Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
214 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure continues to rotate across the region,
helping to keep conditions unstable and moist. These are the
ingredients that are currently producing thunderstorms across
eastern Washington into the Panhandle of Idaho, and will also
produce thunderstorms across western Montana and north central
Idaho through the afternoon and evening. The area with the
greatest threat for storm development will be along and north of
Interstate 90 (across all of northwest Montana), as well as south
of I-90 around the Missoula and Bitterroot valley into the Seeley
Lake/Avon/Ovando region east to the Divide. That being said,
thunderstorm chances will exist just about everywhere, but the
aforementioned locations stand the greatest chance of being
impacted by storms. Abundant lightning, in addition to heavy
rainfall, will be the two main threats from any storm that
develops today. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will also be
possible. As this is a popular day for outdoor activities, we
suggest keeping an eye on the radar and be alert to quickly
changing conditions to keep you and your loved ones safe.

Conditions will remain quiet for the first half of Tuesday, but
will once again become unstable in the afternoon and evening as
the region remains under the influence of the same area of low
pressure. The same can also be said for Wednesday afternoon and
evening as well. Expect temperatures to warm a few degrees each
day, with highs returning to the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday.

Southwest flow aloft with waves of energy passing through the
region will continue into Friday. This should keep the pattern of
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms going. Precipitation
chances could linger into Saturday as both ECMWF and GFS show a
shortwave trough impacting the area with more rain chances. GFS is
much more robust with this system and would bring more
substantial precipitation than the other operational models. Right
now, a blended model solution with more modest precip chances
seems to be the best bet. Beyond Saturday, the Pacific trough is
expected to break down and the flow will shift more zonal with
slight ridging over the Northern Rockies. Models differ on exactly
where the ridge will set up and just how strong it will be. For
now, it looks likely that the pattern will be turning drier into
next week with warm temperatures in place. Temperatures will
likely be above seasonal normals but extreme heat seems unlikely
during this forecast period. Even the warmest ensemble members
tend to top temperatures out in the lower 90s by next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected area wide this afternoon
and evening. Showers will be present until around 05/05z, with the
best time for thunderstorms between 04/22z and 05/01z. Radar
returns through the day have shown spotty showers across the area.
With more instability during the afternoon hours, expect activity
to turn more convective with storms possible. With storms that
build, expect gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and small hail. There
is a small probability (5%) that some areas will receive a storm
of severe strength, with winds and hail being the threats to
watch for. Expect ceilings to lower during the afternoon and
evening with shower activity. Cloud cover will start to thin out
again after 05/06z. Visibility could briefly fall with periods of
heavy rain. Sustained winds will be on the light side but look for
gusts of 25-35kts with passing showers.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
212 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

MTZ007-043-042045-
Butte/Blackfoot Region MT-Potomac/Seeley Lake Region MT-
212 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Missoula, northern Granite and west central Powell Counties through
245 PM MDT...

At 211 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Ovando, or 15 miles northwest of Drummond, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half-inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ovando and Garnet.

This includes Highway 200 between mile markers 36 and 39.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4680 11334 4686 11346 4706 11328 4693 11302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 228DEG 21KT 4685 11334

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
312 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

MTZ002-043-042145-
West Glacier Region MT-Potomac/Seeley Lake Region MT-
312 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Lake, north
central Missoula, south central Flathead and northwestern Powell
Counties through 345 PM MDT...

At 312 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles east of Ronan, or 24 miles southeast of Polson, moving north at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Condon and Salmon Prairie.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 36 and 49.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
west central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 11360 4747 11383 4775 11375 4770 11337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 202DEG 22KT 4751 11371

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
323 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

MTZ007-042200-
Butte/Blackfoot Region MT-
323 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Powell
County through 400 PM MDT...

At 323 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles west of Helena, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elliston.

This includes Highway 12 Garrison to MacDonald Pass between mile
markers 23 and 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
west central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4657 11232 4654 11230 4647 11231 4646 11232
      4646 11248 4661 11234 4663 11230 4661 11230
      4661 11229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 212DEG 12KT 4654 11233

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
334 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

MTZ006-007-042200-
Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains MT-Butte/Blackfoot Region MT-
334 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Granite
County through 400 PM MDT...

At 334 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Philipsburg, or 24 miles southwest of Drummond,
moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half-inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Granite
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
west central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4630 11339 4634 11356 4659 11349 4658 11328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 193DEG 23KT 4639 11348

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
359 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

MTZ006-007-043-042230-
Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains MT-Butte/Blackfoot Region MT-
Potomac/Seeley Lake Region MT-
359 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Granite
and southwestern Powell Counties through 430 PM MDT...

At 358 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Drummond, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Drummond, Hall and Bearmouth.

This includes Interstate 90 between mile markers 137 and 153.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
west central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4647 11325 4651 11352 4680 11341 4672 11310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 196DEG 27KT 4658 11337

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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