Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
638 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Tonight...

A potent storm system will affect the region this evening bringing
the threat of significant severe to eastern Nebraska and southwest
Iowa.

Early morning thunderstorms moving out of southwest Iowa managed to
produce some severe gusts with evaporative processes behind a
departing mesolow. Brief clearing behind this precipitation will
allow a robust CAPE corridor of 1500-3000 J/kg over south-central
Nebraska. Storms firing to our east late this afternoon will reach
our forecast area in eastern Nebraska around 6-7 PM this evening.
Large looping hodographs indicate strong rotation in the lower
levels. SRH will increase to around 300 m2s2 in the 0-1 km range,
with surface winds backed to the southeast ahead of the incoming
low. Should any supercells develop out ahead of the primary line of
storms, they could pose an initial tornado threat. Given the strong
forcing, expect storms to intensify very quickly. This will likely
lead convection to quickly congeal into a QLCS/supercell combo with
the potential for large hail, strong winds and tornadoes, eventually
transitioning to a QLCS with the potential for strong winds along
with an embedded mesovorticy tornado threat. The latest SPC outlook
seems to hit the mark highlighting the primary threat across far
southeast Nebraska, with an enhanced risk spreading across all of
the forecast area, except for northeast Nebraska.

Heavy rain remains a concern as well, given the heavy rain that fell
last night.  Platte and Madison counties would be especially
vulnerable after having received reports of up to 10" of
rainfall.

Saturday and Sunday...

A tightening pressure gradient on the back side of the passing low
will bring gusty northwest winds to the region Saturday. Gusts up to
45kts will be possible over northeast Nebraska, prompting us to
hoist Wind Advisory for that area.

Lingering precipitation will finally exit to the northeast Saturday
night, allowing dry weather to prevail on Sunday. While not as
breezy, gusty winds up to 30 kts are expected to persist into
Sunday.

Next Week...

Active weather will continue next week, with another round of strong
storms possible in the central plains Monday through Monday night.
Periodic showers and thunderstorm chances will continue through next
week with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Strong to severe storms are beginning to overspread eastern
Nebraska. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to continue as storms
roll through this evening. A brief window of VFR conditions may
return behind the line of strong storms overnight, before MVFR
cover returns Saturday morning. Northwesterly winds will wrap into
the region, as well, Saturday. Gusts of 30-40 kts will be
possible through the morning and into the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
354 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-301100-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
354 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

Severe storms appear likely between 6 PM and 11 PM, mainly along
and south of an Albion to Sioux City line. All hazards are
possible, including a few tornadoes, hail to size of limes,
damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, and localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Friday

Strong northwest winds with gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible on
Saturday.

Thunderstorm activity may return to the region on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

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