Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1242 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

Heat headlines have been cancelled. Temps have dropped off this
evening, especially in areas that have received rain and
thunderstorms.

A few marginally severe storms occurred this evening across the
Upper Cumberland with downed limbs and such, but most of the
storms have been sub-severe with heavy downpours, lightning, and
wind gusts around 35mph. Activity has been decreasing with
sunset, but we do expect things to pick up again through the
night. A weak boundary and low pressure wave will approach from
the northwest. Even in the late night hours, adequate instability
will remain for some "strong" storms, especially across the west
half which has not been worked over by storms. Abundant
atmospheric moisture will make heavy downpours likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

A few showers and thunderstorms have started to pop up early this
afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough and cold front that will
move through later this evening. Plenty of moisture exists at the
surface, with afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across the
area. CAMs show isolated activity this afternoon and early evening
before a larger cluster of storms moves in during the mid evening
in the north and spreads to the southeast through the early
overnight hours. Models are still showing a bit of a difference in
timing, which is to be expected due to differences in the speed of
the front/evolution of the cold pool and outflow from the
convection this evening. Larger scale models show a decline in the
instability this evening into the overnight hours, while CAMs
still show decent CAPE in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range. Deep layer
shear does pick up slightly, but still on the weaker side, so with
any strong to severe storms the main threat will be damaging wind
gusts and some hail. All models show very high PWAT values in the
2.25 to 2.5 inch range, so any training of stronger showers and
storms or slower progression will provide an isolated flooding
threat as well. Showers and storms should be out of the mid state
before sunrise Saturday.

A deeper trough will try to move southeast on Saturday, and bring
a more pronounced front during the day. With northwest flow,
models want to place the better chances for showers and storms in
the south and east where diurnal support/frontal timing will be
better. Instability will be lingering around again ahead of the
front, so some strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts
will not be out of the question. Chances for precip should move
out during the evening, and be drier overnight with most areas
finally seeing lows get into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

Sunday will see the upper trough move southeast overhead, with
some precip chances in the far southeast during the day. Rest of
the area should be dry, and a bit cooler, with highs in the low
80s to around 90. But, this cooler trend will be short lived as
the trough moves east and a strong Plains high slowly moves east
behind. High temps by Tuesday will be in the low to mid 90s. But
thankfully, another Midwest trough will move to the southeast
Tuesday night into the day Wednesday and provide some additional
relief from the heat but also bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday. Shortwave disturbances aloft to our
south may keep storm chances in the far south on Thursday, but
Friday looks to be dry with temperatures around seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

A complex of storms is moving south out of Kentucky and is
expected to impact the terminal overnight. Vis could drop to IFR
while storms impact the terminals. More scattered showers and
storms are expected on Saturday as a cold front moves through the
area. WSW winds will shift to the NNW/N as the front passes the
terminals. Behind the front, MVFR cigs will move in for the rest
of the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  70  90  70 /  60  30  10   0
Clarksville    89  67  89  65 /  50  10   0   0
Crossville     83  66  81  65 /  80  50  30  10
Columbia       93  69  90  67 /  60  40  10   0
Cookeville     86  68  84  67 /  80  50  20   0
Jamestown      83  65  82  64 /  80  50  20   0
Lawrenceburg   91  69  88  68 /  70  50  10   0
Murfreesboro   92  70  90  69 /  70  40  10   0
Waverly        91  68  90  66 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Reagan

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
212 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

TNZ007-008-026>029-090800-
Robertson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Cheatham TN-
Sumner TN-
212 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Davidson,
Sumner, northwestern Wilson, Cheatham, Trousdale and Robertson
Counties through 300 AM CDT...

At 212 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Portland to 12 miles west of Ashland City.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Springfield, Ashland City, Hartsville, Nashville, Madison,
Hendersonville, Mount Juliet, Goodlettsville, White House,
Millersville, Greenbrier, Coopertown, Kingston Springs, Lakewood,
Pegram, Ridgetop, Cross Plains, Portland and Old Hickory.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 191 and 193, and between mile
markers 199 and 209.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 85 and 118.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 18 and 49.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 8618 3644 8617 3640 8600 3607 8703
      3616 8717 3618 8715 3621 8719 3624 8717
      3625 8719 3627 8716 3630 8715 3633 8723
      3632 8729 3635 8728 3641 8721 3642 8715
      3644 8715 3646 8712 3650 8712 3664 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 290DEG 35KT 3655 8656 3632 8725

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
250 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

TNZ027-028-059-061>063-075-090830-
Cannon TN-Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-
Bedford TN-Marshall TN-
250 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Davidson,
northeastern Marshall, Rutherford, eastern Williamson, Wilson,
northwestern Bedford and northern Cannon Counties through 330 AM
CDT...

At 249 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lebanon to near Bellevue. Movement was
south at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Franklin, Lebanon, Woodbury, Smyrna, Brentwood, La
Vergne, Mount Juliet, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle
Meade, Thompson's Station, Watertown, Hermitage, Walterhill, Rural
Hill, Bellevue, Antioch and Belinda City.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 196 and 199, and between mile
markers 209 and 248.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 55 and 82.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 49 and 92.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 29 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8605 3596 8602 3587 8592 3561 8641
      3566 8682 3569 8681 3571 8678 3574 8686
      3610 8697 3633 8626 3631 8627 3630 8626
      3631 8625 3633 8625 3634 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 346DEG 42KT 3621 8629 3603 8697

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

10