High Wind Warning 4, NWS Missoula, MT

653 
WWUS75 KMSO 182354
NPWMSO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
554 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

MTZ005-006-043-190100-
/O.CAN.KMSO.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-220719T0200Z/
Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys-Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains-
Potomac/Seeley Lake Region-
554 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts will remain but will continue to decrease through the 
evening.

$$

MTZ003-190100-
/O.EXP.KMSO.LW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-220719T0000Z/
Flathead/Mission Valleys-
554 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
FLATHEAD LAKE...

Winds will continue to decrease through the evening.

$$

MTZ007-190200-
/O.CON.KMSO.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220719T0200Z/
Butte/Blackfoot Region-
554 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Butte, Georgetown Lake, Highway 12 Garrison to 
  Elliston, Homestake Pass, and MacDonald Pass.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

IDZ009-010-190200-
/O.CON.KMSO.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-220719T0200Z/
Western Lemhi County-Eastern Lemhi County-
554 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Shoup, Bannock Pass, Highway 28 Tendoy to Lone Pine, 
  Highway 93 Lost Trail Pass to Gibbonsville, Lemhi Pass, and 
  Salmon.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

145 
WWUS75 KMSO 190151
NPWMSO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
751 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

MTZ007-190300-
/O.EXP.KMSO.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220719T0200Z/
Butte/Blackfoot Region-
751 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

Winds will continue to decrease.

$$

IDZ009-010-190300-
/O.EXP.KMSO.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-220719T0200Z/
Western Lemhi County-Eastern Lemhi County-
751 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

Winds will continue to decrease.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
354 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

.DISCUSSION...
The record high temperature of 100 degrees Fahrenheit was tied in
Missoula yesterday. It's going to be another hot day across the
region today ahead of the next cold front, but likely a few
degrees cooler than Saturday. Also similar to Saturday will be the
development of spotty showers in the afternoon, mainly in
southwest Montana. The convection allowing models show the
possible showers and thunderstorms mainly between 2 and 6 pm MDT.
The Storm Prediction Center has Butte just inside the marginal
risk area for the potential of damaging winds.

A robust storm system is set to impact the region on Monday. A
closed low will track near the US/Canada border bringing
precipitation, and likely of more impact, strong, gusty winds.
Temperatures will also be significantly cooler on Monday and
Monday night. As the cold front passes on Monday, a strong surface
pressure gradient will bring strong winds around the region.
Surface winds will be further influenced by the mixing down of
strong mid-level winds. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement for
gust potential exceeding 40 mph in most locations. The possibility
exists for wind gusts exceeding 50 mph at times, especially in
southwest Montana. Forecast GFS soundings for Butte show possible
mixing down of 50 mph winds. Precipitation is also anticipated
with the passing of Monday’s storm system. The best dynamics for
showers and possible thunderstorms should be in northwest
Montana, closer to the center of the low pressure system. Over the
past few days most guidance had been keeping any precipitation in
northwest Montana. That thinking has started to shift with newest
runs. The models now show precipitation farther south across the
region on Monday, including much of western Montana. With the
strength of this storm system, and the track likely being farther
south than initially anticipated, we have increased precipitation
chances across southern portions of the area on Monday.

Beginning on Tuesday, models are in good agreement for a
drier weather period for the Northern Rockies. Mid-level flow
turns more zonal with some slight ridging. After cooler temps on
Monday it appears things will be warming back up by mid- week in
association with the ridge. In addition to warmer temperatures,
conditions look to be very dry. GFS and ECMWF show very low
relative humidities for much of the late week period. Precipitable
water values could be as low as 10-20% of normal by mid-week,
especially in southwest Montana. Models hint at a return to
southwest flow aloft by the end of the week, which could bring
back precipitation chances if enough moisture is present.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Lemhi
County/Salmon to southwest Montana including Butte from 17/2000z
through 18/0300Z. Strong, gusty, and erratic winds are
anticipated with these storms. Background wind will be stronger in
these locations today as compared with Saturday. Very strong
westerly winds between 30 and 45 knots are expected, along with
isolated showers and thunderstorms on Monday across southwest
Montana, Lemhi County, and along the Continental Divide.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...None.
&&