Wind Advisory 16, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

252 
WWUS76 KMTR 310500
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
900 PM PST Fri Dec 30 2022

CAZ502>506-311300-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.221231T0900Z-221231T1600Z/
Marin Coastal Range-Sonoma Coastal Range-
North Bay Interior Mountains-
Coastal North Bay...Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
North Bay Interior Valleys-
900 PM PST Fri Dec 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Marin Coastal Range, Sonoma Coastal Range, North Bay 
  Interior Mountains, Coastal North Bay, Including Point Reyes 
  National Seashore and North Bay Interior Valleys.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 8 AM PST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of strong winds will accompany a
  frontal passage overnight into early Saturday morning. During
  this period of heavy rain, the combination of strong winds and
  saturated soils may bring down trees and limbs causing possible
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ006-508>510-512>515-529-311300-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.221231T0900Z-221231T1800Z/
San Francisco-San Francisco Bay Shoreline-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-East Bay Interior Valleys-
Santa Cruz Mountains-Santa Clara Valley...including San Jose-
Eastern Santa Clara Hills-East Bay Hills-Northern Monterey Bay-
900 PM PST Fri Dec 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of California. 

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM PST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of strong winds will accompany a
  frontal passage overnight into early Saturday morning. During
  this period of heavy rain, the combination of strong winds and
  saturated soils may bring down trees and limbs causing possible
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ516>518-528-530-311300-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.221231T1200Z-221231T2100Z/
Southern Salinas Valley...Arroyo Seco...and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
Mountains of San Benito and Interior Monterey County including
Pinnacles National Park-
Northern Salinas Valley...Hollister Valley...and Carmel Valley-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
900 PM PST Fri Dec 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southern Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco, and Lake San 
  Antonio, Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest, 
  Mountains of San Benito and Interior Monterey County including 
  Pinnacles National Park, Northern Salinas Valley, Hollister 
  Valley, and Carmel Valley and Southern Monterey Bay and Big 
  Sur Coast.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM PST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of strong winds will accompany a
  frontal passage overnight into early Saturday morning. During
  this period of heavy rain, the combination of strong winds and
  saturated soils may bring down trees and limbs causing possible
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/mtr

670 
WWUS76 KMTR 311014
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
214 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

CAZ502>506-311600-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-221231T1600Z/
Marin Coastal Range-Sonoma Coastal Range-
North Bay Interior Mountains-
Coastal North Bay...Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
North Bay Interior Valleys-
214 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Marin Coastal Range, Sonoma Coastal Range, North Bay 
  Interior Mountains, Coastal North Bay, Including Point Reyes 
  National Seashore and North Bay Interior Valleys.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM PST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of strong winds will accompany a 
  frontal passage overnight into early Saturday morning. During 
  this period of heavy rain, the combination of strong winds and 
  saturated soils may bring down trees and limbs causing 
  possible power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ006-508>510-512>515-529-311630-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-221231T1800Z/
San Francisco-San Francisco Bay Shoreline-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-East Bay Interior Valleys-
Santa Cruz Mountains-Santa Clara Valley...including San Jose-
Eastern Santa Clara Hills-East Bay Hills-Northern Monterey Bay-
214 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of California. 

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of strong winds will accompany a 
  frontal passage overnight into early Saturday morning. During 
  this period of heavy rain, the combination of strong winds and 
  saturated soils may bring down trees and limbs causing 
  possible power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ516>518-528-530-311630-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.221231T1200Z-221231T2100Z/
Southern Salinas Valley...Arroyo Seco...and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
Mountains of San Benito and Interior Monterey County including
Pinnacles National Park-
Northern Salinas Valley...Hollister Valley...and Carmel Valley-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
214 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southern Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco, and Lake San 
  Antonio, Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest, 
  Mountains of San Benito and Interior Monterey County including 
  Pinnacles National Park, Northern Salinas Valley, Hollister 
  Valley, and Carmel Valley and Southern Monterey Bay and Big 
  Sur Coast.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of strong winds will accompany a 
  frontal passage overnight into early Saturday morning. During 
  this period of heavy rain, the combination of strong winds and 
  saturated soils may bring down trees and limbs causing 
  possible power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/mtr

401 
WWUS76 KMTR 311550
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
750 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

CAZ502>506-311700-
/O.EXP.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-221231T1600Z/
Marin Coastal Range-Sonoma Coastal Range-
North Bay Interior Mountains-
Coastal North Bay...Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
North Bay Interior Valleys-
750 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM PST THIS MORNING...

