Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
611 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Warm and windy across the area this afternoon with southerly to
southwesterly winds gusting 30-35 mph in many locations and
temperatures as of 3 PM generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Features of note included a surface low spinning over SD with an
attendant warm front stretching eastward into southern MN and cold
front southwestward into western NE, along with a "punch" of dry
air just ahead of the cold front.

As the cold front advances into the area this evening, should see
at least some shower and storm development along it, though still
lots of uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and strength of
any storms that do develop, with the main "deciding factor" being
moisture availability. OAX 18Z observed sounding did show quite a
bit of dry air through 500 mb, though surface observations did
show dewpoints 5 to 10 degrees higher just east into western IA.
CAM solutions show a wide range of possibilities for the forecast
area this evening, from the HRRR which has consistently shown next
to nothing (maybe some spotty light showers) to the NAM Nest
which depicts a line of storms moving across most of the area, so
confidence isn't particularly high on how things pan out.
Currently, thinking convergence along the boundary will be strong
enough for storms to develop in the area with decent enough shear,
mainly in the low levels, to yield some sort of storm
organization. With at least initially steep low level lapse rates
and linear storm structure, expect a damaging wind threat. Though
with storms likely forming in the evening, and the limited
moisture content leading to overall weaker storms, may be tough to
get any severe winds to the surface. So to summarize, thinking
we'll see at least some storm development in the forecast area by
6-7 PM, with a line forming, pushing southeast, and possibly
producing sporadic wind damage, though again, confidence is on the
lower side.

Behind the cold front, expect much cooler weather heading into
the weekend and early next week, with highs in the 60s most days.
Saturday looks to be the coolest, as highs look to struggle to get
out of the 50s. On top of that, some shortwave energy will likely
be sliding through the area and producing precip chances. So
expect a cool and possibly rainy Saturday (we're just the
messengers).

Those precip chances exit by Sunday as surface high pressure
takes over and gives us a dry day. However, the next precip
chances arrive for Monday into Tuesday as another shortwave trough
slides through the area. Models then diverge for the remainder of
the week with some guidance showing a larger scale trough digging
into the central CONUS and eventually cutting off (e.g. 19.12Z
GFS) and other guidance sweeping said trough quickly to the
eastern CONUS and building in upper level ridging (e.g. 19.12Z
ECMWF). The former solution would give us continued precip chances
and cooler weather while the latter would mean the area stays
largely dry and warms back up to near or above average
temperatures by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Some uncertainty on storm coverage this evening as frontal
boundary pushes through and winds shift to northwest then north.
Expect some gusts around 30 knots or more behind the front. As for
TSRA, generally have highest confidence in some storms affecting
KOMA but did not include a prevailing group, just used VCTS. Will
amend if storms develop and it seems like they will affect any of
the sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Miller

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
820 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-201530-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
820 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

A few severe thunderstorms may develop before 2 am Friday across
portions of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. If storms occur,
they could produce large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Thursday

A few thunderstorms may occur Friday night and then again Monday.
Severe storms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected to be needed.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>