Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
332 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Large scale flow consisting of negative tilt trough with embedded
circulation situated over WY. At the surface, area of low
pressure was located over south-central SD with a warm front
extending into southern MN and a cold front extending to northeast
CO. Per 88D mosaic storms have already formed along dry line in
western KS and expanded into south-central NE. Environment
activity is pushing into is quite unstable with MUCAPE roughly
4000 J/kg. Expect intensification trend to continue this afternoon
as line of storms forge eastward. At this point, the HRRR is
advertising this initial surge of convection will weaken late
this afternoon with more development along the cold front
sweeping in from the west. At this point expect thrust of
strong/severe linear storms to roll across the CWA this evening
with damaging straight line wind threat more prevalent along and
north of I-80. Frontal passage should be underway in the Omaha
metro sometime toward 06Z. Any lingering precip activity should be
clear of the CWA by sunrise Friday morning.

Very pleasant conditions expected then Friday and Saturday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday night/Sunday
morning in response to a cold front dropping out of the Dakotas.
Through early next week precip chances will prevail in association
with embedded impulses moving across the region.

Highs:
Fri - low 80s
Sat - low 80s
Sun - mid 70s
Mon - upper 70s/low 80s
Tue - mid/upper 70s
Wed - mid/upper 70s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Deteriorating conditions expected at all TAF sites this evening.
Line of strong TSRA is expected to develop over central NE
sometime around 21Z this afternoon and intensify as it moves east.
Severe winds will likely accompany line of storms with G50KT or
greater by 02Z-03Z. Expect TSRA activity to move out of the area
then around 07Z. Expect very strong non-convective LLWS threat at
all terminals leading up to storm arrival.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...DEE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
311 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-131015-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
311 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

A line of severe thunderstorms will move through northeast
Nebraska this afternoon. The primary hazard will be winds to 80
mph or stronger. These damaging winds may be accompanied by hail
up to the size of golfballs in the most intense storms.

This evening, an additional line of strong to severe storms will
move across much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The
strongest parts of this line of storms will be capable of
producing winds to 70 mph or stronger, as well as hail up to the
size of quarters. Storms should move out of the area by 2 AM
Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Thursday

Additional thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night into
Sunday, though they are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
427 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NIOBRARA                42.75N 98.03W
05/12/2022                   KNOX               NE   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREES DOWN.

&&

TSN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
433 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE BATTLE CREEK      42.07N 97.56W
05/12/2022                   MADISON            NE   PUBLIC

            ROOF OFF MACHINE SHED.

&&

TSN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
449 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S FORDYCE             42.63N 97.38W
05/12/2022  M75 MPH          CEDAR              NE   MESONET

&&

TSN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>