Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
125 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

.DISCUSSION...A very moist atmosphere with some sunshine to start
the day and southwest flow aloft has set us up for another
afternoon and evening of thunderstorms. Recent events have been
handled poorly by weather models, even the high resolution
ensemble modeling systems, so our confidence in those systems is
low right now. They were already doing a poor job of handling a
stray morning thunderstorm across northwest Montana this morning.
For those reasons, we expect to see wider coverage of
thunderstorms, and potentially severe storms than are currently
indicated in the models.

Models indicate the best potential for storms to be over the
Sapphire Mountains and areas eastward. However, moisture and
instability remain over a much larger portion of the region
including as far west as Grangeville, ID. So we expect
thunderstorms to begin in central Idaho and move across western
Montana. Even northwest Montana and Flathead Lake have
thunderstorm potential again this evening. For storms that do
become severe, large hail is the main threat with winds over 60
mph as the secondary threat.

For the longer term, ensembles are still building a ridge over the
northern Rockies region, but ensembles have trended further
eastward with the ridge axis. That means our area will remain
under southwest flow. Even still, the ridge strengthens, and we
are expecting some drier weather across most of the region.
Temperatures will warm up into the upper 80s and mid 90s in
western Montana with near 100F expected in western Idaho County,
ID. This isn't exceptional heat for this region this time of year,
but it is the warmest we've been with such a cool start to summer.
So there is some concern for the risk of heat injuries Tuesday
through Thursday next week for those working outdoors or with heat
sensitivities.

With the southwest monsoon in full effect, some of the high level
moisture work its way into the region late next week. Models agree
well on the break down of the ridge later next week too, which is
the set up for our next round of thunderstorms. The main areas
with thunderstorm potential late next week include central Idaho
and southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...A few showers and thunderstorms have already developed
across portions of northwest Montana and Lemhi county into
southwest Montana. These storms are just the beginning of another
day of widespread convection during the late afternoon into the
evening. All terminals are anticipated to be impacted by storms at
some point this afternoon and evening. KSMN and KBTM appear to
be consistently impacted by convection through the evening hours.
These storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain, hail
and strong erratic winds. The storms will diminish after sunset
with a few lingering across portions of north central Idaho into
west central Montana. The valleys that do receive a decent amount
precipitation today should anticipate the development of fog by
Saturday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
658 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             2 W GRANGEVILLE         45.93N 116.17W
07/08/2022  E1.00 INCH       IDAHO              ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
726 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             3 WNW CLEARWATER        46.05N 115.95W
07/08/2022  E0.25 INCH       IDAHO              ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
728 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             2 E NIMROD              46.70N 113.43W
07/08/2022  E0.88 INCH       GRANITE            MT   PUBLIC

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
745 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             1 ENE CORVALLIS         46.32N 114.10W
07/08/2022  E1.00 INCH       RAVALLI            MT   PUBLIC

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
748 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             5 SSW EVARO             46.96N 114.13W
07/08/2022  E2.50 INCH       MISSOULA           MT   PUBLIC

&&

MW

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