Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2022

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Missoula, MT

July 9, 2022Lake County, Missoula County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 9, 2022, 6:48 PM MDT for Lake County, Missoula County, Montana. It was in force for 14 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 9, 2022, 6:48 PM MDT (00:48 UTC)
Expired
Jul 9, 2022, 7:02 PM MDT
In force
14 min
Issued by
NWS Missoula, MT
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Lake County, MT, Missoula County, MT

The radar

The Missoula radar (KMSX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 9, 2:59 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC7 hr

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 9, 1:38 PM MDT, 5 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 1:38 PM MDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
138 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...A Few Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today...

.DISCUSSION...Satellite loops are showing a ridge of high
pressure re-amplifying as the next shortwave disturbance
approaches the region. Altocumulus clouds are moving into the
region ahead of the shortwave disturbance, which shows a
precursor of storms today. Ingredients for thunderstorms are now
looking quite similar to Friday’s. High surface dew points, warm
temperatures, abundant convective available potential energy, and
deep shear will again cause strong thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the area with a
5 percent probability of severe thunderstorms (1 inch hail or
greater and/or 60 mph+ winds), and a 15 percent probability in
west- central Montana and eastward. If you are going to be
outdoors this afternoon and evening, make sure to have a plan to
quickly go indoors or go to a safe place. Yesterday we had
reports of 2.5 inch hail out of severe storms, and with conditions
being similar today, it certainly possible to see large, damaging
hail again.

Sunday has a much more stable profile with most of the area
expected to be dry and a little cooler than today. Convection
allowing models show isolated showers in Glacier National Park
and near Butte which generally look weak.

High pressure has been consistently showing up in model guidance for
Monday with warm and dry conditions expected.

Model clusters reveal southwesterly flow developing to our west,
causing hot temperatures in north-central Idaho and western
Montana. A plume of monsoon moisture is now showing up for Tuesday
night so a slight chance for storms has been added to the
forecast.

The chance for monsoonal moisture and thunderstorms increases
over the region by the middle and end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms continue as the primary concern
this afternoon and evening with the majority developing between
09/21z and 10/03z. Latest model guidance would suggest that the
strongest storms would primarily be found from Idaho County, Idaho
east and north over much of west-central Montana. The primary
threat would be up to two inch size hail, then strong gusty
winds, lightning and brief heavy rain. Be advised that large hail
was observed yesterday a couple of miles away from the main
reflectivity cores. Storm motion will generally be to the
northeast between 25 and 35 knots, but a few stronger storms may
present more of a deviant motion to the east-northeast. Showers
and thunderstorms will diminish in the late evening. Lastly, watch
for patchy morning fog in the valleys where considerable rain
fell yesterday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 9, 4:45 PM MDT, 2 hours 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
445 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             1 N GRANGEVILLE         45.94N 116.12W
07/08/2022  M1.00 INCH       IDAHO              ID   PUBLIC

&&

AL
Local storm report, Jul 9, 5:25 PM MDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 9, 5:26 PM MDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 9, 5:31 PM MDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 9, 5:49 PM MDT, 59 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 9, 5:51 PM MDT, 57 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 9, 6:36 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOLake24 min
Jul 9, 7:43 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSORavalli17 min
Jul 9, 7:49 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMSOGranite, Missoula, Ravalli26 min
Jul 9, 8:44 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOGranite16 min
Jul 9, 6:59 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOLemhi31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2022Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.