Small Craft Advisory 166, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
205 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Little change in the weather pattern through Thursday,
meaning cool nearshore and hot and dry across the interior.
Slightly cooler on Friday as a disturbance passes to the north.
Potential for sneaker waves and dangerous rip currents through
this evening due to long period southerly swell.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 02:05 PM PDT Wednesday...Water vapor imagery
continues to show California situated between a cut off low to our
west and the Four Corners high. As a result, sunny skies are
prevailing across the region today, with the exception of the
immediate coast, where some low clouds linger. For the most part,
most locations are within 2 degrees of where they were at this
time yesterday, with very warm conditions prevailing across our
inland areas. Even the onshore pressure gradient is within 0.2 mb
of this time yesterday, so expect a nice onshore breeze prevailing
through this evening. Also expect another relatively early return
of the low clouds this evening, with patchy fog developing
overnight tonight once again.

The upper level low will start to drift towards the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, which may start to suppress the upper level
ridge a little. However, coastal areas will remain under the
influence of the marine air, with very warm conditions prevailing
once again for our inland locations. Temperatures may be a degree
or two cooler across the inland areas, but the more noticeable
cool down will take place on Friday for our inland locations, as
the upper level low moves inland across the Pacific Northwest.
This upper level low will bring stronger onshore flow to the
region as well as help deep the marine layer a bit. Unfortunately,
most inland spots will still be quite warm.

Temperatures will start to moderate a bit for the weekend, as high
pressure rebuilds over the region and expands up into the Pacific
Northwest. This will bring warmer conditions once again to our
inland locations, while the coast remains cool thanks to the
marine layer. The ensembles are showing at another cutoff low
developing over the Pacific next week, but the position of this
low is still somewhat in question. As such, really don't think
much will change for us, as the marine layer remains along the
coast and inland areas will be warm. Models are also hinting at
some upper level moisture potentially moving into the region by
the middle of next week. It is still too early to say whether or
not this will trigger anything, but it is worth watching.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 11:35 AM PDT Wednesday...For the 18Z TAFs. The
marine layer continues to linger around 1000 ft along the coast
but the stratus has retreated back to the coast for most TAF
sites. This allows VFR conditions until about 03Z for most TAF
sites except sites near Monterey Bay. MVFR/IFR cigs start to cycle
back in after 04Z for most TAF sites. KLVK remains the only site
with VFR conditions through the TAF period. Afternoon seabreeze
returns today.

Vicinity of KSFO...Mostly clear skies from 18Z to 02Z then Cigs
return and with moderate confidence that Cigs start lowering from
MVFR to IFR conditions through Thursday morning. Gusty winds
appear around 21Z this afternoon and gradually diminish this
evening.

KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay...VFR prevailing through the afternoon. IFR to LIFR
cigs over the Monterey bay area are expected to return this
evening through the remainder of the TAF period. Periods of BR are
expected to occur towards 08Z and lasting till around 16Z.
Moderate seabreeze expected this afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through
this evening. A long period southerly swell will continue to
impact the region, increasing the risk of sneaker waves and
strong rip currents for south facing beaches. Strong currents also
possible for west facing beaches. Individuals going to the coast
should use caution and are advised to remain off of exposed
coastal rocks and jetties. This situation will also bring
dangerous swimming and surfing conditions along with the potential
of some beach erosion.

&&

.MARINE...As of 10:41 AM PDT Wednesday...Moderate to strong
northwesterly winds continue to generate steep fresh swell. A long
period southerly swell also continues to impact our coastal
waters but will slowly diminish through the end of the week. The
strongest winds will persist near coastal jets, but winds will
increase across the waters tonight and tomorrow, with hazardous
conditions for Small Craft. Near gale conditions are expected
along the coastal jet area south of Point Pinos Thursday evening
into Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...SF Bay from 3 PM
             SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: Palmer
AVIATION: SO
MARINE: Lorber

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