Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
930 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

With the same warm, humid, and unstable air mass in place, showers
and storms will once again blossom in the afternoon. The slow approach
of a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley and falling heights with a
mid level trough will add to the forcing, so coverage should be
even greater than yesterday. "Almost everybody" will get some
rain this afternoon and evening. As noted in the early morning
discussion, precipitable water values will be around 2 inches
through the day with weak shear and slow storm movement (east
northeast 10-15mph). This will set the stage for efficient
rainfall rates and possible localized flooding. Also, local gusty
winds over 50mph will be possible with the strongest storms.

As the surface boundary moves through our area Thursday, most of
the showers and storms will focus south of I-40, then the rain
will shut off by Friday as we begin to enjoy much less humid air.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Rinse and repeat another day. Today looks very similar to
yesterday except Pwat values are even higher. Values today look to
max out around 2-2.1". Shear will remain weak today with minimal
storm motion, so localized flooding will be a threat once again.
In addition, enough CAPE will exist again for an isolated strong
wind threat this afternoon. We will start seeing some movement in
the upper air pattern as a trough digs southeastward out of the
northern plains on Thursday. Ahead of this, a surface front will
slowly push through the area on Thursday. Showers and storms can
be expected ahead of the front. Shear will remain weak, so an
organized severe threat is not expected with the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

The shower and storm activity will cease Thursday night as drier
air filters in from the north. Friday looks dry with dew points
falling through the day. Highs should stay in the low to mid 80s
areawide. Friday night will be the coolest night of the forecast
with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The nice weather will
continue through the weekend with pleasant humidity and tolerable
temperatures. While still not bad, Sunday will see moisture and
temperatures begin to creep up as the western upper high tries to
expand eastward. As we move into next week, our area will be
sandwiched between the upper high and the influences of the large
eastern trough. A couple of disturbance could ride along the
northwesterly upper flow triggering a few showers and storms on
Monday and Tuesday. The latest runs of the Euro and GFS have
another cold front sweep through the area late Tuesday bringing
another reprieve from the heat and humidity on Wednesday. We'll
keep our fingers crossed!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Showers and storms will be on the docket again today. Activity
will increase in the afternoon and the most likely impacts to
terminals will be during that time. Heavy rainfall could decrease
visibilities and lower cigs. Coverage will decrease in the
evening, but cigs are expected to lower after midnight. Patchy fog
may impact CKV and CSV after 06z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  71  88  68 / 100  80  50   0
Clarksville    86  69  88  66 /  80  70  20   0
Crossville     80  67  79  64 /  90  90  70   0
Columbia       87  70  87  67 /  90  80  50  10
Cookeville     83  69  82  65 /  90  90  60   0
Jamestown      80  67  79  63 /  90  90  50   0
Lawrenceburg   85  70  84  66 /  80  70  60  20
Murfreesboro   88  70  87  67 /  90  80  50   0
Waverly        87  70  88  67 /  90  70  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Whitehead

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
257 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-110800-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
257 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few slow-moving storms could produce heavy rain leading to localized
flooding. In addition, a few storms could produce isolated damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

10