The gusty winds are continuing to weaken across the North Bay.
Therefore, the wind advisory will expire at 8 am.

$$

CAZ006-508>510-512>515-529-311800-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-221231T1800Z/
San Francisco-San Francisco Bay Shoreline-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-East Bay Interior Valleys-
Santa Cruz Mountains-Santa Clara Valley...including San Jose-
Eastern Santa Clara Hills-East Bay Hills-Northern Monterey Bay-
750 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Local
  gusts up to 55 mph over the higher terrain.

* WHERE...Portions of California.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of strong winds will accompany a 
  frontal passage overnight into early Saturday morning. During 
  this period of heavy rain, the combination of strong winds and 
  saturated soils may bring down trees and limbs causing 
  possible power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ516>518-528-530-312100-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-221231T2100Z/
Southern Salinas Valley...Arroyo Seco...and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
Mountains of San Benito and Interior Monterey County including
Pinnacles National Park-
Northern Salinas Valley...Hollister Valley...and Carmel Valley-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
750 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southern Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco, and Lake San 
  Antonio, Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest, 
  Mountains of San Benito and Interior Monterey County including 
  Pinnacles National Park, Northern Salinas Valley, Hollister 
  Valley, and Carmel Valley and Southern Monterey Bay and Big 
  Sur Coast.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of strong winds will accompany a 
  frontal passage overnight into early Saturday morning. During 
  this period of heavy rain, the combination of strong winds and 
  saturated soils may bring down trees and limbs causing 
  possible power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/mtr

861 
WWUS76 KMTR 311740
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
940 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

CAZ006-508>510-512>515-529-312100-
/O.EXT.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-221231T2100Z/
San Francisco-San Francisco Bay Shoreline-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-East Bay Interior Valleys-
Santa Cruz Mountains-Santa Clara Valley...including San Jose-
Eastern Santa Clara Hills-East Bay Hills-Northern Monterey Bay-
940 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Local 
  gusts up to 55 mph over the higher terrain.

* WHERE...The greater Bay Area, strongest winds coast and hills.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of strong winds will accompany a 
  frontal passage through early this afternoon. During 
  this period of heavy rain, the combination of strong winds and 
  saturated soils may bring down trees and limbs causing 
  possible power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ516>518-528-530-010045-
/O.EXT.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-230101T0100Z/
Southern Salinas Valley...Arroyo Seco...and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
Mountains of San Benito and Interior Monterey County including
Pinnacles National Park-
Northern Salinas Valley...Hollister Valley...and Carmel Valley-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
940 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central Coast, strongest winds coast and hills.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of strong winds will accompany a 
  frontal passage through this afternoon. During this period of
  heavy rain, the combination of strong winds and saturated soils
  may bring down trees and limbs causing possible power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/mtr

093 
WWUS76 KMTR 312055
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1255 PM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

CAZ006-508>510-512>515-529-312200-
/O.EXP.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-221231T2100Z/
San Francisco-San Francisco Bay Shoreline-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-East Bay Interior Valleys-
Santa Cruz Mountains-Santa Clara Valley...including San Jose-
Eastern Santa Clara Hills-East Bay Hills-Northern Monterey Bay-
1255 PM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

The storngest winds have now ended across the Bay Area and will
continue to slowly ease through the rest of this afternoon and
early evening.

$$

CAZ516>518-528-530-010100-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-230101T0100Z/
Southern Salinas Valley...Arroyo Seco...and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
Mountains of San Benito and Interior Monterey County including
Pinnacles National Park-
Northern Salinas Valley...Hollister Valley...and Carmel Valley-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
1255 PM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central Coast, strongest winds coast and hills.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of strong winds will accompany a 
  frontal passage through this afternoon. During this period of 
  heavy rain, the combination of strong winds and saturated 
  soils may bring down trees and limbs causing possible power 
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/mtr

398 
WWUS76 KMTR 010049
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
449 PM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

