Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
140 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Approaching cold front continues to support showers and
thunderstorms just to the north of the mid state, but will work
their way into the area over the next hour or two. Very high CAPE
values of 3000 J/kg and higher in some areas will support some
strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts, but the high moisture/PWAT values are more concerning for
flooding potential, especially for the eastern half/northeast part
of the area. CAMs have initialized poorly with existing convection
overnight but most show continued development ahead of the front
and moving SE through the eastern half of the area this morning.
Based on PWAT, CAPE, and earlier storms in KY, heavy rainfall
potential of 1-2" per hour rates will be possible and will lead to
isolated flooding. Should storms take a more easterly track ahead
of the front, and training of heavy thunderstorms occurs, rainfall
amounts will exceed current forecasts and the flooding risk will
increase for the areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain in a
short timeframe.

The front will move through the area this morning into the early
afternoon, and slightly drier air will move in behind. This should
keep more widespread heat index values from getting above 100
degrees, but temperatures will still be in the low to mid 90s for
most areas. A heat advisory will be in effect for the far
southwest parts of the mid state that will still have enough
moisture to get heat index values above 105 degrees this
afternoon. Drier conditions will move in Friday with high pressure
building in aloft, and high temps back into the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Saturday and Sunday look to be dry with continued high pressure
aloft, and weak southerly flow should bring more moisture back to
the area. This will result in heat index values again getting near
and above heat advisory criteria, and will likely need an advisory
through the weekend at a minimum. Getting into Sunday
night/Monday, the upper high sags southeast of the area, and
allows for multiple shortwaves to move over the area through next
week. This will keep precip chances in daily, and may help cool
temperatures slightly in the afternoon. Best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be Monday through Tuesday, especially in
the afternoon hours, and again during the afternoon hours
Thursday. But each day next week will have at least chance pops
for the afternoon, so hopefully we can continue to get some much
needed rainfall as well as lower high temps in the afternoon a bit
to the low to mid 90s to be just a little above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Significant convection is underway over southern KY, with only
isolated cells occurring in Middle Tennessee at this time. This
activity is occurring ahead of a surface boundary that is poised
to sweep through the area later this morning. There is a chance of
TS at all Middle Tennessee terminals during the next few hours,
especially at CSV. All active weather should be gone by 12Z, with
VFR wx the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  71  98  74 /  10  10   0   0
Clarksville    95  68  99  71 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     85  65  89  68 /  30  10   0   0
Columbia       95  69  98  72 /  20  10   0   0
Cookeville     88  68  91  70 /  20  10   0   0
Jamestown      86  66  90  68 /  20  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   93  69  95  71 /  30  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   94  69  97  72 /  20  10   0   0
Waverly        96  70  98  73 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Giles-Lawrence-Wayne.

&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Rose

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
116 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

TNZ011-034-210645-
Fentress TN-Pickett TN-
116 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Pickett
and northern Fentress Counties through 145 AM CDT...

At 116 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Pisgah, or 10 miles northeast of Jamestown, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pickett State Park and Pall Mall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 8468 3650 8506 3662 8515 3660 8479
      3651 8472 3644 8469 3641 8466 3640 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 286DEG 22KT 3657 8486

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Rose