Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Nashville, TN

090 
WGUS74 KOHX 230257
FFSOHX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
857 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

TNC055-099-117-181-230307-
/O.EXP.KOHX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220223T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Giles TN-Lawrence TN-Marshall TN-Wayne TN-
857 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR 
GILES, LAWRENCE, SOUTHERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Additional flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CST Wednesday for a 
portion of Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3500 8774 3518 8776 3537 8706 3538 8662
      3536 8660 3533 8660 3531 8668 3525 8675
      3526 8683 3499 8684

$$

Rose

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
553 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms developed far earlier than CAMs/long
term models suggested late in the day yesterday, with a line of
storms running on outflow from earlier convection before sunrise.
CAMs continue to struggle initiating on existing convection, and
since showers and storms ran through the area much earlier,
instability and warmer surface temps never materialized. However,
ahead of the line of showers and storms, some warmer air and
instability does exist, so the threat of damaging wind gusts from
storms is not out of the question. The main threat remains though,
and thats flooding. A steady rainfall after the initial heavy rain
continues this afternoon, and additional development will continue
ahead of the cold front now through the overnight hours as the
front moves through. This will keep the flooding threat going,
especially if any stronger updrafts develop, but even a steady
moderate rain will be impactful to area creeks and rivers, as well
as keep the soil drenched for the next round of rain moving in
later on Wednesday.

After a brief dry period Wednesday afternoon, the next round of
rain will come in with shortwave activity aloft ahead of the
larger trough in the western US. A warm front looks to move north
and potential stall just to the north in KY or over northern
zones. All models place the highest rainfall amounts north of
I-40, where another 2 to 4 inches on top of what falls this
afternoon and overnight. The rest of the mid state looks to get
another 1 to 3 inches, but any shift in the warm front or even
timing of the cold front moving through late Thursday into Friday.
There may be enough moisture left over Friday morning for some
snow to mix in on the backside of the precip, but dont have any
accumulation in as there shouldnt be much snow and the ground
should be warm enough to prevent even a dusting.

Temps will cool Friday onward, and another Plains trough looks to
impact the mid state Saturday night into Sunday. There may be a
window for some sleet/freezing rain, but its still too early to
make the call on precip type. Right now have the event starting
out as rain late Saturday, transitioning to a rain/snow mix as
well as some snow in the northern zones. Have very light
accumulations in, but will need to see more cold air moving in
sooner Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Rain continues to impact the terminals with visibilities dropping
at times. Rain will end from west to east slowly overnight as the
surface cold front moves through the terminals. Cigs are expected
to drop to MVFR/IFR overnight before improving to VFR by mid day
Wednesday except at CSV where MVFR cigs will remain. Winds will
shift to the northwest behind the front and eventually calm at or
below 5 kts.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Reagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
246 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-232100-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
246 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heavy rainfall possible through tonight which may lead to
flooding/flash flooding across the mid state. Some strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible in far southern and southeastern zones
this afternoon into the early evening with damaging winds as the
main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heavy rainfall will again be possible Wednesday evening through
Friday morning which may lead to additional flooding/flash flooding
across the mid state.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

06

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
528 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

TNZ093>095-230000-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Giles TN-
528 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Wayne,
southern Lawrence and northern Giles Counties through 600 PM CST...

At 528 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lawrenceburg to 10 miles north of
Underwood-Petersville. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Loretto, St. Joseph, Lynnville, Leoma,
Westpoint and Iron City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8780 3507 8781 3542 8702 3521 8690
      3500 8755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 246DEG 44KT 3520 8728 3502 8770

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rose

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
603 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             LORETTO                 35.08N 87.44W
02/22/2022  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL OBSERVED ON THE NORTH SIDE
            OF LORETTO.

&&