Wind Advisory 14, NWS Omaha, NE

Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Knox County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
325 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Winds and thunderstorm chances are the primary forecast concerns
through Saturday, although we could hit the extreme fire danger
category by mid to late Saturday afternoon in about the northwest
half of the forecast area.

After the fog burned off yesterday, it turned out to be a decent day
with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s at most spots. The wind
was tolerable and a few locations even had a little rain. Storms
became a bit higher in coverage overnight. Those will probably last
several more hours before moving northeast out of the forecast area
by mid to late morning. Isolated severe weather is possible, mainly
in the form of hail, but a few storms have produced gusty winds.
There is a 40 to 60 knot low level jet early this morning, with
highest values mostly to our west. That will weaken after sunrise
today, then redevelop tonight.

Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning in combination with
recent RUC model initializations showed a strong mid level system
digging into CA. Height falls associated with that will progress
toward the Four Corners region by 21Z today, into western NE after
midnight tonight, then to the ND/SD/MN border area by Saturday
evening. A closed low at 500 mb will be strengthening as it tracks
from WY this evening to southeast ND by late Saturday night. Several
centers of low pressure at the surface were located over WY and CO
at 3 am this morning, which will help maintain strong southerly flow
in our area today into Saturday. Dewpoints locally at 3 am ranged
from the lower 40s at the SD border to near 60 at the KS border.
Moist low level air (surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower
60s) will overspread all of the area today and tonight. Drier air
should work in behind the cold front Saturday afternoon (dropping
dewpoints into the lower 30s in northeast NE). That will push the
fire danger to the very high and possibly extreme category behind
the front.

Relative to winds, we will keep the high wind watch going for
tonight, but will be issuing a wind advisory for eastern NE today.
That will start in 2 segments, one at 10 am and one at 1 pm. Expect
gusts over 40 mph at times. Strong winds are likely to continue for
tonight and also for Saturday ahead of the cold front. So the wind
advisory will likely need extension later today, when we make a
decision on whether or not we may need a high wind warning for
portions of the forecast area. A wind advisory may also be needed
for Saturday.

Relative to severe storm chances later today, tonight and Saturday,
there is a decent amount of uncertainty. The most likely scenario
after storms exit the area this morning is that we will not have
much going on until later tonight. Some storms could go up with
the unstable airmass, but there is not much of a trigger or focus.
Storms will mostly likely develop out over the high Plains this
evening. Some storms could develop across northeast NE during the
mid to late evening. The main convective line may not hold
together as it tracks east later tonight. So again, a lot of
uncertainty. Then there will be another chance for severe weather
mainly from late Saturday afternoon into the evening in southeast
NE/southwest IA ahead of the cold front in the moist air.

High temperatures today should vary from around 90 in our far
western counties to upper 70s and lower 80s in southwest IA. Expect
lows tonight in the 60s and then highs Saturday from the mid 70s to
lower 80s.

Dry weather is expected from Sunday through Tuesday night, then it
may turn a bit more active for Wednesday into Friday. Highs will
reach the 50s north and 60s south on Sunday, be mainly in the 50s
Monday, then 60s Tuesday. Expect highs in the 60s and 70s later in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Another round of showers and storms will be possible overnight
tonight. Although coverage could be hit or miss, the the best
chance for storms impacting the TAF sites will be from 06-09Z. LLWS
is expected at all sites while gusty winds will ramp up Friday
morning. Windy conditions will persist through the afternoon
hours, with VFR conditions returning shortly after 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-051>053-067-068-
     090>093.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for NEZ050-065-066-078-088-089.

     High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
     NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042-043-050-065-078-088.

IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...KG

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