal system passes Wednesday into Wednesday night followed by
high pressure late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast remains on track this evening with only minor
adjustments made to hourly temperatures and dewpoints. Arctic
high pressure will continue to build into the region this
evening, settling just north of the area overnight. While this
will allow winds to diminish, even colder air will move into the
region. Overnight lows will fall into the teens in New York
City, and into the single digits most elsewhere. There is a good
chance that temperatures dip below zero across typically colder
locations in the Lower Hudson Valley, Long Island Pine Barrens,
and interior southern Connecticut. With winds remaining less
than 10 mph, wind chill values will remain closer to the actual
air temperatures tonight, generally ranging from -5 to +5 late
tonight into early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The daytime hours on Sunday will remain dry, although clouds
will increase as high pressure moves offshore and low pressure
over the southeastern U.S. tracks northward towards the area. As
it does so, winds will shift to the east, ushering in
noticeably warmer air by afternoon, especially across Long
Island, coastal Connecticut, and the New York City metro. As the
low tracks northward, precipitation is expected to overspread
the area towards evening, continuing through Sunday night as the
low passes to the west before ending during the day on Monday
as a dry slot develops over the region.

By the time precipitation begins Sunday evening, temperatures
across Long Island, New York City, and much of coastal
Connecticut are expected to be in the mid 30s. While
precipitation may briefly start as snow in these locations, with
the entire column warming rapidly any snow should quickly
transition to rain, with little to no accumulation expected.
Slightly farther inland a coating to perhaps 2" of snow is
possible before temperatures warm and precipitation transitions
to plain rain. The best chances for more prolonged snowfall
continue to be well inland across Orange, Putnam, and Western
Passaic counties where 2-5 inches of snow could fall, highest
north and west, before transitioning. In addition to the snow,
the NAM continues to depict a pronounced warm nose for several
hours overnight, so a period of freezing rain is also possible
for these locations prior to a transition to plain rain towards
daybreak Monday. With this in mind, a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for these locations. Overall liquid equivalent
precipitation amounts will range from 1-2", with rain possibly
becoming heavy at times overnight Sunday into early Monday
morning, especially near the coast.

Winds will also be a concern with this system, with a 60-80 kt
low level jet developing and crossing the area between midnight
and 10am. There are still some questions about how much of
these winds are able to mix down to the surface, and overall the
period of the highest gusts look brief, but wind gusts of 55-60
mph are possible especially across eastern Long Island and far
southeastern Connecticut. With this in mind, a High Wind Watch
has been issued for eastern Suffolk County in New York and
southern New London County in Connecticut. A Wind Advisory has
been issued for the rest of Long Island, NYC, southern
Westchester, and the Connecticut coast, where winds are expected
to gust to 45-50 mph for a period late Sunday night into Monday
morning. On Monday, winds will quickly shift to the southwest
during the morning as the low pulls off to the northeast,
remaining gusty through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No major changes to the forecast Monday night through the rest
of the week.

The storm system lifts up into southeast Canada Monday night
with a strong pressure gradient left in its wake. A gusty NW
flow will result in strong CAA Monday night. Temperatures will
fall back into and through the 20s in all likelihood, with wind
chills down mostly in the teens into Tuesday morning. The
pressure gradient relaxes on Tuesday as high pressure settles
nearby, resulting in a good amount of sunshine and slightly
below normal temperatures through Tuesday night.

A return flow gets established on Wednesday with the high
pushing offshore. A warm front extending down into the region
from a clipper system pushing through the Great Lakes will bring
increasing clouds. Temperatures will turn a bit milder and
should be a few degrees above normal. The clipper low then moves
to the north late Wednesday and Wednesday night, dragging its
frontal system across the region. This should be all primarily
northern branch energy with little moisture to work with.
Perhaps there will be a few rain and snow showers late Wednesday
and Wednesday night, but the frontal system should come through
without any meaningful precipitation. By Thursday, a large 1040
mb high will move into the the nation's mid section and will
build east through Friday. This will provide a return to much
colder conditions, with noticeably colder air moving in for
Thursday night into Friday. At the present time, it does not
appear to be as cold as recent cold waves. Temperatures should
however run about 10 degrees or so below normal by Thursday
night and Friday. Highs on Friday may not get out of the 20s
region wide.