CAZ516>518-528-530-010200-
/O.EXP.KMTR.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-230101T0100Z/
Southern Salinas Valley...Arroyo Seco...and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
Mountains of San Benito and Interior Monterey County including
Pinnacles National Park-
Northern Salinas Valley...Hollister Valley...and Carmel Valley-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
449 PM PST Sat Dec 31 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

The strongest winds have ocurred and will slowly ease behind the
front overnight.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/mtr

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
951 AM PST Fri Dec 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of rain will continues across the region today,
heavy rain and gusty winds will develop late tonight and into New
Year's Eve day, with flooding expected, as a cold front moves
through the region. While dry and cooler conditions will develop
in time to ring in the New Year and prevail through New Year's
Day, a series of storms will move across Northern California next
week, bringing more wet weather as well as periods of gusty winds
and potential flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 9:49 AM PST Friday...Even though the radar
doesnt look impressive this morning light rain continues to fall
throughout the region. The atmosphere is essentially saturated and
its not taking much lift to wring out moisture and produce rain.
Were in the warm sector of the incoming atmospheric river and
persistent southwest winds into the coastal range is producing
ideal upslope flow with steady rain continuing to fall in the
coastal ranges from Sonoma to Monterey county.

The main AR is currently up near the Oregon border and will start
to drift southward later this evening and overnight. Look for
steady rain to increase in the North Bay this evening and then
really ramp up overnight. So today is the last chance for final
storm preparations such as clearing out storm gutters and debris.

Surface front will move into the North Bay after midnight then
into the Bay Area from roughly 12-15z and finally into the Central
Coast late morning and early afternoon hours of Saturday. One bit
of good news is the system looks to be fairly fast moving and
progressive so not expecting the AR to stall or waver over any
given area. Have just looked over the updated RFC flood potential
and right now we do not expect our mainstem rivers to flood. That
being said there will be rapid rises on the mainstem rivers. Given
the saturated soils, persistent rain and expected heavy rain
episode with the frontal passage we do expect several creeks to
overflow their banks on Saturday as the front moves through. Thus
the Flood Watch remains in effect from tonight into Saturday
throughout the region. Will update the Hydrology section below
shortly so continue to check that section out for latest hydro
thoughts.

In general at least another 1.0-1.5 inches for the valleys with
2-4 inches for the hills and locally higher amounts as the front
moves through. Will also need to look over wind potential as the
boundary moves through. Winds in the 40-50 mph range for the hills
looks reasonable but the stability profile may not allow for good
mixing down. Will continue to assess need for any wind headlines
as trees may topple more easily in the saturated soils.

Rain will end abruptly in the North Bay by afternoon, the Bay Area
by late afternoon and the Central Coast by evening for any planned
NYE activities.

Sunday will be a reset day with dry and mostly sunny weather. Take
the day to clear up any storm damage and get ready for the next
round.

Rain returns Monday. This will be a colder, more traditional mid-
winter system (i.e. not an atmospheric river). Early rain
estimates for Monday looks like 0.25-0.50 for the valleys with up
to an inch for the hills. So no flooding concerns but it wont
allow the soils to dry and water will continue to flow into the
streams and rivers.

Break day Tuesday then a potentially strong Atmospheric river
later Weds into Thursday. Could be on par or stronger then
tomorrows storm with several inches of rain likely. Models
indicate more storms possible beyond that so this can be the type
of pattern that eventually leads to mainstem river flooding.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM PST Friday...Water vapor imagery
continues to show a warm front spreading across Northern
California tonight. Given that the 00z KOAK sounding showed a very
saturated sounding, with precipitable water values already
sitting at 1.15 inches, not surprised that most observation sites
are reporting light to moderate rain at this time. Radar imagery
shows light rain to moderate rain falling the majority of Northern
California at this time. Most valley locations have picked up
anywhere from 0.1 to 0.25 inches in the past 6 hours, but a few
favored mountain locations are upwards of 0.5 inches. Ben Lomond
is one of the higher spots with 0.59 inches. Meanwhile,
temperatures have actually been on the rise tonight, with several
climate locations reporting their max temperatures for today just
before midnight. In fact, most locations are running 3 to 7
degrees warmer than this time last night, with temperatures in the
50s at this time. Expect these mild and wet conditions to prevail
through today, with periods of light to moderate rain continuing.

