Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
728 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Outflow boundaries pushing to the east across western and central
portions of mid state region has spawned convection shortly after
22/00Z (7 PM CDT Tonight) moving eastward into Nashville Metro
Area and in other areas approaching the I-65 Corridor. Only storm
report received previously is a report of pea to nickel size hail
reported late this afternoon near the TN River Valley Region of
Stewart County. CAMS and other traditional short term models not
initializing on this convective scenario well, with latest
CONSShort and HIRESWFV3 model solutions closest to current
convective pattern. Latest 22/00 OHX Sounding Profile and
associated derived indicies showing good atmospheric moisture
content and instability, but very if little atmospheric shear.
Some of the stronger storms could also bring brief heavy rainfall
at times causing localized minor flooding, but no expecting a
widespread flooding threat across mid state region as of this
time. Latest satellite imagery continuing to show an 'impressive
lightning show" generally south of I-40 Corridor which will be
reaching southern portions of the I-65 Corridor here within the
next few minutes to around an half of an hour or so. Specifics
concerning above mentioned convection moving into Nashville Metro
Area are as following: An area of strong thunderstorms will push
eastward and impact entire I-65 Corridor region through at least
7:45 PM CDT tonight with gusty winds main concern. Tweaked hourly
temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids blending
them with previously forecasted associated mid to late evening
hourly gridded values. Above mentioned convection should generally
weaken as evening hours progress per wanning of diurnal heating
influences. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered TSRA will impact the terminals (except CSV) this
evening. There will be a break after 02Z, then more scattered
showers and storms will move in after 04Z. A cold front will pass
through the area around 12Z for most sites. The front will bring
NNW winds. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will follow
the front throughout Sunday with mainly MVFR cigs area wide.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
412 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
412 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon through the
early overnight hours, especially around and west of the I-65
Corridor. Some of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe,
capable of large hail and damaging winds, especially around and
north of the I-40 Corridor and around and west of the I-65 Corridor
through mid evening hours tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning,
especially west of I-65. Some of the storms may be strong to
severe, capable of large hail and damaging winds.

The chance for thunderstorms increases Tuesday afternoon
through Thursday evening. Some of these storms could be strong.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 Inch
Winds > 50 MPH(Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

JB Wright/Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
527 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ005-006-023>025-212315-
Stewart TN-Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
527 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Dickson,
Montgomery, Stewart, Houston and northern Humphreys Counties through
615 PM CDT...

At 527 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fort Campbell to near Erin to 7 miles west
of Waverly. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville, Waverly, Camden, Dover, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Big Rock,
Cumberland City, Slayden, Palmyra, Woodlawn, Houston County Airport,
Indian Mound and Cunningham.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 1 and 13.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
parts of Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8712 3648 8719 3617 8758 3606 8798
      3612 8792 3617 8792 3663 8791 3664 8757
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 247DEG 24KT 3661 8752 3633 8765 3612 8791

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
601 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ024>026-056-057-212345-
Hickman TN-Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-Cheatham TN-Perry TN-
601 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Dickson, central
Cheatham, north central Perry, Humphreys and northern Hickman
Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 600 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near McEwen to 8 miles south of Hurricane
Mills. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Waverly, Centerville, White Bluff, New Johnsonville, McEwen,
Burns, Hurricane Mills, Charlotte, Lobelville, Vanleer, Slayden, Bon
Aqua, Cheatham Dam, Lyles, Bucksnort, Pinewood and Nunnelly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
far northwest Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 8756 3625 8752 3634 8751 3631 8730
      3633 8723 3631 8721 3631 8716 3629 8715
      3632 8706 3614 8717 3596 8720 3596 8727
      3582 8736 3576 8791 3594 8793 3594 8794
      3606 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 255DEG 36KT 3613 8754 3584 8778

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
627 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ007-008-025>027-057-059-220015-
Hickman TN-Robertson TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-
Cheatham TN-Sumner TN-
627 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Davidson, eastern
Dickson, western Sumner, northwestern Williamson, Cheatham,
northeastern Hickman and Robertson Counties through 715 PM CDT...

At 626 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Coopertown to 7 miles
southwest of Fairview. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Springfield, Ashland City, Nashville, Madison,
Hendersonville, Brentwood, Goodlettsville, White House, Millersville,
Greenbrier, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Coopertown, White Bluff, Belle
Meade, Kingston Springs, Pegram, Ridgetop and Cross Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8657 3664 8655 3591 8678 3583 8733
      3645 8714 3646 8712 3647 8713 3654 8711
      3665 8681 3665 8659
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 251DEG 23KT 3650 8705 3592 8724

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
643 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ057-058-060-220030-
Hickman TN-Lewis TN-Maury TN-
643 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Lewis,
northwestern Maury and Hickman Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 643 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hohenwald, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hohenwald, Centerville, Gordonsburg, Kimmins, Pinewood,
Pleasantville, Williamsport and Nunnelly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8748 3567 8771 3597 8750 3570 8710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 221DEG 14KT 3564 8751

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
657 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ095-220045-
Giles TN-
657 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Giles County through
745 PM CDT...

At 657 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Pulaski, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pulaski, Ardmore, Elkton, Minor Hill, Goodspring, Frankewing and
Prospect.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 1 and 20.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8718 3507 8722 3528 8711 3528 8686
      3523 8683 3522 8683 3499 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 242DEG 16KT 3503 8710

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
708 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ007>009-026>029-057>062-075-220045-
Hickman TN-Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Wilson TN-Maury TN-
Cheatham TN-Marshall TN-Macon TN-Robertson TN-Lewis TN-Davidson TN-
Bedford TN-Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-
708 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Middle Tennessee
along the Interstate 65 Corridor through 745 PM CDT...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cross Plains Nashville to Mount
Pleasant. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Franklin, Columbia, Gallatin, Lebanon, Springfield,
Ashland City, Lafayette, Hartsville, Nashville, Madison,
Hendersonville, Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne, Spring Hill, Mount
Juliet, Goodlettsville, White House and Millersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8596 3551 8654 3549 8737 3663 8689
      3665 8679 3665 8659 3663 8656 3665 8651
      3665 8645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 246DEG 24KT 3657 8663 3564 8723

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13