Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
247 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Convection is ongoing early this afternoon in the eastern half and
a line moving into the northwest ahead of a cold front. CAMs have
struggled to decide on a secondary line of storms closer to the
front this evening that may bring additional chances for strong to
severe storms, especially in the southwest. But, instability will
begin to weaken this evening, and the primary severe threat
remains this afternoon through mid evening or so. Current data
shows MLCAPE values around 500 to 1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear
40 to 50 knots. The HRRR and NAM suggest some bowing segments will
be possible along the line of storms, and would support more of a
damaging wind gust threat. Winds are the primary threat with any
strong to severe storms that develop, but hail and even an
isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out, especially later in
the afternoon to early evening when low level wind shear is
expected to increase with the approaching trough and cold front.
Showers and storms should move off to the east after midnight with
the severe threat likely coming to an end in the late evening.

After the front moves through tonight, dry air will continue to
advect into the mid state during the day. Northwest winds around
10 to 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph will help low level mixing, and
may bring drier air to the surface as well. This will increase the
fire weather threat in the afternoon with min RH values in the 20
to 25 percent range across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Dry conditions will continue for the remainder of the work week,
but a Midwest trough looks to bring another cold front through
this weekend, with additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through the day Sunday. Likely
will not be a washout, but models are showing slightly different
solutions on timing for the weekend. The coldest air so far this
season will follow the front early next week, with highs on
Tuesday only in the 50s and lows in the 30s Tuesday morning. Lows
in the 20s will be possible Wednesday morning in low lying areas
and on the Plateau. Models do show 850mb temps around -2C to -6C
Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning, so freezing temps look
likely both of those mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Showers and thunderstorms will push through the mid-state early in
the TAF period, with MVFR VIS and CIGS expected for all sites.
Will have to watch for strong/variable gusty winds right as the
line of storms moves through, as well as possible brief IFR
conditions. After about 09Z conditions should improve from west to
east with clear skies after 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  72  43  76 /  80   0   0   0
Clarksville    51  71  41  76 /  60   0   0   0
Crossville     55  64  38  65 /  80  10   0   0
Columbia       55  71  41  76 /  80   0   0   0
Cookeville     56  66  40  69 /  80  10   0   0
Jamestown      54  63  40  65 /  80  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   54  70  41  74 /  80   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   56  71  40  75 /  80   0   0   0
Waverly        53  71  43  75 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1059 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-131600-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
1059 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe with damaging winds
being the main threat as well as large hail and a brief tornado
also being possible. The best chances for severe weather will be
south of line from Centerville to Spring Hill to Lewisburg.

All storms will be out of the area by early Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Below freezing temperatures with widespread frost are possible for
most of Middle Tennessee both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local and state guidelines.

Hurley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
215 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

TNZ031>033-122000-
Putnam TN-Overton TN-Jackson TN-
215 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Overton,
southeastern Jackson and northwestern Putnam Counties through 300 PM
CDT...

At 215 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Baxter, or 7 miles south of Gainesboro, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston, Gainesboro, Baxter, Cummins Falls State Park and Standing
Stone State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 8517 3645 8515 3641 8514 3640 8512
      3637 8512 3615 8566 3626 8577 3643 8552
      3641 8550 3646 8548 3650 8541 3650 8540
      3649 8540 3649 8539 3650 8539 3652 8536
      3653 8534 3652 8530 3654 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 236DEG 32KT 3625 8564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

TNZ024>026-057-059-122115-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-Cheatham TN-
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Dickson, northwestern
Williamson, south central Cheatham, east central Humphreys and
northeastern Hickman Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles north of Dickson to 9 miles north of
Centerville. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Ashland City, White Bluff, Kingston Springs, Pegram, Burns,
Fairview, Charlotte, Vanleer, Slayden, Bon Aqua, Lyles and Pinewood.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 156 and 191.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 1 and 15.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8755 3624 8753 3628 8752 3626 8701
      3604 8704 3605 8705 3600 8704 3586 8706
      3592 8761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 274DEG 32KT 3621 8744 3593 8751

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Adcock

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