The primary concern for this forecast package will be with the
warm front truly sagging over the region, followed closely by the
cold front which will dig along the Northern California Coast
tonight and into the day on Saturday. This will be a dynamic and
potent system, with a strong moisture tap. The TPW imagery shows
the moisture tap extending back to just north of Hawaii, with
precipitable water values in excess of 1.4 inches. Besides the
midlevel dynamics and instability, the models are also showing
the potential for a surface low to develop and deepen along the
Northern California Coast tonight. Therefore, expect rain rates to
intensify, with periods of heavy rain to develop overnight
tonight and through the midday on New Year's Eve day. Given the
midlevel instability, cannot rule out some isolated thunderstorms
either late tonight or early tomorrow morning. At this time, 925
and 850 mb winds also increase to 40 to 50 kts with the front, so
expect the higher elevations to see some pretty good gusts with
the frontal passage. With the saturated soils, these windy
conditions could topple trees, and potentially create power issue.

By the time all is said and done late in the day tomorrow, most
areas will see an additional 1 to 3 inches in the valleys, with 4
to 6 inches of rain possible in the coastal mountains. It isn't
out of the question that locally higher amounts will occur either,
if this moisture plume stalls over any part of the area for a bit.
Considering the recent rains, the soils are saturated. Therefore,
WPC continues to have much of the California Coast in the
"Slight" risk category for excessive rainfall, and flooding is
expected. Rapid rises on area streams, creeks, and rivers will
occur as well as flooding of low-lying and poorly drained areas.
The USGS has also relayed that sliding of steeper terrain during
periods of heavy rainfall is not out of the question with this
system too. There is also a concern for our area burn scars,
especially the Colorado and Dolan Burn Scars along the Big Sur
coast. For this reason, the Flood Watch remains in effect for our
entire area as well as much of the northern portion of the state.

Now is the time to prepare, even with the light to moderate rains
today.
- Clear storm drains and gutters of any debris.
- If you live near a stream, creek, or river, consider sandbagging.
- Prepare for power outages (having flashlights/batteries ready,
  and ensure your cell phone is fully charged).
- If you live near an area that is prone to shallow mudslides or
  rocks getting dislodged from hillsides, then be prepared in case
  that happens this week.
- If you live near a burn scar, pay attention to local officials
  if they ask you to evacuate.
- If you have to evacuate due to flooding or debris flow
  potential, have an emergency go bag ready, that includes
  medicines, important documents, food/water, and other supplies.
- Don't forget to check on your neighbors, and have a plan for
  your pets.
- Flood waters are even hard to see at night, so don't go out if
  you don't need to.

Drier conditions will develop in time to ring in the New Year, and
continue through the day on Sunday. However, flood waters will be
slow to recede. Therefore, check the forecast before heading out.
Otherwise, expect cooler conditions to prevail across the region
during the day on Sunday, with chilly overnight temperatures
expected as well.

The next system will then take aim at Northern California on
Monday. At this time, this system does not look as potent, but it
will bring more rain to the region. The focus then turns to the
Wednesday / Thursday system. While there are some timing questions
with this system, it will once again appears to be a strong
Pacific storm, with a subtropical moisture tap. Even though it is
still early, the models are hinting at another 1 to 3 inches for
valley locations, with 4 to 6 in the mountains. This isn't the
last of the storms either, as the models show another system for
late Friday into Saturday. CPC's 6-10 day as well as the 8-14 day
outlooks both suggest a high likelihood of above normal
precipitation for California and the Central Coast. Palmer

&&

.AVIATION...As of 9:20 AM Friday... For the 18Z TAFs. Generally MVFR-
IFR conditions this morning with intermittent light rain and
drizzle. Intermittent showers and light to moderate southerly winds
expected to persist through the day as a warm front pushes through
the area. Late tonight into Saturday morning, a cold front will push
through the area bringing high winds and intense rain with gusts
reaching 25-35 knots at terminals. A low level jet will also cause
LLWS concerns ahead of the front. Winds turn to the west and
northwest on Saturday as the cold front passes, remaining strong and
gusty.

