Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
241 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday Night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Dreary weather pattern will continue over the next 36 hours as an
upper-level trough slowly crosses the area. With the warm front
well to our north, our area is receiving plenty of low- level
moisture coming from the Gulf. We've already received one wave of
showers, with additional showers and thunderstorms expected this
evening and again tomorrow. Still looks like a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, although
our lapse rates will be becoming less conducive by the early
evening. Still, enough instability and quick moving storms that
damaging winds could be possible.

After a brief lull overnight, expect additional showers and
thunderstorms to be around throughout most of the day tomorrow.
Strong to severe t'storms will again be possible, with ample
instability and shear increasing through the day. Lapse rates
still are not as conducive, which is a concern for the severe
weather potential to materialize. Will have a little more low-
level shear tomorrow afternoon, so while the tornado threat is
low, it is not zero. When all is said and done, do expect around 1
to 2 inches of rain over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Upper-level trough will continue to drift eastward on Friday, with
still some unsettled weather lingering on Friday. Looks like the
severe weather threat will have passed by Friday, so only showers
and a few isolated thunderstorms expected at this time. Moisture
will eventually move out overnight on Friday, leaving behind a dry
weather pattern through the weekend into at least the first half
of next week. Upper-level ridge pattern will develop over the
weekend, with increased southerly flow and WAA to the area. While
temps will be much cooler on Friday (highs in the low 70s), expect
for temps to warm up through the weekend with highs returning to
the 90s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

With a warm front to the north showers and thunderstorms will
begin to fill in and become more numerous from south to north
across middle TN. CIGs for the most part have become MVFR and will
stay that way through the end of this TAF period. As thunderstorms
become more numerous this will also lower VIS at terminals and in
the vicinity. Winds will be out of the south and gust 20-25kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  75  59  73 /  90  90  40  50
Clarksville    65  74  56  71 /  80  80  30  50
Crossville     63  71  55  68 /  80  90  90  50
Columbia       65  74  57  72 /  90  70  30  30
Cookeville     66  73  58  70 /  80  90  90  50
Jamestown      63  72  55  67 /  80  90  90  60
Lawrenceburg   65  74  57  72 /  90  80  40  30
Murfreesboro   66  75  57  73 /  80  90  50  40
Waverly        63  75  55  72 /  90  70  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Adcock
LONG TERM....Adcock
AVIATION.....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
304 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-260815-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
304 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Numerous waves of showers and thunderstorms will move across Middle
Tennessee today through tonight. A few storms could produce strong to
severe winds, especially this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional waves of showers and storms will spread across the area
on Thursday, and a few storms could produce strong to severe winds
during the day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and tomorrow. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
414 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

TNZ093-094-252200-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-
414 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Wayne and
southwestern Lawrence Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Walnut Grove to near Sheffield. Movement
was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Loretto, Collinwood, St. Joseph, Westpoint, Iron City,
Cypress Inn and Lutts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8798 3529 8798 3530 8802 3533 8802
      3541 8795 3506 8729 3500 8736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 221DEG 34KT 3509 8813 3480 8773

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
508 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

TNZ024-025-056>060-252300-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Lewis TN-Humphreys TN-Maury TN-
Perry TN-
508 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lewis, southern
Dickson, northwestern Maury, northwestern Williamson, Perry,
Humphreys and Hickman Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 508 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Parsons to near Hohenwald. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Waverly, Hohenwald, Centerville, Camden, Linden, New
Johnsonville, McEwen, Burns, Hurricane Mills, Fairview, Lobelville,
Gordonsburg, Kimmins, Bon Aqua, Primm Springs, Lyles, Bucksnort,
Mousetail Landing State Park and Pinewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3568 8802 3572 8804 3577 8798 3583 8797
      3587 8794 3592 8793 3594 8793 3595 8801
      3597 8802 3600 8800 3605 8799 3613 8792
      3616 8791 3607 8736 3594 8695 3544 8749
      3561 8803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 215DEG 35KT 3566 8803 3552 8754

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13