Model spread and uncertainty is high to start next weekend. The
high may remain over the area with shortwave energy developing
low pressure off the Carolinas. Used the NBM for Saturday given
the time range and plenty of time to monitor deterministic and
ensemble trends.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***HIGH IMPACT STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING***

VFR through the first half of Sunday as high pressure gradually
builds over the area tonight. High pressure will slide east on
Sunday as low pressure approaches from the south.

MVFR cigs move into the region around 20z Sunday as low pressure
starts to approach. Flight categories lower even further by, or just
after 00z Monday as precipitation enters the region. In addition to
the lowered flight categories, expect an increasing easterly flow
and low level wind shear as a strong low level jet moves over the
region.

For the NYC metros/coast: Snow quickly changing over to rain
in the evening. E winds 15-20G25kt in the evening, increasing after
midnight to 20-30G40-45kt, with LLWS.

At KHPN: Snow changing to rain after midnight, E winds increasing to
20G40kt late, with LLWS.

At KSWF: Snow mixing with sleet/freezing rain after midnight and
changing to rain late. E winds increasing to 15G30kt late, with LLWS
possible.

Runway snow accumulations: none KISP/KJFK/KLGA, little to none
KGON/KBDR, up to an inch KEWR/KTEB/KHPN, 3-4 inches KSWF.

N winds will continue to gradually diminish this evening. Winds veer
to the NE late tonight into Sunday morning. Winds then become E-SE
and increase to around 10 kt along the coast by afternoon. E-SE
winds increase after 00z 13-20kt with gusts 20-30kt. Gusts increase
even further after 05z Monday with gusts around 40kt for the NYC
terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty to exact wind direction Sunday afternoon/evening.
Winds may be more SE than forecast. Timing of precipitation changes
may be off by an hour or two.

 ...OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday...Rain with MVFR to IFR cond, possibly mixing with or
changing back to snow in the afternoon before ending. Winds at the
NYC metros: SE winds 15-20G30kt, becoming SW G25kt by afternoon.
Winds at KISP/KBDR/KGON: E 20-25G40-45kt early, becoming SW 15G25-
30kt by afternoon. LLWS still likely at KGON early. Winds at
KHPN/KSWF: E 15G25-35kt, becoming SW 10G20kt by afternoon.

.Monday night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. W-NW winds 15G25kt.
.Tuesday night...VFR. NW winds G20-25kt in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. SW winds G15-20kt.
.Wednesday night...Chance of snow showers with MVFR or lower
cond, mainly KSWF/KGON.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
While winds will continue to diminish this evening as high
pressure builds into the region, a Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect on the ocean waters through the overnight as seas will
remain elevated.

With high pressure centered north of the waters Sunday morning,
sub- SCA conditions are expected during the day. This will be
shortlived, however, as both winds and seas rapidly increase
Sunday evening ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. As
this low passes west of the waters Sunday night into Monday
morning, expect winds to increase to gale force on all waters,
with gusts to storm force possible on the ocean waters east of
Moriches Inlet and on the Long Island Sound east of the mouth of
the Connecticut River. A Storm Watch is now in effect for these
zones for Sunday night into Monday morning, with a Gale Warning
in effect elsewhere.

Gales may continue on the ocean Monday night with SCA
elsewhere. SCA conditions should then continue into Tuesday
before winds diminish late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Ocean
seas will remain elevated Monday night into Tuesday and subside
Tuesday night. After sub SCA conditions early Wednesday morning,
look for small craft conditions to return out on the ocean and
perhaps the eastern LI sound during the afternoon on a SW flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1-2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation is expected
Sunday night through Monday. Much of this precipitation is
expected to fall as rain along the coast. Rain could be heavy at
times Sunday night into early Monday morning, which could
result in minor nuisance flooding. Farther north, at least some
of the precipitation is expected to fall as a wintry mix and/or
snow.

The Wallkill River at Gardiner stage may be impacted by ice.

No hydrologic impacts anticipated Monday night through Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Potential for widespread moderate to possibly locally major
coastal flooding with the Monday morning high tide...

