Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Missoula, MT

169 
WWUS85 KMSO 310857
RFWMSO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
257 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022

MTZ110-111-010300-
/O.EXA.KMSO.FW.W.0003.220731T2000Z-220801T0300Z/
Deerlodge/West Beaverhead-East Beaverhead-
257 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
MDT THIS EVENING...

* Affected area:
   Fire Zone 110 (Deerlodge/West Beaverhead).
   Fire Zone 111 (East Beaverhead).

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds, low humidity, and an 
  unstable atmosphere will result in critical fire weather 
  conditions Sunday afternoon and evening. 

* Winds: West to northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to
  30 mph. 

* Minimum humidities: 8 to 15 percent.

&&

$$

MTZ107>109-010300-
/O.CON.KMSO.FW.W.0003.220731T2000Z-220801T0300Z/
Flathead Reservation-East Lolo-Bitterroot-
257 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* Affected area:
   Fire Zone 107 (Flathead Reservation).
   Fire Zone 108 (East Lolo).
   Fire Zone 109 (Bitterroot).

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds, low humidity, and an 
  unstable atmosphere will result in critical fire weather 
  conditions Sunday afternoon and evening. 

* Winds: West to northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 
  to 30 mph. 

* Minimum humidities: 8 to 15 percent.

&&

$$

154 
WWUS85 KMSO 010243
RFWMSO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
843 PM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022

MTZ107>109-010345-
/O.EXP.KMSO.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220801T0300Z/
Flathead Reservation-East Lolo-Bitterroot-
843 PM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* Affected area: Fire Zone 107 (Flathead Reservation). Fire Zone 
  108 (East Lolo). Fire Zone 109 (Bitterroot). 

&&

$$

MTZ110-111-010345-
/O.EXP.KMSO.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220801T0300Z/
Deerlodge/West Beaverhead-East Beaverhead-
843 PM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* Affected area: Fire Zone 110 (Deerlodge/West Beaverhead). Fire 
  Zone 111 (East Beaverhead). 


&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
243 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022

...Heat impacts continue through the weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Heat warnings and advisories remain in effect
through Sunday evening across portions of western Montana and
north central Idaho. Little has changed with the evolution of the
high pressure ridge through the weekend. The upper level ridge
axis will move over the Northern Rockies late today into Sunday.
850mb temperatures, which are often used a proxy to forecast high
temperatures, will increase into the +31-32C range by late this
afternoon. Yesterday, +29-30C 850mb temperatures yielded high
temperatures of 98-104F across west-central and northwest Montana
and 104-111F across lower elevations of Clearwater and Idaho
counties. As the air mass warms via compression under the ridge
axis, we expect temperatures to trend 1-3F higher this afternoon.

The ridge axis will move along the Continental Divide Sunday
afternoon. Little to any trend is expected with Sunday high
temperatures compared to Saturday. Bone dry and breezy conditions
will impact west-central and northwest Montana. Westerly wind
gusts of 20-30 mph will develop between 100-900pm MDT. Be mindful
of fire danger and local burn bans, as new fires may spread
quickly.

Monsoon moisture will begin to move into southern Idaho County,
Lemhi County, and the Anaconda-Pintler Mountains Sunday afternoon.
Sufficient mid level moisture will be present to allow for
isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop. A deep dry sub-
cloud layer will promote gusty outflow winds with any convective
development.

Model guidance has come into better agreement with the evolution
of the weather pattern Monday into Tuesday next week compared to
24hrs ago. A shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest
coast Monday afternoon. Southwesterly flow will transport monsoon
moisture northward across the Northern Rockies. A favorable
environment will take shape for showers and thunderstorms as
atmospheric instability increases with precipitable water values
reaching the one inch mark. High temperatures on Monday will still
remain abnormally hot, but will trend 3-8F cooler, particularly
for areas across north-central Idaho.

The ridge will breakdown Tuesday as a pacific cold front tracks
across the Northern Rockies. Temperatures will cool 10-15F behind
the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along
with an increase in westerly winds. Seasonal temperatures are
expected Wednesday into Friday. /Lukinbeal

&&

.AVIATION...The hot and dry weather will continue through the
weekend. Mostly sunny skies along with breezy afternoon and
evening winds up to around 20kts are expected for KMSO, KBTM and
KSMN. KSMN will continue to be impacted by wildfire smoke, from a
fire burning north of the terminal.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night Flathead/Mission
     Valleys...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night Kootenai/Cabinet
     Region...Lower Clark Fork Region.

ID...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday Lower Hells
     Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region.

     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday Northern Clearwater
     Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains.

&&