Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
227 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Temperatures continue to climb this afternoon ahead of the
approaching cold front, and storms have already begun to develop
in KY just ahead of the front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are
providing plenty of moisture, and strong instability is in place
across the mid state. With the front approaching, additional
showers and storms will develop, and have the potential to become
strong to severe, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.
PWAT values remain high as well, and some CAMs suggest showers and
storms later this evening and overnight may be able to run more
east to west, and any training of these storms may lead to some
localized flooding concerns. Instability does weaken tonight into
the overnight hours, but enough exists ahead of the front to keep
chances for stronger storms in the overnight hours.

It appears that the front may move a bit further south than
previous guidance suggested, which will limit pops to the far
south and southeast Wednesday. Should the front stall further
north, precip chances will move north as well. Right now the
strong to severe storm risk will be further south, but depending
on the location of the front, a few strong storms will be possible
in the far south Wednesday afternoon. Conditions should be dry
Wednesday night as the Midwest trough slowly moves east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Thursday and Friday now look to be dry as the Midwest trough moves
east and a Plains high keeps us in northwest flow with little
disturbances absent in the pattern. The GFS and ECMWF remain on
different solutions from Saturday onward as the GFS brings a
shortwave and front over the area Saturday, and the ECMWF remains
dry. They both agree that the tropical low phases with a trough to
our south, and keeps a lot of the showers and storms associated
with that low to the south as well. However, with more of a
northwest flow pattern and frequent troughs moving through to our
north, both models are suggesting a more active and wetter pattern
for next week. Either model doesnt show a wash out by any means,
and both have little agreement on timing, but it seems that we
will have more chances for rain starting Saturday but especially
Sunday and Monday where there is a little bit of agreement.
Diurnal forcing will help the weaker upper flow pattern so have
slightly higher pops for the afternoon hours. Temps look to be
near seasonal normals for at least the first half of the week next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

VFR conditions continue for now, with TSRA/VCTS expected this
afternoon and overnight. Periods of decreased vis and cigs
possible if thunderstorm moves directly over terminal. Do expect
fog to develop overnight at CSV, with IFR vis expected and some
LIFR conditions certainly possible between 10Z and 13Z. Westerly
winds will become more northerly after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  92  69  93 /  50  10   0   0
Clarksville    67  91  65  93 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     66  82  62  84 /  60  30  10  10
Columbia       69  91  66  92 /  60  20  10  10
Cookeville     68  85  64  87 /  60  10   0   0
Jamestown      66  83  63  84 /  60  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   69  88  66  90 /  40  30  10  10
Murfreesboro   70  90  65  92 /  60  10   0   0
Waverly        70  89  67  92 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Adcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
327 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-131000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
327 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Heat index values will range 100 to 105 degrees for
locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region this afternoon.

Some strong to severe thunderstorms maybe possible late this
afternoon into evening hours tonight across mid state region.
Strong gusty to damaging winds will be main concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS
while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

JB Wright

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