With an upcoming storm system moving up from the south Sunday
night into Monday and with the approach of a full moon, there
will be increasing potential for coastal flooding during and
around times of high tide going into Monday morning. The Monday
daytime coastal flooding looks to be quite widespread with the
possibility of moderate to locally major coastal flooding. At
this time, looks like the highest of E-SE winds are late Sunday
night with winds becoming more southerly Monday morning and
decreasing in speed. This will lead to higher surge farther east
where winds will be higher and have more easterly component for
a longer time leading up to the time of high tide.

Winds substantially increase out of the E-SE Sunday night into
early Monday adding to the surge component, effectively piling
more water along the coastlines. Ekman transport will also
result in higher water levels along coastline. Forecast surge of
2 to 4 feet early Monday will allow for this widespread coastal
flooding. A coastal flood watch remains in effect for all
coastal zones. Latest guidance indicates that perhaps the CT
side of the Long Island Sound shore has a chance of reaching
major coastal flood benchmarks, and perhaps a few locations
along the South Shore Bays as well as along Peconic Bay.

Overall, after assessing the Saturday daytime model surge
guidance, looks like the worst of the coastal flooding will be
along the Long Island Sound shorelines on the CT side, South
Shore Bays and along the ocean shorelines as well. Water levels
forecast are trending lower for some locations across lower NY
Harbor and the Battery, putting those locations more in the
minor coastal flood category as opposed to the moderate coastal
flood category. However, subtle changes like trends higher with
wind speeds, more easterly wind direction as well as closer to
the time of high tide Monday would result in model trends
increasing with surge.

New surge forecast taken from an average of ETSS, ESTOFS, and
near the 75th percentile of NY HOPS surge ensemble available
from Stevens Institute, our previous surge forecast along with
some further adjustments upward. Decided to use total ESTOFS for
some Eastern Long Island locations which indicated higher
surge. The ETSS guidance has trended downward significantly from
their forecasts that were issued yesterday especially for more
western shorelines including locations along NY Harbor. Not as
much change for ESTOFS and NY HOPS surge ensemble between
yesterday and today. Also, some of the guidance indicates two
peaks in total water level Monday, with the greater wind forcing
and water piling making for a higher water level than that
experienced during the high tide for that particular location.
Due to uncertainty with some significant changes in model
forecasts as well as timing, keeping coastal flood watch but did
start it slightly earlier. Start time is late Sunday night
(08-09Z Monday) and continues until 15Z Monday for Manhattan
and Lower NY Harbor shorelines and until 18Z Monday for the rest
of the coastal zones.

Also, another coastal hazard will be the strong winds, high
surf that would result erosion along the ocean beaches. Forecast
ocean seas get to 10 to 15 ft late Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KOKX radar remains down until further notice. Technicians
are currently troubleshooting the issue.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for
     CTZ012.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for
     CTZ008>011.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
     for CTZ009>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
     for NYZ079>081-179.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for
     NYZ079-081.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Monday for NYZ067-068.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning
     for NYZ072-074-075-178.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for
     NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
     for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Monday for NJZ002.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning
     for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ331-335-338-340-345.
     Storm Watch from this evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ332-350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FEB/JE/DS
NEAR TERM...FEB/BC/DS
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...JE/DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...FEB/JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...FEB/JE/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 15, 4:24 PM EST, 11 hours 14 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

NJZ006-106-108-162130-
Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Watch.

See special weather statement about subzero wind chills Saturday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ009>011-NYZ071-073-078-080-176-177-179-162130-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern Westchester-Bronx-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Coastal Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ072-162130-
New York (Manhattan)-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Coastal Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ074-075-178-162130-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Coastal Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ012-NYZ079-081-162130-
Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.
   Coastal Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>007-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ069-070-162130-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Western Union-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NJZ002-NYZ067-068-162130-
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ008-162130-
Northern New London-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ353-355-162130-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ350-162130-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-335-340-345-162130-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ332-162130-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ338-162130-
New York Harbor-
424 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 16, 4:14 AM ESTCoastal Flood WarningOKXGreater Bridgeport Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region31 hr
Jan 16, 3:52 AM ESTStorm WarningOKX30 hr
Jan 16, 4:14 AM ESTCoastal Flood AdvisoryOKXKings, New York, Richmond30 hr

Nearby

High Wind Warnings in Connecticut, 2022High Wind Warnings in New York, 2022Every high wind warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.