Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
105 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Looks like we have some patchy fog out there this morning mainly
for locations that saw rain yesterday evening. Any fog should mix
out quickly after sunrise. Overall, not a lot of changes to the
forecast as this week looks to be soggy at times. Zonal flow aloft
coupled with persistent moisture will leave Middle TN in the
sweet spot for showers and thunderstorms each day this week.
Biggest concerns over the next 36 hours will be damaging wind
gusts along with heavy rainfall that may lead to isolated flooding
issues. It's summertime which means a lot of people are outside,
so be mindful that thunderstorms can develop and intensify rather
quickly in our area. We've seen a lot of lightning with storms
lately...and today/tomorrow will be no different. Coverage of
showers and thunderstorms does appear to be more widespread
tomorrow, whereas coverage will likely be scattered today. Model PWAT
values are around 2", which is close to the 90th percentile for
the time of year. While widespread flooding will not be an issue,
those that have already received decent rainfall the past few days
and/or those that are flood-prone could see some issues today and
especially tomorrow. Temps will remain in the mid 80s along the
Plateau and low to mid 90s elsewhere through the middle of the
week. Heat Index Values will be in the low 100s along and west of
I-65.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Really will not see any notable differences in our forecast as we
move into the second half of the week and the weekend. Model
soundings aren't overly impressive for the second half of the
week, but PWAT values will remain around 2". Flooding will be a
continued concern as we move into the second half of the week,
which will greatly depend on where the majority of rain has
already fallen. Most models continue to show the highest rainfall
amounts along the Upper Cumberland, which has been winning the
rainfall lottery lately. Five-day rainfall totals are anywhere
from 2 to 4 inches across the area, with the lowest amounts near
the TN/AL border and the highest amounts in our NE counties.

Zonal flow over the area finally begins to break down over the
weekend, although I do not think we will be able to get rid of the
showers and thunderstorms just yet. Surface frontal boundary will
sag southward on Friday, but will provide little relief as
plentiful moisture remains. The one good thing with this boundary
will be our temps will fall back slightly, with most of the area
in the low to mid 80s for our highs beginning Friday through the
weekend. Right now it looks like drier conditions will return by
the beginning to middle of next week, but still a lot of
uncertainty this many days away.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Scattered thunderstorms are developing and expected to affect the
terminals through the afternoon and the early evening. While there
are VCSH now, thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase
throughout the afternoon into the evening. Intermittent MVFR
ceilings may occur as the thunderstorms move across the area, but
this should improve to VFR overnight. Winds are generally out of
the south at 5-10 KT, but could gust 15-20 KT through the evening
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      77  93  75  91 /  30  50  50  70
Clarksville    76  93  74  89 /  40  60  60  80
Crossville     70  85  69  84 /  30  50  40  70
Columbia       75  94  74  92 /  20  50  30  60
Cookeville     73  88  72  86 /  40  50  50  80
Jamestown      71  85  70  84 /  40  60  60  80
Lawrenceburg   75  91  74  91 /  20  40  30  60
Murfreesboro   75  93  74  92 /  30  50  40  70
Waverly        76  94  73  91 /  30  50  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Adcock
LONG TERM....Adcock
AVIATION.....Whitehead/Forbeck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
214 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-270715-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
214 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will form this afternoon and evening. Locally
heavy downpours could cause brief flash flooding. Also, a few storms
may be strong with gusty winds.

Heat Index values will be in the low 100s along and west of I-65 this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered thunderstorms with localized flash flooding
will be possible through the week.

A few storms may be severe each afternoon and evening through
Thursday. Localized damaging wind gusts will be the main concern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

TNZ005-006-261830-
Stewart TN-Montgomery TN-
1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Montgomery and eastern Stewart Counties through 130 PM CDT...

At 1254 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Big Rock, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Big Rock, Cumberland City and Indian Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 8760 3637 8767 3649 8789 3663 8784
      3664 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 289DEG 10KT 3655 8779

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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