Vicinity of SFO... IFR for the day with intermittent showers. Winds
will turn to the southwest and pick up as the day progresses, with
gusts up to 25 knots during the day. The main front arrives around
15z with intense rain, gusts up to 33 knots, and LLWS concerns.
Winds turn to the northwest on Saturday and remain strong and gusty
through Saturday afternoon. Ceilings clearing to MVFR as the front
passes.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay... Mix of MVFR and IFR conditions should prevail today,
with intermittent showers. Little improvement expected through the
evening, with more consistent rainfall expected around 15-16z as the
main front approaches, although the most intense rain should come
after the end of the TAF period. Moderate southerly winds today,
picking up overnight with gusts at SNS up to 25 knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...As of 3:00 AM PST Friday...A Flood Watch remains in
effect for Friday evening through Saturday Evening, as flooding
from excessive rainfall is expected.

Moderate to heavy rains will develop late tonight and continue
through Saturday, causing rapid rises along area rivers, streams,
and creeks. Current forecasts for several streams and creeks
across the region to exceed monitor stage if not flood stage.
These sites include, but are not limited to...
In North Bay...
Laguna De Santa Rosa at Stony Point Road Mark West Creek near
Mirabel Heights Willow Brook at Penngrove Park

In East Bay...
Alameda Creek near Niles
Alameda Creek above Div Dam near Sunol
Coyote Creek above Hwy 237 at Milpitas
Pacheco Creek near Dunneville

In the Santa Cruz Mountains...
San Lorenzo River at Big Trees

While no mainstem river flooding is forecast at this time,
mainstem rivers will see rapid rises as well. The Russian River
at Geyserville is forecast to exceed monitor levels, and will be
monitored closely.

Localized flooding is expected, especially in low-lying or poorly
drained areas, such as freeway on- and off- ramps. Localized
flooding is also expect in areas where storm drains have not been
cleared of debris. There is also a concern for mud, rock, and
debris flows, especially near the Glass Burn Scar in Sonoma County
as well as the Colorado Burn Scar, the Dolan Burn Scar, and the
River Burn Scars in Monterey County.

&&

.MARINE...as of 09:50 AM PST Friday...Increasing southwest winds
today with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the northern
waters. Moderate mid period westerly swell is moving through the
waters as well. Deep subtropical  moisture will combine with a
developing low pressure system  reaching the California coastal
waters late tonight and Saturday  morning. A cold front attached
to the low will move across the  coastal waters and bays Saturday
morning with downpours, a slight  chance of thunderstorms and
gusty winds. Post cold frontal winds  remaining strong and gusty
Saturday evening and night. Dry weather for New Years Day then
rain returns Monday and Monday night.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...Flood Watch...CAZ502>506
             SCA...SF Bay
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 3 PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: RW/Palmer
AVIATION: Dial
MARINE: Dial/Lorber

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1138 AM PST FRI DEC 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 AM     FLOOD            1 E DUBLIN              37.71N 121.88W
12/30/2022                   ALAMEDA            CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADWAY FLOODING.

&&

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1139 AM PST FRI DEC 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 AM     FLOOD            2 W UNION CITY          37.61N 122.06W
12/30/2022                   ALAMEDA            CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADWAY FLOODING ON WHIPPLE ROAD.

&&

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1142 AM PST FRI DEC 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 AM     FLOOD            1 S NAPA                38.28N 122.30W
12/30/2022                   NAPA               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADWAY FLOODING GOLDEN GATE DRIVE.

&&

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1145 AM PST FRI DEC 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW LAGUNITAS-FOREST  38.01N 122.70W
12/30/2022                   MARIN              CA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN IN LANES, BLOCKING TRAFFIC. SIR
            FRANCIS DRAKE BLVD.

&&

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1147 AM PST FRI DEC 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 AM     FLOOD            4 E UNION CITY          37.60N 121.95W
12/30/2022                   ALAMEDA            CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MUD, DIRT, ROCK IN ROADWAY BLOCKING BOTH
            LANES OF TRAFFIC. BIG RIGS NOT ABLE TO TURN
            AROUND.

&&

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1150 AM PST FRI DEC 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW SCOTTS VALLEY     37.02N 122.03W
12/29/2022                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES, CAUSING ROAD
            CLOSURE AT LA MADRONA DR.

&&

AC