Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
152 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

Our main concern continues to be the potential for localized
flash flooding as periods of showers and thunderstorms impact
Middle Tennessee through this weekend. The showers and storms are
developing in a soupy air mass ahead of a near stationary low
pressure system over the Mid Ms Valley. The low pressure is
sandwiched between high pressure systems over the western states
and the Atlantic. This stagnant showery pattern will continue for
several days, and probably throughout the entire week ahead.

Last night, some areas received very heavy rainfall. Storms persisted
for hours across the Maury County area with some spots north of
Columbia picking up over 7 inches of rainfall! Other heavy pockets
of heavy rain occurred around Smyrna, just south of Lebanon, and
up across Hartsville. Thankfully we have not heard of any
widespread major flooding issues so far. The ingredients for
heavy rainfall will stay with us through at least Sunday and
probably into Monday as well. Precipitable water values will hover
around 2 inches, which is above 90th percentile and above 150
percent of normal. The air will be unstable with peak cape values
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range each afternoon, with a decent amount
of cape lingering throughout the night as well. The cape will be
vertically distributed within a deep and very warm cloud layer,
resulting in very efficient rainfall production. This means some
storms could produce more than 2 or 3 inch per hour rainfall
rates! At this time, we are not posting a flood headline with
flooding potential expected to be localized, but that may change
depending on rainfall trends, new model data, and collaboration
with surrounding weather offices.

This afternoon, showers and storms were blossoming, and this trend
will continue through late afternoon and evening. In addition to
the heavy rain potential, sudden development of lightning will be
a threat to outdoor activities. Please seek shelter right away
when storms approach. A few storms may produce gusty winds over
40mph this afternoon and evening, but we do not expect a lot of
severe weather from this pattern.

Sunday will bring similar trends with on and off showers and
storms peaking in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

The unsettled pattern with showers and storms will continue for
Labor Day and beyond. The local flood risk may lessen after Labor
Day as the main moisture axis shifts around and the low pressure
system weakens a little. Still, there will be high chances for
rain throughout the week, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The muggy air will keep overnight lows from falling
much, but mainly cloudy and showery days will tend to keep high
temperatures a few degrees below normal.

Many locations will have 2 to 3 inches of rain through the next 7
days, but locally heavier amounts over 5 inches are certainly
possible, and much of that local heavy rain will fall within the
next 48 hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

Scattered thunderstorms could impact the terminals this afternoon
through overnight. Models are favoring CKV this afternoon and
BNA/MQY during the late afternoon and evening. Confidence isn't as
high at CSV, so only included VCTS there. Cigs Sunday morning
after 12z could drop to MVFR at BNA/CKV/MQY and IFR at CSV. Winds
will generally be out of the south around 5 kts unless an outflow
boundary this afternoon/evening temporarily turn winds as it moves
across a terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  83  71  83 /  90 100  80  80
Clarksville    70  84  70  84 /  80  90  60  60
Crossville     66  75  65  75 /  60 100 100  90
Columbia       70  83  69  83 /  90  90  70  70
Cookeville     69  80  68  79 /  70 100  80  90
Jamestown      66  78  65  75 /  60 100  90  90
Lawrenceburg   70  81  68  82 /  80  90  70  70
Murfreesboro   70  83  69  83 /  90 100  80  80
Waverly        68  83  68  83 /  80  90  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Reagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1002 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041515-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
1002 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Localized flash flooding may occur late this afternoon through
tonight as showers and storms produce pockets of heavy rainfall.
A few storms may produce gusty winds over 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Localized flash flooding may occur Sunday through Monday as showers
and storms produce pockets of heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of unusually heavy rainfall or flooding should be relayed to
the National Weather Service in Nashville.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
310 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

TNZ005-006-032045-
Stewart TN-Montgomery TN-
310 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Montgomery and Stewart Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 309 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Big Rock, or 8 miles northeast of Dover, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Clarksville, Big Rock, Cumberland City, Indian Mound and
Woodlawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8780 3664 8777 3664 8741 3637 8759
      3638 8801 3640 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 263DEG 17KT 3656 8772

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
332 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

TNZ005-032115-
Stewart TN-
332 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Stewart
County through 415 PM CDT...

At 332 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dover, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Big Rock and Land Between The Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8765 3635 8793
      3635 8798 3637 8800 3645 8806 3647 8805
      3649 8806 3652 8804 3658 8804 3668 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 194DEG 14KT 3653 8791

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
340 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

TNZ024-032115-
Humphreys TN-
340 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Humphreys
County through 415 PM CDT...

At 340 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hurricane Mills, or 11 miles south of Waverly, moving north at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waverly, McEwen and Hurricane Mills.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 142 and 148.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 8791 3609 8754 3605 8755 3592 8765
      3591 8766 3592 8768 3591 8770 3590 8771
      3587 8771 3589 8791
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 191DEG 13KT 3593 8781

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Whitehead