Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
204 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

Showers and storms continue to move east into the mid state ahead
of the upper shortwave trough that will bring additional showers
and storms through the overnight hours. CAPE values will be
highest across the western half of the area, and deep layer shear
continues to trend upward this afternoon into the evening. Strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with the main threat
being damaging wind gusts. Low level shear is strong as well, so
cant rule out tornado potential this afternoon and evening either.
Ahead of a weak cold front associated with this upper wave
tonight, another band of showers and storms will be possible. Some
instability does look to remain overnight, so strong to severe
storm potential will remain, but also added moisture with high
PWAT values around 2 inches will allow for a flooding threat as
well. CAMs are highlighting areas along and north of I-40 for
heavy rain potential, but everywhere in the mid state will need to
be weather aware this afternoon through tomorrow morning for
flooding potential with heavy rain, and strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds and maybe even a tornado or two.

Another weaker shortwave will move through during the day Tuesday,
but it looks like we will have a short break in the rain Tuesday
morning. Diurnal heating as well as the approaching wave will
increase precip chances during the afternoon and into the evening.
Strong to severe storms may be possible if instability can
increase during the afternoon hours, but that will depend on how
much coverage and how long the rain lasts during the morning hours
after sunrise Tuesday morning. Another shortwave will be right on
the heels of the earlier Tuesday shortwave trough, so rain chances
look to continue Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

Wednesday looks to start with ongoing showers and a few
thunderstorms as the shortwave approaches and the Midwest broad
trough continues to develop and swing eastward. Best chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday still looks to be during
the afternoon to early evening, yet again with some instability
and shear in place, so more strong to severe storms will be
possible then as well. Drier conditions should move in on
Thursday, maybe with isolated showers in the south and east, as
northwest flow moves in aloft. That wont last long though as a
strong shortwave moves through the upper flow and brings showers
and thunderstorms in Friday afternoon and evening, possibly
carrying into the early morning hours Saturday. Most of the
instability stays to our south, but if that CAPE creeps northward
with the next model runs through the week, we could have another
strong to severe storm threat Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday may be dry for the northwest, but some lingering showers
could hold in the south and east during the day. Northwest flow
and an approaching ridge will start off Sunday and next week, with
a much welcomed drier period. The upper high in the Plains does
not move as far east as previous runs, so the hot temps stay off
to our west, but still expecting highs in the 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

VFR conditions will continue into this afternoon, but waves of
showers and thunderstorms will bring impacts, especially this
evening and overnight. A few severe storms are possible and local
very heavy rain is expected.

Southerly winds will be gusty near 20KT at times today. Stronger
gusts over 40KT are likely in and near storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  87  68  85 /  90  60  60  90
Clarksville    67  85  67  84 /  90  50  60  80
Crossville     64  79  64  79 /  80  70  60  90
Columbia       67  87  67  84 /  90  60  60  80
Cookeville     66  82  67  81 /  90  60  60  90
Jamestown      63  80  63  80 /  90  60  60  90
Lawrenceburg   67  84  67  82 /  70  50  60  80
Murfreesboro   67  87  68  85 /  90  50  60  90
Waverly        67  85  68  83 /  80  50  50  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
233 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071945-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
233 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the mid state
this afternoon through the overnight hours, especially along and west
of I-65. Main concerns will be strong to damaging winds, brief heavy
downpours that may lead to localized flooding, and some large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

During the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday, Wednesday, and
possibly Friday, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
across the mid state, with the main threats being damaging wind gusts
and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

06

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
319 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

TNZ006-007-025-026-062100-
Robertson TN-Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-
319 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Dickson,
eastern Montgomery, northern Cheatham and western Robertson Counties
through 400 PM CDT...

At 319 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Oak Grove to 9 miles northeast of McEwen.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville, Springfield, Ashland City, Coopertown, Guthrie, Pleasant
View, Charlotte, Adams, Vanleer, Cedar Hill, Slayden, Cheatham Dam
and Cunningham.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 1 and 31.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 8686 3637 8688 3639 8689 3639 8691
      3637 8691 3633 8692 3608 8754 3664 8738
      3665 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 228DEG 35KT 3667 8734 3618 8749

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Barnwell

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