Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
328 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon south and
more isolated convection north decreasing by sunset.

2. Patchy fog possible late tonight into Thursday morning,
especially in locations that receive afternoon rainfall.

3. More coverage of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall.

Discussion:

Weak surface high pressure was located over the southern
Appalachians this afternoon with somewhat higher 500 mb heights.
Temperatures were in the upper 80s to lower 90s at mid afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms were developing over the southern
plateau and eastern Tennessee mountains but were just isolated at
this time. With high dew points in the lower 70s heat index values
are in the mid to upper 90s. For the rest of the afternoon and
early evening showers and thunderstorms should increase and become
more scattered. The storms are moving slowly north to northwest.
The airmass is unstable with MLCAPE 1500 to 2500 J/KG and
precipitable water values are 1.4 in the northeast to 1.7 in
southwest. The convection should decrease early this evening and
there will be some fog forming late. Thursday a weak frontal
system moves into the Ohio Valley and a sharp upper trough will
dip south into Kentucky. The southerly flow around the Bermuda
high will increase moisture ahead of this trough and help to
enhance shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon and
evening. Highs Thursday should still reach the upper 80s to lower
90s before convection develops. Isolated areas may have locally
heavy rainfall but don't think it will be widespread. However
flash flood guidance numbers are still low across southwest
Virginia and parts of east Tennessee.

TD

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

1. Possibility of showers/storms each day through the extended
period--localized flooding possible if stronger storms train over
the same areas.

2. Highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s for most of the TN
Valley.

Discussion:

Thursday Night through the weekend:  A frontal boundary looks to
approach the region and be draped across MO/IL/OH Thursday night and
into Friday before lifting off to the northeast. An upper level
ridge will be over the Central US while the Bermuda high is to our
East. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day,
with higher chances for activity during the afternoon and evening
hours. Most of the rain we expect to see will be diurnally driven
and will likely dissipate once the sun goes down, but some of this
convection may linger into the overnight hours. Localized flooding
may be a concern in areas where stronger storms develop and train
over the same area.

Monday through Wednesday: Another front is expected to move down
through the Midwest and Ohio River Valley on Monday. A trough dips
down to us from the North on Tuesday, and by Wednesday we see this
front approach our area, but it is likely to stall somewhere near
the KY/TN line on Wednesday morning or afternoon. Rain chances stay
in the picture through the middle of next week.

Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s for most of East
TN, with heat index values nearing 100 degrees in some places.

BW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions expected this afternoon with thunderstorms in the
vicinity from mid afternoon at CHA and TYS through sunset tonight.
Fog is expected near TYS and TRI early Thursday with MVFR
conditions at TYS for a few hours and IFR conditions at TRI. The
best chance for showers Thursday morning will be at TYS and CHA.
Added prob30 group for those sites last few hours of forecast.

TD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  91  73  91  73 /  10  40  20  50  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  91  72  89  72 /  20  50  20  70  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  90  72  89  71 /  10  50  20  70  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  89  69  86  69 /  10  50  20  70  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
334 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-041930-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
334 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 /234 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A wet pattern will be in place this time period with showers and
thunderstorms possible day or overnight, although activity will
peak during the afternoon and evening hours. Localized flooding
will be possible at times if stronger storms move slowly or train
over the same areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

TD/BW

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