Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
623 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Storm intensity and coverage through midnight is the main forecast
concern. Wednesday should be mainly dry, but there are some signals
that isolated activity may push southeast into parts of northeast NE
and west central IA with heating in the afternoon. Anything that
forms should dissipate early in the evening. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be increasing on Thursday. Main severe risk
Thursday (at least for now) still looks to be mostly west of our
area.

Expect some severe storms in the area through about midnight, maybe
just a bit longer near the KS and MO borders. Large hail and winds
over 60 mph seem to be the main hazards. Airmass has become somewhat
unstable with SPC Meso page showing 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE at 3 pm
over much of the forecast area, but lower near the SD border.
Effective bulk shear is adequate, with 35-45 knots shown over much
of our area. Storms should continue take an east or southeast
trajectory as they move in from the west. There still is not a clear
signal in the various convection allowing models (CAMs) but if the
18Z HRRR is close to correct we may have a few isolated severe
storms with mainly a hail threat prior to 7 pm north of a line from
David City to Omaha and Atlantic Iowa. Then more widespread storms
could sweep in with a wind and hail threat from 8 pm until midnight
mostly south of a line from David City to Plattsmouth and Red Oak.

Winds aloft are fairly strong and there is a decent mid level
shortwave trough that will push through the region overnight into
Wednesday morning. The trough should be along a line from about
Upper MI to eastern OK by 18Z Wednesday. A mid level ridge will
then build east for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, but
will then dampen out. A mid level anticyclone should develop over
the Four Corners region Friday/Saturday, then move eastward
Sunday and Monday as a new trough digs into the western US. That
trough should bring more active weather for the northern Plains
(and possibly our area as well) Monday/Tuesday. Model agreement on
the large scale pattern drops off by the mid part of next week.

After Thursday of this week, rain chances will be lower with mainly
dry weather expected from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
Then small chances for precipitation return after that. High
temperatures should turn warmer, and right now appear like this:
Wednesday 75 to 80, Thursday in the 70s north and upper 70s or
lower 80s south, Friday mid to upper 70s, Saturday upper 70s and
lower 80s (some mid 80s possible), Sunday in the 80s, Monday mid
80s to lower 90s, Tuesday mostly 80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Main concerns are severe storm chances this evening, and will keep
mention of TSRA in TAFs - for KOFK until 03z and then for KOMA and
KLNK until 05Z or 06Z. Right now have timed main brunt of storms
through KLNK and KOMA 02Z to 04Z with some gusts. Gusts could
reach at or above 50 knots at KLNK but did not feel confident
enough for that at this point and went with 45 knots. Hail also
possible and will add if needed in an amendment. There are some
signals at potential for MVFR ceilings later tonight, but left out
for now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...Miller

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
335 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-081045-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
335 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through about
midnight across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. A few
isolated severe storms with mainly a hail and strong wind threat
are possible prior to 7 pm mainly north of a line from David City
to Omaha and Atlantic Iowa. Then more widespread storms could
sweep in with a damaging wind and large hail threat from 8 pm
until midnight, mostly south of a line from about David City to
Plattsmouth and Red Oak. There is a small chance for a tornado or
two, mostly in southeast Nebraska this evening.

Some storms may linger past midnight in southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, but the chance of severe weather with those seems
low at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

Additional strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon
and evening, mainly affecting parts of eastern Nebraska.

Thunderstorm chances continue from the weekend into early next
week. Later outlooks will address the chance of severe storms in
those periods.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation could be needed for parts of the area through
this evening. Please pass along any reports.