Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
225 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday Night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Active and unsettled weather pattern ahead for this week. Heat
returns for next week.

Convection is firing up across the south this afternoon. The
scattered activity should continue to expand northward with time as
convective temps are reached. Lots of instability in place but
overall organization and wind energy levels are on the low side.
Still looking at the potential for some strong to severe
thunderstorms. But they will primarily be pulse driven. There is
some partial overnight upper divergence so look for some
lingering general thunderstorms late tonight.

On Wednesday, the active pattern will ramp up a bit. A potent
shortwave will offer a boost to the convective organization
potential. Instabilities will then work with increasing 850 mb wind
energy to set the stage for some severe weather. We are outlooked
with a slight risk across the entire area. Helicity values do not
really jump off the screen at me. Furthermore, 700-500 mb lapse
rates are not overly impressive. Thus, looks like a tstm wind damage
threat, primarily. As for the flooding potential, given the copious
rainfall amounts that have fallen east of i-65 will need to watch
for some minor flooding potential. PWATs are still rather high
within this soupy airmass. The one saving grace may be the frontal
boundary will not phase favorably with the strong upper impulse. At
any rate, Wednesday's severe weather timing looks like from 10 am
until 6 pm. best chance for severe appears to be south of I-40.
Moving on, we will get a brief break on Thursday as some drier air
moves in behind the fropa.

For the near term temps, its looking warm and humid. however, lower
humidity levels can be expected on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

The airmass will quickly reload with another chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and night. The trajectory of
this potential MCS is a bit uncertain, but will need to be
watched. Behind this complex, we will finally gravitate to a
calmer but increasingly hot pattern will commence.

Look for upper ridging to move in by the middle of next week.
gfs/Euro 850 mb averages are close to 22C by next Tuesday.
Furthermore, CPC is showing above normal temps for the 6 to 14 day
period. Here comes the heat with mid 90s possible for our highs.
Moisture undercut potential looks weak with max MRH values of just
55 to 60 percent. Thermal separation is noted over the MO and IL
areas so not too far away. Here comes some heat!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Ongoing chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the
forecast through the next 36 hours or so. Coverage looks isolated
initially this afternoon, becoming more scattered this afternoon
through just before sunrise Wednesday. A short break may be
possible just before 12Z through late morning before showers and
thunderstorms become more scattered to widespread later Wednesday.
Southwesterly winds around 10 knots will be light and variable
overnight, picking up to around 10 knots again during the day
Wednesday. Cigs look to remain mostly VFR today, with MVFR/IFR
possible with showers and storms passing over terminals. A few
models have MVFR cigs moving in after 09Z, and IFR cigs at KCSV
before 12Z, but kept low VFR at KBNA/KMQY/KCKV and MVFR at KCSV
after 09Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  83  64  83 /  60  90  70   0
Clarksville    67  82  62  81 /  50  80  70   0
Crossville     66  78  62  77 /  60  80  80   0
Columbia       68  83  64  83 /  60  90  60  10
Cookeville     68  80  63  78 /  60  90  80   0
Jamestown      65  79  61  75 /  40  90  80   0
Lawrenceburg   68  82  65  82 /  60  90  60  10
Murfreesboro   69  83  65  83 /  60  90  70   0
Waverly        67  80  62  83 /  50  90  50   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Barnwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
332 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-080845-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
332 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible today through tonight.
Storms could produce damaging winds and localized flooding from
heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few severe storms may occur Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
Main concerns will be damaging winds and localized flooding from
heavy downpours.

A few severe storms with damaging winds may occur Friday afternoon
and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any severe weather
reports to the National Weather Service office in Nashville.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
401 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

TNZ024>027-057-059-062-072145-
Hickman TN-Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-
Humphreys TN-Cheatham TN-
401 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Davidson, southern Dickson, Rutherford, Williamson, south central
Cheatham, northern Humphreys and northeastern Hickman Counties
through 445 PM CDT...

At 401 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Waverly to 6 miles south of Nolensville.
Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Franklin, Dickson, Waverly, Camden, Smyrna, Brentwood,
La Vergne, Spring Hill, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, White
Bluff, Belle Meade, Kingston Springs, Thompson's Station, Pegram,
McEwen, Burns and Fairview.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 160 and 197.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 56 and 75.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 61 and 87.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 1 and 18, and between mile
markers 22 and 61.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 8792 3617 8792 3618 8793 3622 8795
      3614 8717 3594 8617 3573 8621 3574 8673
      3608 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 258DEG 13KT 3614 8784 3586 8670

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
457 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

TNZ006>008-025>027-072230-
Robertson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-Sumner TN-
Montgomery TN-
457 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Davidson,
northern Dickson, southeastern Montgomery, southwestern Sumner,
Cheatham and southwestern Robertson Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 456 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Slayden to near Joelton. Movement was
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland City, Nashville, Madison, Hendersonville, Goodlettsville,
Millersville, Greenbrier, Coopertown, Ridgetop, Old Hickory, Joelton,
Pleasant View, Vanleer, Slayden, Cheatham Dam, Bells Bend, Whites
Creek, Beaman Park and Cunningham.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 205 and 212.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 85 and 103.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 18 and 49.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 8736 3640 8653 3614 8674 3623 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 236DEG 7KT 3630 8741 3624 8689

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
458 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

TNZ027-028-030-032-062-064-065-072230-
Putnam TN-Rutherford TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-De Kalb TN-Smith TN-
White TN-
458 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Smith,
southeastern Davidson, De Kalb, north central Rutherford, Wilson,
northwestern White and southwestern Putnam Counties through 530 PM
CDT...

At 458 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rural Hill to Center Hill Lake. Movement
was east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cookeville, Lebanon, Sparta, Smithville, Carthage, La Vergne, Mount
Juliet, Algood, Watertown, Baxter, Gordonsville, Rural Hill, Belinda
City, Hickman, South Carthage, Alexandria, Doyle, Dowelltown, Liberty
and Hamptons Crossroads.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 222 and 293.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 64 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 8538 3585 8547 3596 8602 3606 8667
      3631 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 260DEG 8KT 3610 8646 3603 8572

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
505 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

TNZ028-062>065-075-077-078-080-072230-
Cannon TN-Rutherford TN-Coffee TN-Wilson TN-Bedford TN-Van Buren TN-
De Kalb TN-Warren TN-White TN-
505 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern De Kalb,
Rutherford, Van Buren, Warren, northern Coffee, south central Wilson,
northern Bedford, southwestern White and Cannon Counties through 530
PM CDT...

At 505 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Murfreesboro to Auburntown to Fall Creek
Falls. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, McMinnville, Woodbury, Spencer, Morrison, Doyle,
Auburntown, Centertown, Lascassas, Christiana, Rock Island State
Park, Beechgrove, Fosterville, Rover, Fall Creek Falls State Park,
Rockvale, Bradyville, Milton and Readyville.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 77 and 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3571 8528 3557 8542 3563 8659 3577 8665
      3599 8622 3596 8602 3585 8547 3575 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 289DEG 17KT 3573 8654 3595 8610 3566 8532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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