Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1112 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fairly strong dynamics are already in place right now and this
afternoon will we are like to see a decent boost in CAPE. Latest
HiRes pushing numbers 600-1000J depending, and we are already
seeing stronger storms across our extreme northwest responding.
Strong LL shear likely to produce quick spin-ups, and this trend
will continue well into the evening. Also a few discrete
supercells likely to precede QLCS expected later today. While
tornadoes are possible area-wide, our south and east this
afternoon seems to have the most favorable parameters for
development. We have also seen gradient wind gusts around 40mph.
Went ahead an issued a wind advisory into tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR/MVFR conditions are expected at airports this morning with
VCSH/-SHRA and gusty south to southwest winds. TSRA will move over
all terminals this afternoon with IFR vis and strong tstorm wind
gusts. IFR conditions will continue overnight with continued SHRA
and winds becoming northwesterly.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

Flood Watch until 9 PM CST this evening for Cheatham-Clay-
Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Macon-Montgomery-
Robertson-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
520 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021130-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
520 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

As a stationary boundary just to our north continues to encounter
some increasingly unstable air, a few strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible across far northern and northwestern middle
Tennessee through this morning. Strong to damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes, and some hail will be possible.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through 9 PM this evening mainly for
areas along and north of I-40 where heavy rain may lead to isolated
flooding. Up to 2 inches of rainfall will be possible across the
watch area.

A cold front will begin to approach the area late in the day. This
cold front will be working across a very warm and unstable airmass.
As a result, Severe thunderstorms will be possible from mid afternoon
and continue into this evening. Straight line damaging winds, large
hail and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

Look for wind speeds to average from 10 to 15 mph today. By
afternoon, some wind gusts of up to 35 mph will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

On Sunday, the rainshower activity will change over to snow showers
as colder air moves into the region. At this time, only very light
accumulation is possible to the west of the Cumberland Plateau.
Along the Cumberland Plateau however, a half inch or so of
accumulation will be possible, mainly on grassy areas. The warm
ground temperatures should prevent any major driving problems.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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