Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Missoula, MT

924 
WWUS85 KMSO 020240
RFWMSO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
840 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022

MTZ104>107-020345-
/O.EXP.KMSO.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220802T0300Z/
Kootenai-Flathead/Glacier Park-West Lolo-Flathead Reservation-
840 PM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* Affected area: Fire Zone 104 (Kootenai). Fire Zone 105 
  (Flathead/Glacier Park). Fire Zone 106 (West Lolo). Fire Zone 
  107 (Flathead Reservation). 


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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
333 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022

.DISCUSSION...Today will likely be the last day of excessive heat
for the Northern Rockies. Temperatures will once again range in
the upper 90s and low 100s in western Montana, and 100-110 in the
valleys of north-central Idaho. As such, the Heat
Warnings/Advisories will remain in place for one more day. Another
shortwave trough, much like the one experienced yesterday will
traverse the apex of the ridge of high pressure this afternoon,
that will bring another round of breezy conditions to the region.
There will be slightly more moisture associated with the wave,
that is expected to kick off a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms over north-central Idaho, south of highway 12, and
across Lemhi County and southwest Montana. Gusty winds up to
around 40 mph will be the main concern, as most of the convection
will be quite dry.

Another wave of energy will swing through the region Tuesday, that
will further weaken the high pressure ridge and push it south and
east. This wave will finally allow temperatures to cool closer to
where we should be this time of the year, but still above normal.
However, this wave will bring another round of gusty winds, along
with very dry conditions. Tuesday is continuing to trend toward
another day of potential critical fire weather concerns, as the
gusty winds coupled with the dry conditions, will be a recipe for
new and existing wildfires to spread quickly. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are also expected in the same locations as today
(Monday), across north-central Idaho and southwest Montana.

Wednesday through Friday, the Northern Rockies will transition
into a southwesterly flow, bringing a slight increase in
atmospheric moisture from the southwest, moistly in the form of
clouds. Forecast models continue to trend away from beneficial
monsoonal moisture making it this far north, that were being
advertised a few days ago. However, some locations across the area
could see some welcome rainfall by this weekend, just not as
widespread as previously thought.

&&

.AVIATION...Clouds will increase across Northern Rockies air space
through Tuesday, particularly for points near KMSO and southward.
Rain showers and some thunderstorms will develop mainly across
southwest Montana and along the Salmon River corridor (KSMN
westward) 01/1800Z-02/0300Z. Wildfire smoke will continue to
reduce visibility at times, particularly for incidents between
KMSO-KSMN, KMSO-KGPI. Winds will gust to 40 knots over terrain by
Tuesday, as a cold front moves across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will redevelop Tuesday afternoon as well, obscuring
terrain and reducing visibility at times.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight Flathead/Mission
     Valleys...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight Kootenai/Cabinet
     Region...Lower Clark Fork Region.

ID...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening Lower Hells
     Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region.

     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening Northern Clearwater
     Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains.

&&